Victor Wembanyama came to the NBA with endless praise. The Frenchman could soon become one of the best players in the league – but at the moment he’s not even the best rookie. Chet Holmgren holds this status.
von Ole Frerks
The rookie is huge, over 7 feet, the traditional guard measurement for centers. He is faster than any of these centers, can throw, dribble, be a playmaker and even run pick’n’rolls himself. At the back he protects the basket with his long arms and good instincts. With him it seems as if the court is shrinking.
He’s thin and can be pushed around a bit by physical bigs, but he poses insurmountable problems on the opposing side and is a walking matchup nightmare. At the front it makes the court limitless because it can be used to play five-out. He is fast and agile in a way that should be impossible for players of his size. A real unicorn.
Chet Holmgren has a problem: all of these sentences apply to him, yet he will hardly be the first person to think of here. Finally, there is Victor Wembanyama, who is quite a bit taller (officially 2.24 m instead of 2.16 m) and even younger (19 instead of 21).
Who is even better known, even far beyond the NBA. Who is considered the greatest basketball talent since LeBron James, at least.
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There are reasons why Wemby captures viewers’ imaginations *even* more. But Holmgren doesn’t have to hide from the Frenchman, on the contrary.
After 14 career games, it can be said that he is playing better at the moment. As far as the impact on winning basketball is concerned, it is by no means close. Actually, that shouldn’t be a huge surprise.
Holmgren is further than Wembanyama
Holmgren was drafted a year earlier and knew the NBA – he missed his rookie year entirely with a Lisfranc injury, but was already part of a franchise and was able to get to know the new situation and prepare specifically for it. This advantage should not be underestimated; Ben Simmons and Blake Griffin, for example, also benefited from watching for a year in their Rookie of the Year seasons. Griffin even became an All-Star, something no rookie has achieved since him.
Holmgren is further along in his development than Wembanyama and seems a bit more mature as a player. Of course, his team environment also contributes a lot to this, not only because of the quality of his teammates, but not least his position: According to “basketball-reference”, Holmgren spends 100 percent of his playing time at five, almost always as the sole big.
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Even if he is narrow for it, he benefits from a clear role definition in a team that is already pursuing a fully developed game idea. The Thunder played most of last season without a real center because they didn’t have one, and had respectable success with it; Holmgren doesn’t destroy their approach; on the contrary, he adds almost exclusively positive things to it.
Holmgren: Almost absurdly efficient
In a team with still room for improvement in spacing, the rookie is one of the best shooters right from the start.
Holmgren is currently hitting 46 percent of his threes, which is outstanding (only the 3.6 attempts per game can be improved) and it was no coincidence that he was given the responsibility (and delivered) in his last chance against the Warriors at the weekend.
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Holmgren is an excellent pick’n’pop player, which makes him a particularly good fit with OKC superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He feels comfortable out wide, but also from mid-distance. And, like almost every player in OKC, he can also put the ball on the ground – at least six of his drives per game lead to (efficient) completions, which puts him fourth on the team behind Shai, Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey.
Holmgren’s ball handling is incredibly good for his size and he can read the game. Against overly aggressive closeouts, he consistently goes to the basket and is already a fairly efficient finisher with good touch there.
Speaking of efficient: Holmgren’s shot chart is pure comedy. That one missed corner three will surely haunt him for a long time.
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Holmgren: Perfect fit in OKC
The sample is still quite small and it probably won’t stay that efficient (as of now: 56.5 percent from the field, 46 percent three-pointers, 90.7 percent free throws, 69.7 percent true shooting – better than any of Steph’s seasons Curry and almost as good as Nikola Jokic last season). However, Holmgren doesn’t do anything that seems random or lucky, on the contrary.
Rather, he seems like a pretty complete player and a perfect fit alongside Shai in particular, who seems to be finally taking the step towards becoming an MVP candidate this season. This also applies to the defense. Like last year, OKC forces a lot of turnovers and puts a lot of pressure on the wing with its long-armed, athletic wings.
The only difference is that there is now protection behind it – Holmgren is a strong shot blocker whose presence is always felt. He sends 3.3 percent of his opponent’s shots back to sender, which is only bettered by ten NBA players (Wembanyama is one of them).
OKC: Dominance with Shai, Chet and Williams
With his long arms he regularly intercepts passes and also shrinks the court. He contributes to the fourth-best defense in the league, even if – and this is a general Thunder problem – he is not a good rebounder. The Thunder are currently only grabbing two-thirds of the available defensive rebounds, making them the second-worst team in the NBA in this category.
Head coach Mark Daigneault will be happy to make this trade, especially since the problem doesn’t seem unsolvable. More importantly, lineups featuring SGA, Williams and Holmgren dominate on both ends of the court (+12.2 according to Cleaning the Glass). The three most important players for the future are extremely compatible – and OKC can compete for first place in the West this year.
Wemby in the experimental phase
Wembanyama is completely different with Spurs. He has no superstar at his side, no established offense with various playmakers, and, strictly speaking, there is no real game idea either. The Spurs are experimenting with his position and role, but also with everything else. The results are accordingly “a little bit of everything”.
The team’s starting point guard is Jeremy Sochan, a small forward who cannot throw. Wembanyama plays 80 percent of his minutes next to another big man who blocks the path to the basket. The spacing is not ideal at Spurs either, but what is more important is the fact that there is little structure and few players who can put Wembanyam in the spotlight well.
Strictly speaking, Tre Jones, the backup, is the only one, and therefore the “difference player” in San Antonio. Lineups with him and Wemby have a net rating of +13.5. If the Frenchman plays without Jones, the net rating is -27.1 and his efficiency plummets in these minutes. That doesn’t make Jones a superstar, but rather shows that point guards can help… especially with bigs with revolutionary skills.
San Antonio highlights Wemby’s weaknesses
Gregg Popovich knows this, of course. However, the old, wise man never tires of emphasizing that there is no “blueprint” for Wembanyama and that he should find his own way. San Antonio can live with it if results don’t appear immediately; At the moment it’s more about finding out what Wembanyama can do and what types of players help him do it. He can and should therefore try out a lot, create throws, be a ball handler and explore his skillset.
In the long term this makes sense and we’ve already seen in a few games how dominant Wembanyama can be when he puts everything together. Especially against the Suns, for whom he scored 38 points in the second duel, two more than Holmgren in his gala against the Warriors. In the short term, it undoubtedly puts Wemby in a more difficult position.
In the current Spurs ecosystem, Wembanyama’s weaknesses are more apparent. He records significantly more turnovers (3.6) than assists (2.5), unlike Holmgren. He scores much more inefficiently (true shooting currently 50.9 percent) and has not been a consistently positive offensive player so far.
Chet vs. Wemby: The stats are clear
Wembanyama; The No. 1 pick has several advantages on his side in this regard, not least that he is younger and EVEN taller than Holmgren. His context is different than Holmgren’s, now and in the future – he is supposed to be a franchise player, Holmgren supports another franchise player.
At the moment, Wembanyama is only outperforming his fellow rookie in terms of counting stats. The efficiency speaks for itself, as do the impact statistics. Holmgren is an All-Star candidate. Advanced stats such as (for example) Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus or Value Over Replacement Player currently even see him as a top 20 player (Estimated Plus/Minus according to “DunksandThrees”: 8th place!), even if that seems a bit extreme .
Be that as it may: He won’t take away the hype from Wembanyama, in terms of popularity he will probably never be able to compete with the Frenchman. Maybe the Rookie of the Year Award and a deep playoff run would be appropriate consolation prizes. If Holmgren continues like this, the chances of both happening aren’t bad.
2023-11-24 13:58:00
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