Editorial of the ARA on the survey of the CEO PSC independence

The CEO survey published the day after Pedro Sánchez’s inauguration has a special relevance, because it paints a different scenario than we have now. It is true that the polls had already detected for some time the good moment of the PSC in Catalonia, confirmed also by the good results in the municipal elections and, above all, in the general elections. And in parallel, the problems of independence in general were seen. The drop in ERC in the municipal and Spanish leagues, along with the stagnation of Junts and the poor results of the CUP, was already a warning sign. Now the survey of the CEO tells us that the PSC would be the first force by far in the Parliament, with between 39 and 45 seats, and would thus break the tie with the ERC that had occurred until now in the polls and also in the Parliament, where both they have 33 seats. The Republicans would remain more or less the same, with between 29 and 34 seats, while in this case it would be Junts who would have a more pronounced decrease and would go from the current 32 to between 19 and 24. This, added to the decrease of the CUP, which could lose up to 5 seats and stay with 4, is what means that, for the first time in many years, independence may lose the majority in Parliament.

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It is true that this majority, which is the one that voted for the investiture of Pere Aragonès in 2021, is now not operational in Parliament, especially following the departure of the Governmental Councils. But that would not stop it from being a politically significant event. In addition, without this possible sum, all other alternatives would go through a government with the PSC and the figure of Salvador Illa, whose main objective is to regain the presidency of the Generalitat for the Socialists. In fact, the PSC’s good results in Catalonia are Pedro Sánchez’s great argument to justify his policy of detente with independence. And placing Illa in the Plaça de Sant Jaume, unseating an independentist president, would be a very important triumph for him.

For Sánchez, placing Illa in the Plaça de Sant Jaume, unseating an independentist president, would be a very important triumph

It is clear that independence has a bad piece on the loom and it is forced to reflect on what are the reasons that have led the PSC to be the central party in Catalonia right now: not only does it win the general elections by a margin and it is the first force ( with votes) in Parliament, but controls the country’s main town halls and the powerful Barcelona Provincial Council, in addition to having a very significant presence in the Spanish government. It must be admitted that the Sánchez-Illa tandem has created a hole in Catalonia that has not happened for a long time. Now, experience shows that you can’t say anything until it’s in the bag and well tied, and that a lot can happen between now and the next Catalan elections. It remains to be seen what effects the amnesty has, for example, and how this affects party leadership. It will also be necessary to see if ERC and Junts obtain income from their pacts with the PSOE, once it has been shown that only arithmetic moves the socialists towards concessions in areas such as self-government. There is time, but what is clear is that the PSC has already overcome the crisis that made it hit rock bottom during the Process.

2023-11-17 20:39:49
#Editorial #ARA #survey #CEO #PSC #independence

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