Multiple ContributorsOct 28, 2023, 06:55 PM10 Minute Read
We’re on to the eighth weekend of the 2023 NFL season and we’re sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 8 slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out on Sunday, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine the winners
Should the Texans lean more on quarterback C.J. Stroud against the Panthers?
I say yes. I like to look at the difference in a team’s expected points added per play between run and pass plays, and then compare that to how often that team chooses to run or pass. And the Texans stand out there. They are dramatically more efficient on passing plays (0.14 EPA per play on designed pass plays vs. minus-0.12 on designed runs) and yet rank 28th in designed pass rate when win probability is 15-85%.
While this is not ideal looking backward at the first six games, the good news is 3-3 Houston has unrealized upside if it just passes the ball more. And that could — and should — start Sunday in Carolina.
Good matchup on deck for Jets quarterback Zach Wilson?
Wilson’s splits against man and zone coverage are pretty stark. He has a 59 QBR vs. man… and an 18 QBR vs. zone. These splits are often noise, but in this case the trend continues back to last season: Expanding the sample to 2022, the numbers are 55 and 24, respectively.
Now let’s spin this forward to Sunday’s matchup. The Giants run man coverage 53% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the league. They also blitz a ton (41% of the time, second most), and Wilson’s QBR is 60 against the blitz this season, which ranks 20th. That’s much better than his 38 QBR overall (29th).
But could a young Giants cornerback make life difficult for Wilson?
Deonte Banksthe No. 24 overall pick in this year’s draft, is off to a nice start to his career, according to nearest defender numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats. Banks has allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap — much better than the average for outside corners this season of 1.4. He also has minus-11 expected points added allowed when targeted.
His first pick came last week against the Commandersand he has certainly been part of the Giants’ defensive improvement over the past few weeks after a very rocky start.
Could the Dolphins’ screen game sink the Patriots?
Let’s be honest, there are many offensive levers, plays and players that might sink the Patriots in this game against the Dolphins. But here’s one particularly alarming stat for New England: The Patriots rank last in EPA allowed per screen (0.45).
And guess who runs more screens than anyone else? Yup, the Dolphins. Miami runs screens on 7% of its offensive snaps and has recorded 0.25 EPA per screen, fourth best, this season.
Can Penei Sewell protect Jared Goff from Maxx Crosby?
Sewell has been well-regarded as an NFL offensive tackle for some time, but pass block win rate indicates he has stepped up in 2023. The Lions’ 2021 first-round pick ranks second among tackles in pass block win rate (95%) — behind only Minnesota’s Brian O’Neillwho held off San Francisco’s Nick Bosa on Monday night.
That should be helpful for Detroit against Las Vegas on Monday because Maxx Crosby — one of the only parts of the Raiders’ defense that worries offenses — typically lines up opposite the right tackle.
Why Jared Goff is worth starting in fantasy in Week 8
Matt Bowen explains that Jared Goff is still worth starting in fantasy despite his poor performance vs. the Ravens.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up — and can start this week
Chuba HubbardRB, Carolina Panthers (43.8% rostered)
When Miles Sanders missed Week 6 against Miami with a shoulder injuryHubbard took over as the starter and scored 16 fantasy points on 20 touches. But you should still start him against the Texans despite Sanders’ return to practice Wednesday coming out of last week’s bye. Hubbard leads the Panthers in rushing (242 yards), and the backfield should be a committee at this point. Plus, the Texans’ defense has given up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Kendrick BourneWR, New England Patriots (32.9% rostered)
This Patriots’ offense has been terrible this season, ranking 25th in total yards and 31st in points scored per game. But Bourne has a rapport with quarterback Mac Jonesand he’s becoming a reliable option in New England’s passing game. He has had seven or more targets and scored 16 or more fantasy points in two consecutive games. Against a Dolphins offense that leads the league in scoring, the Patriots might need to rely heavily on the passing game to keep up. Wide receivers have scored the ninth-most fantasy points per game against Miami’s defense.
Devin SingletaryRB, Houston Texans (30.7% rostered)
Dameon Pierce has struggled behind a Texans offensive line that ranks 26th in run block win rate, averaging a dismal 2.9 yards per carry. But in Week 6 against New Orleansbefore the bye, Singletary led the Texans’ backfield in rushing yards (58) and offensive snaps (34). It is unknown how the touches will be distributed in Houston against the Panthers, but it is a very favorable matchup because Carolina’s defense has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Derek CarrQB, New Orleans Saints (18.7% rostered)
Carr is a sleeper for fantasy managers seeking a reliable quarterback option in Week 8. The Saints rank third in pass attempts per game (39.3), and Carr has scored 15 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. Yes, the New Orleans offense has struggled, especially on third down and in the red zone, but the unit has been trying to get on the same page to fix the problem. With Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and others supporting him in the passing game, Carr should be able to find success against a middle-of-road Colts defense.
