Predicting Victor Wembanyama’s Rookie Performance and Statistics with the San Antonio Spurs

It’s never an easy exercise, especially when we’re talking about a rookie. But inevitably, there are so many intriguing questions as the season quickly approaches: how will Victor Wembanyama fare in his first exercise in the big world of the NBA? And above all, what averages will he be able to achieve in the San Antonio Spurs jersey in 2023-24?

Without wanting to play Nostradamus, it is tempting to get ahead of Wemby’s statistics. Because being number 1 in the draft necessarily gives you status. Substantial playing time. And above all a place of choice in the systems put in place by your franchise. “He will have the ball in his hands, like a ‘go to guy’. He may even be able to bring the ball up from time to time after a rebound,” Frédéric Weis, BeIn Sport consultant, told us. This is also the privilege of being the king of the rookies.

Victor Wembanyama with Spurs champion banners

Credit: Getty Images

ESPN and NBC bet on the same stats

So what will it be for Victor Wembanyama version 2023-24? The tricolor nugget has all the weapons to darken its statistics sheet, both in attack and in defense. He already showed it last season with Boulogne-Levallois, where he averaged 21.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 3 blocks in BetClic Elite. And even in the Summer League with the Spurs, he was able to respond. After a timid first match against Charlotte (9 pts, 8 rebounds, 5 blocks), Wemby put everyone in agreement with 27 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocks in 27 minutes against Portland.

Summer League and Pro A are obviously not the NBA. But, seduced by his ability to strike in multiple ways with his atypical physical profile and also aware that he has landed in a franchise in full reconstruction where he will be the cornerstone of the project, the NBA “experts” see him as such. even posting nice statistics for his first season. In the various projections made by reference sites in the field for NBA Fantasy games, some of which rely on mathematical models to make their estimates, Wemby presents a nice production each time.

Victor Wembanyama, the new star of the San Antonio Spurs.

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The Popovich factor, a hindrance?

If Stan Son of The Athletic sees him at 20.2 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocks on average, ESPN announces him at 19.9 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks on average (32 minutes) while NBC Sports and Rotoworld – the bible for US Fantasy sports lovers – follow the same path: 19.7 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.5 blocks (30 minutes). Figures which do not necessarily seem crazy when we know the ability of the French giant to inflate his statistics in a few minutes on the floor, thanks to his multiple talents and his sprawling arms. “Wembanyama will need time to get used to the NBA game. But his skills are tempting,” summarizes NBC.

ESPN is also optimistic, while recalling that it may be necessary to take into account the fact that the former protégé of Vincent Collet at the Mets 92 will evolve under the orders of the legendary Gregg Popovich. “Wembanyama will likely have difficulty adjusting to his new life and playing in the most physical and talented league in the world. We also shouldn’t forget that he plays for Gregg Popovich, the coach who invented the ‘load management’ with Tim Duncan. So, he might not play every night. But Popovich also used to give Duncan a lot of minutes when he was a rookie. So, we should expect some Wemby-mania.”

The averages announced on the other side of the Atlantic are high. But it wouldn’t be that surprising for a player of this status. You just have to look at the last number 1s in the draft to see this trend. In Orlando, during the last financial year, Paolo Banchero immediately had a major role. And he was able to exploit his 34 minutes on average to achieve 20 points and 6.9 rebounds on the floor. The previous year, Cade Cunningham was entitled to the same treatment in Detroit: 33 minutes on average for a good performance (17.4 pts, 5.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists). And if we have fun going back to two phenomena which excited the crowds like Wembanyama, there is something to salivate about.

Victor Wembanyama with Spurs

Credit: Getty Images

The latest examples of number 1 encourage us to see it high

Highly anticipated for his spectacular side and despite an injury before the start of the season which deprived him of the first three months, Zion Williamson also immediately took the measure of the NBA by posting 22.5 points and 6.3 rebounds on average with however limited playing time (27 minutes) in the New Orleans jersey. And what about LeBron James, who aroused the same expectations as Wemby when he arrived in the League? “The Chosen One” never stayed on the bench for very long with Cleveland in 2003-2004. More than 39 minutes on average and an already impressive first season (20.9 pts, 4.2 rebounds, 5.9 pds).

Be careful though, being number 1 in the draft is not synonymous with cards. Some were more discreet, despite their status. Recently, we can cite Andrea Bargnani (11.6 pts, 3.9 rebounds in 25 minutes with Toronto in 2006-2007) or Andrew Bogut (9.4 rebounds, 6.9 rebounds in 29 minutes with Milwaukee in 2005-2006). So a Wemby version of LeBron or Bargnani version for his rookie year? Projection experts opt more for the first option. But the bets are on.

2023-10-06 00:00:25
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