The 2023 season is 28 percent complete (77 games played out of 272), and the oddity, to me, is that the NFL has only three teams at the extremes. Niners and Eagles, unbeaten. Panthers, winless. The 29 other teams have zero zeroes next to their names.
Ranking teams always has a bit of silliness attached. This week, for instance, you might ask: The Bills just beat Miami by 28 eight days ago, so how can you have the Bills behind the Dolphins? I would answer this way: Eight days ago, at the start of Miami-Buffalo, the two most important players on their defense were healthy—Tre’Davious White for three quarters, Matt Milano for the entire game. Now they’re both gone, likely for the season. So the Bills are a different team this morning, and not in a good way.
(And some people want an 18-game regular season.)
As we’ve finished the first quartile of the season, here’s my ranking of the teams:
1 San Francisco (5-0). Not much doubt they deserve this spot after Sunday night. We knew the defense would be premier, to be sure. But who knew Brock Purdy would be this good?
2 Philadelphia (5-0). We should start appreciating this team—19-3 in the regular season since the start of last year—instead of saying, “Imagine what happens when they really start clicking on all cylinders.” Um, averaging 28.2 points, rushing for 4.6 a pop and holding foes to 309 yards a game is sort of okay.
3 Miami (4-1). Allow this to sink in: The Dolphins are averaging 111 yards per game more than any team in the league.
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4 Kansas City (4-1). See team 2, Philadelphia. We got spoiled by the Kansas City steamroller, and assumed that even by losing Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman over two off-seasons that Patrick Mahomes would just get the Valdez-Scantlings and Toneys up and running at classic levels in no time. Trust the process. In the last 13 months, including playoffs, KC’s 21-4.
5 Detroit (4-1). Nothing fluky about the Lions, who’ve won by 14, 14 and 18 the last three weeks. What I like a lot about Detroit is the defense (293 yards allowed, 3.3 yards per rush allowed), which will keep the Lions in every game.
6 Dallas (3-2). Jekyll and Hyde.
7 Buffalo (3-2). Losing to the Jags was bad enough. Losing nerve-center-of-the-defense Milano—likely for the year—with a fractured leg was worse. Five games into the season, the Bills’ best cover guy, White, and best defensive player, Milano, are lost for the year. That goes into my decision to drop the Bills lower than I’d like to.
8 Baltimore (3-2). Blew a chance to complete a huge trifecta—beating all three division foes on the road in the first five weeks—with a big egg-laying in Pittsburgh. Maybe I’m giving the Ravens too much of the benefit of the doubt, but I doubt their receivers will drop 37 passes in a game again this year.
9 Seattle (3-1, on the bye). Two important points: Geno Smith has proven the efficient 2022 season wasn’t an outlier; Seattle’s averaging 28 points per game. And the run defense, abominable last year at 4.9 yards per carry allowed, has been shaved to 3.2.
10 Tampa Bay (3-1, on the bye). Really got the Bucs wrong before the season. Big bad by me. They’ve built an outstanding offensive line—Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke have played superbly as the bookend tackles—and Baker Mayfield has been strikingly efficient. The Bucs are clearly in the driver’s seat for the NFC’s fourth seed.
11 Jacksonville (3-2). Not as impressive as I thought the Jags would be. Their offensive output in the last four games: 9, 17, 23 and 25 points. But maybe there was a big over-reliance on Trevor Lawrence entering the season, and the explosion of Travis Etienne in London Sunday (30 touches, 184 yards, two TDs) should tell Doug Pederson something.
12 New Orleans (3-2). No idea what obliterating the Patriots means, because this looks like the worst New England team since the 5-11 edition of 2000. Pre-Pats, this team was scoring 15 points a game, and that’s not a playoff offense.
13 L.A. Rams (2-3). Sometimes you watch a team and just think it’s better than the record. That’s what I think about the Rams. Feisty and physical, reinvented on the fly.
14 Indianapolis (3-2). Such a strange first quarter of the season. Road wins against Houston and Baltimore in the middle of a QB job-share, while managing a beat-up savior quarterback. With Jonathan Taylor in-house and signed (such a surprise), the Colts should be in play for the AFC South. Don’t we say that every year, though?
15 Houston (2-3). DeMeco Ryans turned a bad team into an immediately competitive one. What I love is the fight in his team. As C.J. Stroud told me after the Texans routed Jacksonville: “We’re grown men. We’re NFL players. Why can’t we win any game we show up to play? That Jacksonville team’s a top 10 team in the NFL, but we knew we could play with them. I’m nobody’s fish.” Wish I knew what that meant, but it sure sounds good.