Michael MayerTHE Las Vegas Raiders (7.0% rostered)
The Raiders traded up to land Mayer in the second round in April, and we’ve seen his potential over the past three games. In that timeframe, Mayer has accumulated 127 receiving yards while playing a significant number of snaps and running a high number of routes. He’s an excellent sleeper this week, regardless of who is under center Monday night against the Lions. Detroit’s defense allows the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Plus, Mayer has averaged 13.0 yards per reception this season.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday’s action
Falcons safety Jessie Bates III will have an interception
With Titans quarterback Will Levis potentially making his first pro startI would anticipate a Falcons game plan that consistently changes the picture post-snap for the rookie quarterback (or Malik Williswho has just three career starts himself). Bates has the ball skills and range to lie in the weeds against the Titans and create turnovers. This season, Bates has three interceptions and four pass breakups, and he’s always around the ball.
Chicago quarterback Tyson Bagent will throw for over 225 yards
Bagent completed 21 of 29 passes for 162 yards last weekend in a win over the Raiders. He was very efficient, taking the throws that were available. And it worked on a day when the Bears were able to control the offensive tempo. But on Sunday night against the ChargersI see a different script. Bagent will have to be more aggressive at the second and third levels of the field against a Los Angeles defense that is allowing an average of 310 yards passing per game, the highest total in the league.
Texans tight end Dalton Schultz will catch a touchdown
Schultz is seeing the ball in scoring position and has a red zone touchdown reception in each of his past three games. I think he keeps that streak rolling Sunday against the Panthers’ defense, with C.J. Stroud targeting the tight end multiple times inside the 20-yard line. I’m watching for seam ball throws from the high red zone, and maybe a potential boot scheme on the goal line with Schultz running the shallow crosser.
Why Dalton Schultz is worth a start in Week 8
Daniel Dopp says Dalton Schultz’s success before the Texans’ bye week is a reason he can be trusted against the Panthers.
Ravens receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will have more than 50 yards
Beckham posted his best numbers of the season in the Week 7 win over the Lionscatching five of seven targets for 49 yards. Look for him to win perimeter matchups against the Cards on intermediate throws from quarterback Lamar Jacksonrunning the curls, comebacks and outs. Plus, the Ravens can scheme up Arizona’s split-safety coverages to create middle-of-the-field voids for Beckham to attack on deeper in-cuts.
Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice will catch a touchdown
The rookie is emerging as a viable target for quarterback Patrick Mahomesas Rice has caught 13 of 15 targets over his past three games — including a touchdown grab in two of them. He has the catch-and-run traits to produce in open grass, and coach Andy Reid can scheme for Rice inside the red zone. I’m thinking of a Hi-Lo concept that creates a void for Rice to get the ball in the end zone Sunday against the Broncos.
Fowler: What I’m hearing as we near kickoff
The Titans plan to start quarterback Will Levis on Sunday against the Falcons, and he’s expected to get more reps than Malik Willis. But Willis will have packages and heavy involvement in the game plan. The Titans are stressing with both quarterbacks to execute a clean operation. Tennessee doesn’t need home runs but rather steady play in what probably won’t be a shootout. The Titans and Falcons rank 25th and 29th in points per game, respectively. Tennessee welcomes Levis using his legs but wants him to protect himself. (He had a penchant for trying to run over defenders at Kentucky.)
The sense out of Cleveland is that Deshaun Watson didn’t reaggravate his shoulder injury in a significant way last week against Indianapolisbut since it hasn’t fully healed, he remains week-to-week. The Browns are hopeful he can return as soon as next week, but that’s not a slam dunk.
Also in Cleveland, running back Jerome Ford (ankle) has progressed faster than anticipated. He has a chance to play this week and is listed as questionable.
OK, here’s some trade deadline buzz:
Washington is listening to calls on both Chase Young and Montez Sweatand there’s interest in both. The Commanders have also received inquiries on quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Sitting at 3-4 with Philly on deck, this week could be big for them in regards to trade plans.
The Bills have received trade interest in 2022 first-round cornerback Kaiir Elamper sources. Elam, who was inactive Thursday night and is not in the Bills’ rotation this season, is a talented corner but is not considered a schematic fit for Buffalo right now.
Teams I’ve talked to would be at least mildly surprised if Tennessee moves running back Derrick Henrydue to a weak AFC South and the Titans’ young quarterbacks needing support. While recently traded Kevin Byard took a pay cut in the offseason, Henry did not. He’s still a name on the radar of many teams, either way.
2023-10-28 11:01:43
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