Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets for Week 5 of the NFL slate, including the Falcons vs Texans, Rams vs Eagles, and the 49ers vs Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Texans at Falcons (-2): O/U 41.5
After the Texans’ two wins in Jacksonville at the Jaguars and at home versus the Steelers, they are +2 point road underdogs in Atlanta.
I believe that is telling, and two key factors in the public backing the Texans is the misconception that the Falcons aren’t good after losing to the Jaguars in London on national TV, 23-7, then flying back to the ATL.
Atlanta scored 13 total points in its last two games versus Detroit and Jacksonville, two better defenses in the NFL. Unlike those two defenses, Houston’s is not in that conversation. The Texans’ defense allows the third-highest completion percentage to opposing QBs at 71.2%.
The key to this game is getting pressure on CJ Stroud, who had four backup offensive linemen last week and has yet to throw an interception. When Stroud is pressured, the rookie QB averages 4.7 yards per pass attempt with a 36.3 PFF grade along with four turnover-worthy plays.
The Texans are 4-7 on the road dating back to last season, while the Falcons are 2-0 at home this year and 8-3 since the start of 2022.
I was hoping for the Texans to win last week to set us up for a best bet on the Falcons to win outright at home. I played Atlanta on the ML at -130 odds. I would go out to -150 before opting for the -3.
Pick: Falcons ML (Risk 1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Eagles (-4.5) at Rams: O/U 50.5
This is an intriguing game and line as the Rams are +4 to +4.5 point underdogs at home versus the 4-0 Eagles.
Cooper Kupp returns for the Rams and that’s impactful versus an Eagles secondary that’s banged up under a new defensive coordinator and making the cross-country trip from East to West time zone.
Philadelphia won three of its four games by six or fewer points and escaped at home versus Washington last week with a 34-31 OT win. The Eagles have played on the road in Week 1 and should have lost to the Patriots (25-20 Philly win) and in Week 3 on Primetime against the Bucs, who played its worst game of the season (25-11 Philly win).
Philadelphia allows a 67% completion percentage to opposing QBs (14th), plus the seventh-most yards through the air (1,043) and nine touchdown passes (4th-most allowed).
The Los Angeles defense has allowed the second-lowest completion percentage on the season (56%) and played much better than expected. I think the Rams can win this game, but at least keep it close in Kupp’s return.
I played Los Angeles as the home underdog at +4.5 for -115 odds. I lean Stafford Over 37.5 completions as the Eagles have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards (252) and fifth-fewest yards per carry (3.3).
Pick: Rams +4.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Cowboys at 49ers (-3.5): O/U 45.0
The Sunday Night Football matchup should live up to the hype as two playmaking defenses meet up with offenses just as dynamic as the other sideline.
I will continue to beat the drum on the 49ers being the best team in the NFL and Dallas will be playing up in competition. The Cowboys have played the Giants, Cardinals, Jets, and Patriots thus far, meaning Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, Josh Dobbs, and Zach Wilson are the quarterbacks they faced.
San Francisco at least played Matthew Stafford facing a legit passing attack, plus made a cross-country road trip in a dominant win over a good defense in Pittsburgh.
The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in Primetime games since the start of 2021, while the 49ers are 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games, plus 7-1-1 ATS with Brock Purdy in the regular season.
Something has got to give, and I will say it’s the Cowboys failing to cover as the road team. Give me the 49ers -3.5 at -105 odds, playable out to -4. If you can get -3 for -120 odds or better, I would take that.
Pick: 49ers -3.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 21-12-1 (63.6%) +7.66u
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2023-10-08 13:52:19
#NFL #Week #Bets #Falcons #Texans #Rams #Eagles #49ers #Cowboys #SNF
