Brady Cook, QB, Mizzou – Alt Line 325+ Pass Yards (+380)
After my beloved NBC co-worker, Denny Carter, and I slayed the Fantasy Football Expo karaoke ???? event last year with a scintillating rendition of my favorite song of all-time “Under Pressure” by David Bowie (played by Denny) and Freddie Mercury (played by me, and I hit the high note FWIW), I knew that expectations would be high for our/my encore performance this year.
With FF Expo CEO/Hero Bob Lung smartly following my suggestion to bring the karaoke festivities to the Doubletree hotel everyone is staying at, the stakes were raised and I knew a “traditional” approach wouldn’t work if I wanted to differentiate my performance from the dozens of others who went before me.
So in an homage to the unassailable Weird Al Yankovic, I repurposed all of the lyrics to the iconic Living Colour song “Cult of Personality” to fit the moment, lamenting the egos of the fantasy influencer community with “Cult of NFL Fantasy”.
Unfortunately, I cannot jump onto the dinner tables setup at the Doubletree and belt out my ode to DK’s asinine 325+ Passing Yards Alt Line, but I can certainly provide the lyrics:
“Oh What A Niiiight
Early October 2023
Draft Kings handing money out for free
What a Brady (Cook$) What a night!”
When IIIIII, walked into the Draft Kings kiosk rooooom
Then IIIIII, saw that Alt Line and knew just what to doooooo
Oh What a Niiiiight
LSU’s D is a travesty
Cook has cleared that line in his last 3
+380, What a Night!”
Anthony Grant, RB, Nebraska – Alt Lines: 100 Rushing Yards = +600 | 110+ Rushing Yards = +900(!)
Long forgotten is the Illini 2022 defense that held opponents to 12.8 points and 100 rushing yards per game with a sparkling 3.3 YPC average. Former DC Ryan Walters is now the HC at Purdue, who Illinois happened to get flattened by last week to the tune of 44-19. UI was even kind enough to allow converted wide receiver Tyrone Tracy Jr. to post 112 rushing yards on 21 carries, eclipsing the 100-yard barrier for the first time in his collegiate career. The blueprint was clear for the Boilermakers – they ran the ball 45 times in 71 plays for 189 yards and three touchdowns, leaning on Illinois’ embattled front-seven. They rank an unsightly 91st in defensive EPA/Play, 115th with a 46.2% success rate allowed and 93rd in overall run defense as they enter a rebuilding mode.
It’s not hard to figure out Nebraska’s modus operandi either, as the Cornhuskers’ helpless passing offense ranks 94th in yards per pass attempt (6.4) and 112th in points per drive. However they’re actually a pretty effective rushing team, ranking 14th nationally with an average of 209 rush yards per game at a stellar 5.47 YPC clip (17th). For his part, Grant started the year as RB2 behind Gabe Ervin, with Rahmir Johnson filling in on passing downs. Fate intervened though, with both Ervin and Johnson out for the foreseeable future, leaving Grant as the lone dependable running back on the roster. In his first start of the season on Week3, Grant rushed 22 times for 135 yards and 6.1 YPC against Louisiana, the sixth 100-yard game dating back to last season. He followed that breakout performance with six carries for 16 yards against the unassailable Michigan run defense in a 45-7 blowout.
That stinker against UM works in our favor here, as the dimwitted books fail to see the big picture here. If they’re going to taunt us with +600 money for 100+ and +900 for 110+(!) against Illinois’ lapdog run defense, then take those charlatans at DK to the Pay Window and shove those wadded up winning tickets in their mouth like a ball-gag.
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Jason Bean, QB, Kansas vs. UCF – Alt Lines: 275+ Passing Yards = +310 | 300+ Passing Yards = +650
For the first four games of this season, HC Dave Aranda’s’ Baylor was both a comedy and a tragedy, getting throttled by Texas State 42-21 (5% win expectancy) in Week 1, coughing up a potential win against an imminently flawed Utah offense sans Cam Rising (who bears a striking resemblance to a young Dave Groehl, FWIW) and getting ritualistically slaughtered by Texas. Talk to any Baylor fan and ask how they feel about the program so far this year, and prepare to block off your calendar for the remainder of the day.
