I had a solid week, going 6-4 against the spread to move me to three over .500 against the spread for the season. The good: nailing another Upset Special with Arizona upsetting Oregon State. The bad: thinking BYU would keep it kind of close against Texas. The ugly: missing the Ohio State–Wisconsin spread by half a point with the Buckeyes, a 14.5-point favorite, only winning by 14.
Here are this week’s guesses:
Check out Stewart Mandel’s picks.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise listed.)
No. 23 Kansas State at No. 7 Texas (-4), Noon (Fox)
This will be a tough spot for Maalik Murphy, especially with how good the Wildcats have been playing and how good they are at in-game adjustments. I still think UT finds a way with all of its talent at the skill positions to pull out a close one.
Texas 23, Kansas State 21
The pick: Kansas State +4
Texas A&M at No. 10 Ole Miss (-3), Noon (ESPN)
The Lane-Jimbo rivalry is low-key one of the juiciest in college coaching. If this game were in College Station, I’d pick A&M to win, but it’s not, and Max Johnson has really struggled away from home (6-1 TD-INT with 63 percent completion at home compared to 2-3 with 53 percent completion away). Jaxson Dart’s numbers are similar (11-1 TD-INT at home vs 3-3 away).
Ole Miss 28, Texas A&M 20
The pick: Ole Miss -3
No. 12 Missouri at No. 2 Georgia (-15.5), 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Dawgs are home. Mizzou’s ranked in the top 15. This feels like the kind of game Kirby’s guys get up for and flex their muscles.
Georgia 38, Mizzou 20
The pick: Georgia -15.5
No. 9 Oklahoma (-6) at No. 22 Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
The Sooners just had a long, hard trip to KU while Ollie Gordon has been running wild for the Cowboys. This feels like a good spot for the host team to notch an upset.
Oklahoma State 35, Oklahoma 31
The pick: Oklahoma State +6
No. 11 Penn State (-8.5) at Maryland, 3:30 p.m. (Fox)
The Terps have been sputtering the past month. The Nittany Lions might’ve been peaking ahead to next week’s visit from Michigan; they got a cold dose of reality against IU last week and I think they’ll be locked in and primed for this one.
Penn State 30, Maryland 17
The pick: Penn State -8.5
Purdue at No. 1. 3 Michigan (-32.5), 7:30 p.m.
No one has been able to get anywhere close to UM this season, and even though Ryan Walters’ team has played pretty well on the road this season (beating Va. Tech and staying close to Iowa before losing by 17 at Nebraska last week), the Wolverines present all sorts of problems on both sides of the ball.
Michigan 48, Purdue 7
The pick: Michigan -32.5
No. 21 Kansas at Iowa State (-2.5), 7 p.m. (ESPN)
The Cyclones have quietly been playing very well while the Jayhawks are coming off a monumental win over OU. The hunch here is that KU will have a little hangover to get dialed back in for this trip.
Iowa State 24, KU 17
The pick: Iowa State -2.5
No. 5 Washington (-3) at No. 20 USC, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
This feels like a bad match up for the Trojans defense against such an explosive UW passing game, but Washington has been shaky the past few times out and Caleb Williams is more than capable of sparking a home upset for a team trying to salvage its season. Ultimately, the Huskies will pull this one out in the last minute.
Washington 42, USC 40
The pick: USC +3
No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama (-3), 7:45 p.m. (CBS)
Bama’s improved a lot since the Texas game, but I’m not going against Jayden Daniels who has been, by far, the best QB in the SEC and he has wideouts to give the Tide problems.
LSU 34, Alabama 30
The pick: LSU +3
Feldman’s Upset Special
No. 15 Notre Dame (-3) at Clemson, Noon (ABC)
Dabo got really feisty on his radio show and stood up for himself and his program. The hunch here is his players back him up in a big way to pull the upset against the Irish.
Clemson 24, Notre Dame 20
The pick: Clemson +3
(Photo: Matthew Hinton / USA Today)
2023-11-02 23:45:07
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