The first College Football Playoff rankings are right around the corner. Before the rankings are unveiled by the CFP committee, I predict where each potential top 25 team could land.
The first of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Tuesday, Oct. 31. Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.
MORE: See the final AP Top 25 ahead of the CFP rankings
College Football Playoff rankings predictions: The first top 25 projections | Week 10
These predictions are as of Sunday, October 29.
Ohio State (8-0) — Eight FBS teams are undefeated, but Ohio State reigns supreme among the group with its wins over Penn State and Notre Dame, the latter win coming on the road. Those ranked wins will impress the CFP committee enough to give the Buckeyes the top spot.
Florida State (8-0) — Florida State’s 21-point win over LSU is the second-best win of any undefeated team this year. That’ll earn the Seminoles the second spot.
Washington (8-0) — Washington has a win over an Oregon team that will surely be in the CFP committee’s top 10. That plus the nation’s leading passer Michael Penix gets the Huskies the third spot.
Georgia (8-0) — The undefeated defending national champions come in fourth in the initial CFP rankings. Before you get up in arms over this ranking, remember that Georgia opened 2022’s CFP rankings ranked third — and that was with a nonconference win over Oregon. In 2023, the Bulldogs have only beaten three teams with winning records, none of which will be ranked in the CFP rankings.
Michigan (8-0) — Michigan’s strength of schedule has been a topic of debate since the preseason, but Michigan has been dominant against every team that lines up in front of it. Nonetheless, the Committee will put the Wolverines at the bottom of the top-five undefeated teams because of its strength of schedule.
Oregon (7-1) — Oregon’s big-time win over Utah will make the Ducks the committee’s leader among one-loss teams.
Oklahoma (7-1) — The CFP committee values head-to-head wins. The Sooners beat Texas head-to-head so they’ll rank above the Longhorns.
Texas (7-1) — Keeping with the theme of head-to-head, Texas ranks above Alabama.
Alabama (7-1) — Alabama slots in ninth as ranked wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee will stand out to the committee.
Ole Miss (7-1) — Ole Miss continues the head-to-head trend after the Rebels lost to Alabama earlier this year. However, Ole Miss ranks above a one-loss Penn State thanks to wins over LSU and Tulane.
Penn State (7-1) — Penn State’s best win this year came against an Iowa team that will probably be unranked in the committee’s initial top 25. That’ll keep the Nittany Lions out of the top 10.
LSU (6-2) — LSU looks like the best two-loss team in the country behind quarterback Jayden Daniels’ electrifying play. The Tigers have the best path to becoming the first two-loss college football playoff participant, starting with a game against Alabama this week.
Louisville (7-1) — Louisville has a win over Notre Dame and it just shut out a good Duke team. The Cardinals have a solid resume that the committee will reward.
Oregon State (6-2) — Wins over Utah and UCLA will see the Beavers open the CFP rankings 14th.
Missouri (7-1) — Missouri comes in at No. 15 with just one loss to LSU, but a lack of a ranked win keeps the Tigers from being ranked higher.
Kansas (6-2) — Kansas’ top-10 win over Oklahoma offsets its loss to Oklahoma State earlier this year. The Jayhawks will be trending upward after its latest win.
Notre Dame (7-2) — Notre Dame is 3-2 over its last five games, with only one win over an opponent that will be ranked in the CFP rankings.
Utah (6-2) — Utah has wins over UCLA and Southern California while only losing to top-15 teams.
Southern California (7-2) — The Trojans lost its only two games to ranked opponents, but they still have the reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams and the nation’s second-leading scoring offense.
UCLA (6-2) — UCLA’s win over Washington State has lost its luster, but the Bruins still look like a top-20 team.
Air Force (8-0) — A look at past initial rankings shows that it’ll be hard for a school like Air Force, even if undefeated, to move out of the range of the 20th spot. For example, in 2022 an undefeated Tulane opened 19th. That Green Wave team had a win over a Big 12 opponent. Air Force has nothing of the sort.
Oklahoma State (6-2) — The Cowboys have a win over Kansas that looks better than ever after last week.
Tennessee (6-2) — Tennessee hasn’t beaten any ranked teams, and a loss to Florida hasn’t aged well.
Tulane (7-1) — Tulane’s only loss on the year is to an Ole Miss team that’ll be a top-10 team in the committee’s eyes. That’s enough to guarantee the Green Wave a spot in the rankings.
Miami (FL) (6-2) — The CFP committee watches the games, and while a loss to Georgia Tech reflects poorly on the Hurricanes, this Miami team is better than its record on paper.
CFP????: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule
Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions
How much weight will back-to-back championships hold?
Georgia is the two-time defending College Football Playoff champions. No one would have any qualms with the Bulldogs opening the CFP rankings at the top. However, past rankings have valued what has happened on the field over reputation. Which path will the committee take on Halloween?
UNDEFEATED TRACKER: Here’s a look at all of the undefeated FBS teams
Where will Oklahoma rank after its first loss?
Oklahoma could rank anywhere from sixth to 11th in the opening CFP rankings after its first loss. Oklahoma’s head-to-head win over Texas still holds value, but how much the committee factors in the head-to-head wins inside of the top 10 remains to be seen.
ROCK CHALK: Kansas shakes up Big 12 standings, beats No. 6 Oklahoma for first time since 1997
How highly does the CFP committee think of undefeated teams like Air Force and Liberty?
Air Force and Liberty are undefeated teams that could rank outside of the top 20 or not be ranked at all come Halloween. The CFP committee has already said it won’t rank an undefeated James Madison since it is ineligible. What will be the fates of the teams that theoretically could make the College Football Playoff?
Stan Becton joined NCAA.com in 2021 and has since served as an FCS, track and field, cross country and HBCU beat reporter. He has covered numerous NCAA championship events, including the FCS Championship, DI Track & Field Championships and Men’s Frozen Four. Additionally, he has covered the 2022 College Football Playoff’s Peach Bowl and HBCU sporting events like the Celebration Bowl and Legacy Classic. Stan graduated from Carnegie Mellon University, earning a degree in Professional Writing and playing football as a five-year letterman. You can follow him on Twitter @stan_becton.
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2023-10-29 21:49:06
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