However last week the Waco Bears got back their injured starting QB Blake “The Colour and the” Shapen and received their big Christmas present early, clawing back from a seemingly insurmountable 35-7 Q3 deficit to UCF by going FG-TD-TD-Fumble Return TD-FG to beat UCF 36-35 in one of the most wild second-half turnarounds you’ll ever lay eyes on. For perspective, UCF had a 4% chance of losing that game, but did so with aplomb. The week prior, UCF was hanging with Kansas State 24-24 in Q3, but a fumble, interception and missed FG caused the Golden Knights to lose 44-31 despite a post-game 57% win expectancy.
This week, UCF travels to play a Kansas team who was ranked 24th nationally before running into the Texas juggernaut and getting run over. That’s a good thing however as Rowan Atkinson’s alter-ego, Mr. Bean, is now an Alt Line buy due to an overcorrection based upon their lackluster performance against UT last week. The Jayhawks average 8.8 yards per pass attempt (26th) with a 52% success rate (11th) while ranking 14th in offensive EPA/Play. For their part, UCF plays at the 27th quickest pace in the country and average 8.0 yards per play (4th).
Last year veteran signal caller Jason Bean cleared 260 passing yards three times, and broke 270 earlier this season against an FCS team. Ideally we get another quick start for the Golden Knights, dictating the same pass-heavy script we’ve seen teams employ all year long in order to keep pace with HC Gus Malzahn’s potent offense. Blake Shapen threw for 293 passing yards vs. UCF last week, while Kansas State rolled up 536 total yards against them the week prior as both games went over 70 total points.
Because my creative juices are flowing today, here is a song parody from the seminal aforementioned Foo Fighters second studio album “The Colour and the Shape(n)”. Here is a quick snippet of their magnum opus – “Best of You” to illustrate how I feel about this play:
“I’ve got another confession to make, I hate Fan-Duel
I live to make Draft Kings break, their kiosk rules
UCF can barely resissssst, they get abused
Kansas is cashing this bet, this bet, this bet, this bet for You
Jason Bean is cashing this bet, this bet, this bet, this bet for YOOUUUUU
Now we’re flush and on to cash anew…”
Jason Bean’s 275+ pass yards Alt Line at a brisk +310 is a helluva ROI considering the way these two teams have been scoring, and allowing, points. I think this game could go nuclear, so 300+ yards at (+650) is not out of the equation.
Richard Reese, RB, Baylor vs. Texas Tech – Under 57.5 Rushing Yards
Speaking of Baylor and UCF’s pathological inability to close out games, the Golden Knights allowed 100 rushing yards on 16 carries to Reese. A true outlier performance, Reese accrued eight yards against Texas , 37 against Utah and a measly 14 in their Week 1 loss to Texas State. Nominal starter Dominic Richardson had been injured, but returned last week to log 10 carries for 37 yards. Richardson should be fully up to speed now and ready to take on a close to 50/50 share of a Baylor rushing offense that ranks 89th in team performance according to CFB Winning Edge’s analytics.
For his part, Reese is a diminutive 5’9/182 and is one of the least dynamic backs in the country. Out of 125 FBS rushers with at least 45 carries, he ranks a dirt-low 119th in YAC (2.36) and 123rd in PFF elusiveness rating. He literally gets what is blocked, and nothing more, for a Baylor team that ranks 87th in rushing performance according to PFF. I’m on the Under against a Texas Tech team that steamrolled Houston for 239 rush yards and 6.5 YPC last week. I think Tech can score enough on this flawed Baylor D to force Colour and the Shapen into a heavy pass script. Give me the Under 57.5 Rushing Yards on Reese.
2023-10-06 13:26:23
#Week #College #Football #Player #Props #Primer