16 Pittsburgh (3-2). Big mystery team. Rose up to survive the Ravens after losing to the Texans by 24. Need to run it better. Need Kenny Pickett to be more efficient. Need to not rely on the defense to play perfect games. But it’s all about the wins, and you know what they say about Mike Tomlin and losing seasons: oxymoron.
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17 Tennessee (2-3). As I’m writing this, I think, Too high. Not enough to like about the Titans. Well, there’s the 24-point rout of the Bengals, and there’s Mike Vrabel, and there’s Derrick Henry, and, well, I’m still dubious about their playoff chances because I don’t trust the passing game.
18 Cincinnati (2-3.) Breath of life in Arizona Sunday, with Burrow looking like Burrow for the first time in 10 months. Next five: Seahawks, Niners, Bills, Texans and Ravens.
19 Atlanta (3-2). I’d feel a lot better about the Falcons if I felt even a smidge of confidence in Desmond Ridder.
20 Los Angeles Chargers (2-2, on the bye). I have no idea about the fate of this team as the Chargers took the early bye. Every game’s been a one-score outcome, and Dallas, KC, Detroit and Baltimore are on the slate between now and Thanksgiving weekend. All is possible, as long as Justin Herbert can keep winning scoring contests.
21 Cleveland (2-2, on the bye). The defense was premier till being strafed by Lamar Jackson last week. Now a bum shoulder adds to the uncertainty of Deshaun Watson, and no Nick Chubb is a major downer. Most right-on stat for the Browns might be their average points per game: 19.0.
22 Minnesota (1-4). Three of their next four are on the road, and the only home game is with the Niners. Yikes. Why are the Vikings here, in the equatorial zone of quarter-pole rankings? Mainly because I don’t love the teams below them.
23 Green Bay (2-2). As Jordan Love goes, so go the Packers. He needs to be more efficient, with better accuracy, starting tonight in Vegas. The run game’s not doing him any favors.
24 Washington (2-3). All the feels from the great day in Philadelphia last week got wiped out by getting dominated by the Bears. I like Sam Howell. I just hope he’s in one piece by January.
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25 Arizona (1-4). Feel-good story. More competitive than we thought. But this league is about winning, and I don’t see the Cards doing much of it. Next three: Rams, Seahawks, Ravens. Three of last four: Niners, Eagles, Seahawks.
26 New York Jets (2-3). The Jets will stay in it if they can consistently hold teams under 20. Problem is, they’ve done it in two of five games. The margin for error just seems too tiny for this team.
27 New England (1-4). Belichick weeps. Kraft gnashes teeth. Mac forces throws. Season in the toilet.
28 Las Vegas (1-3). Drive-thru guy at In-N-Out Burger on Willie Stargell Avenue in Oakland recognized me Friday: “Mr. King, can I ask you a question? Why won’t Mark Davis fire McDaniels?” I said, “You want Josh McDaniels fired four games into year two? You guys get in trouble all the time because you fire coaches all the time.” Guy still said yes. Tonight’s a big game for the team—and particularly for the coach.
29 Denver (1-4). Pretty big rebuild here, particularly on defense. Broncos have no one on the front seven who’s a consistent playmaker. And Sean Payton sure seemed unhappy with Russell Wilson Sunday in that dispiriting loss to the Jets.
30 Chicago (1-4). Weeks 4 and 5 showed the Bears are not hapless—granted, they played the two worst scoring defenses in football—but there are signs of life when we were sure there’d be none. Coincidence that Justin Fields has led the Bears to 12 scoring drives (including eight TD throws) since Chase Claypool was banished? I think not.
31 New York Giants (1-4). Making the playoffs wasn’t a fluke last year, but they still had huge holes entering this season—the biggest being on the offensive line, which is a sieve. Evan Neal, the seventh overall pick in ’22, has been a disaster at right tackle. A team in the playoffs one year. The same team has trailed by 40, 20, 18, 21 and 18 in their first five games the next year. Now that’s hard to do.
32 Carolina (0-5). Way, way too early to say they made the wrong call at quarterback. Forgot how well C.J. Stroud has played in Houston through five weeks—I can’t shake the feeling of how small Bryce Young looks. He can make that go away with a couple of big games, but he hasn’t had one yet.
Read more in Peter King’s full Football Morning in America column.
2023-10-09 17:18:46
#Ranking #NFL #team #quarter #season
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