The Milwaukee Bucks got off to a bumpy start to the season. Initial difficulties were to be expected, but superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is already sounding the alarm. And the two-time MVP isn’t entirely wrong.
Just a week ago, Giannis Antetokounmpo was quite relaxed after an unconvincing victory in Brooklyn (119:115), which the Greek secured with two big plays in defense: “We know our identity and now we’ll see what works. We want to be good at everything.” The two-time MVP was primarily referring to the defense, which was significantly weakened after Jrue Holiday’s departure.
After a narrow win in Detroit and two defeats in Indiana and Orlando, things sounded completely different. “Sometimes you just have to sacrifice your body and get in the way,” Giannis said after the Magic’s 97-112 loss. “We’re too lazy and don’t help ourselves in defense. And when we lose the ball, we stop and complain. This has to stop. We can’t feel sorry for ourselves anymore.”
It was the usual honest words from Antetokounmpo, who himself sees that there is a lot of work waiting for the Bucks after nine games. Admittedly, new star Damian Lillard was missing in both defeats with a calf injury, but even with the point guard there were clear deficits that cannot be overlooked and will not disappear any time soon. Although the Bucks still have a positive record (5-4), with the exception of the Miami game (+8), the victories were against Philadelphia (+1), New York (+5), Brooklyn (+4) and Detroit ( +2) all only caught at the last minute.
Milwaukee Bucks: Still experimenting on defense
The main reason for this is the shaky defense, which only ranks 25th in the league. It was clear that without Holiday (4th last year) they would have to make compromises here, but it was sometimes shocking how unsorted and sometimes helpless Milwaukee acted at this end of the field, even though they had two potential all-defensive players in Giannis and Brook Lopez team has players in its ranks.
Another factor here is new coach Adrian Griffin, who is a rookie on the sidelines. You could blame former coach Mike Budenholzer for a lot (especially his playoff adjustments), but in the regular season his teams were well-oiled machines with clear principles that always provided a good foundation. For years, the tried and tested drop defense with Lopez, i.e. the center sinking when defending the pick’n’roll, was played; only over time did more switching and experimentation occur. Nevertheless, with one exception, Milwaukee was always in the top ten.
Milwaukee Bucks: The defense stats of the past few years
Griffin, on the other hand, initially chose a different approach; he initially defended more aggressively, as he did under Jason Kidd, which allowed for more rotation and more open throws. The result was, among other things, a terrible defeat in Toronto, who are certainly not a great offensive team and still managed to put 130 points on the scoreboard.
Milwaukee Bucks: Suddenly there is a lack of defensive guards
Only when the players intervened did Griffin change his system and rely more on Lopez in the drop, who immediately thanked him with 7 blocks against the Knicks. “Sometimes as coaches we want to be too clever,” Griffin said afterwards. “The players aren’t always right, but you should always have an open ear for them.”
Of course, that doesn’t solve all the problems, as the following games also showed. For years, Milwaukee had outstanding perimeter defenders, first with Eric Bledsoe and then with Holiday, but they are no longer in the squad. The Bucks are regularly eaten by scoring guards, often with little resistance. The most extreme example of this was Malik Beasley, who didn’t even make it into the playoff rotation with the Lakers and is now seeing a lot of minutes with the Bucks. His “defense” against Tyrese Haliburton went viral and symbolized the start of the Bucks’ season.
Milwaukee makes it too easy for their opponents to score points. Not only are there a lack of defenders in the small positions, but the Bucks are also the worst team when it comes to transition defense. That’s a mix that isn’t promising, but at the same time it must be noted that, according to Cleaning the Glass, the Bucks have the second-best shot pattern in the league, but hit opponents above average (three percent better eFG% than expected).
Milwaukee Bucks: Terry Stotts’ short interlude
This will level off somewhat over a season, but there are still enough reasons to at least have doubts. It was a courageous decision by the franchise to select a rookie coach, which is also why the Bucks hired Terry Stotts, a long-time head coach, who also worked successfully with Lillard for years.
However, after just four months, Stotts handed in his resignation shortly before the start of the season, according to rumors after an incident at a shootaround when Stotts defied Griffin’s instructions and was then rounded off in front of the entire team.
That doesn’t mean much, but at the same time it shows that Griffin is still busy earning respect. The coach supposedly has the support of the team. However, it has not been a happy debut for the coach, who is already feeling headwinds. Despite the enormous firepower of the two superstars, it wasn’t a revelation offensively either.
Milwaukee Bucks: Where’s the Lillard-Giannis pick ‘n’ roll?
What is particularly surprising is that the Bucks rarely run the Lillard-Antetokounmpo pick’n’roll, which is hard to defend in theory. In fact, Lillard assisted just eight of the Greek’s baskets in 148 minutes together (net rating: -4.8!). The Bucks’ style also plays a role here, as they continue to rely heavily on Antetokounmpo to switch quickly after grabbing the rebound and there are only a few real halfcourt sets. By the way, it can look that easy.
However, the health of Khris Middleton, who is still playing with a minute limit and is hardly dispensable due to the lack of depth in the squad, is not in Griffin’s control. However, if Middleton continues to only play 20 minutes per game, that will be a big problem. In general, the forward is no longer the all-star he was two years ago after his knee problems, and this is particularly evident in defense, where he lacks liveliness.
Nevertheless, Middleton is of course part of the Bucks’ plans. It’s still concerning that the quartet of Giannis, Lillard, Middleton and Lopez currently have a negative net rating in just under 50 minutes (-2.8 with an offensive rating of just 103!). Ultimately, these four should be the ones who pull the coals out of the fire; the squad is tailored to them.
Milwaukee Bucks: In desperate need of an upgrade
The season is of course still young and the sample is small, but there are increasing signs that Milwaukee still needs to do something between now and February to at least make minor adjustments to the squad. But the fact that the Bucks threw (almost) everything into the Lillard trade doesn’t help here. The Bucks do not have more than one pick swap and two second-round picks available.
First, the stars have to find each other, otherwise possible trade scenarios are not worth mentioning. The current team is the one that was considered good enough to give Giannis a second chance at a ring. But the Bucks are currently a long way from that. Luckily it’s only November, but the days when you hardly had to watch Bucks games because you knew this machine anyway are over for now. “It’s not us, it’s not the Milwaukee Bucks,” said Giannis after the Magic bankruptcy. “We have to do better.”
2023-11-13 08:50:00
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