Vaughn Dalzell shares how he’s attacking the Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Bucs and the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Falcons at Buccaneers (-2.5): O/U 37.0
We have a NFC South battle between the first-place Bucs and second-place Falcons in Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay won four of the past five meetings versus Atlanta, except for the final matchup of last season. When in Tampa, the Bucs won three straight, and of course, Tom Brady was the QB for all of those. While that will impact most people’s pick here, it will not be for me.
The Bucs lost at home 20-6 to the Lions last week and will be in a bounce-back spot at home versus a division opponent. The Falcons are coming off a London game then two straight at home, now playing its first true road game since 9/24, so almost an entire month.
This is not an ideal spot for Atlanta, who has lost three of the past four games. The Falcons lost those games by 14, 16, and 8 points with a 2-point win versus the Texans, which we were on.
I am not confident in rookie Desmond Ridder and Atlanta’s offense on the road here versus the Bucs’ defense. Tampa Bay has a +6 turnover differential and Ridder has six interceptions thrown himself, tied for the third-most in the NFL.
Ridder also struggles under pressure, completing 48.1% of his passes for 5.9 yards per attempt and Tampa Bay blitzes at third-highest rate in the league.
I played Tampa Bay on the ML at -136 nd -145 odds. I would go out to -150 before opting for -2.5 or -3. The Bucs’ two losses came versus the Eagles and Lions, two of the top 10 teams in the NFL.
Pick: Bucs ML (Risk 1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Steelers at Rams (-3.5): O/U 44.0
The Steelers are coming off a bye week and expect Steelers Nation to be traveling with the team to Los Angeles when they take on the Rams.
Los Angeles earned its first home win of the season versus the Cardinals last week and had its best rushing performance of the year with 179 yards and 6.8 yards per carry.
The Steelers have their woes both running and stopping the run this year, but coming off a bye week gives them extra prep time as well as time to heal up.
Mike Tomlin is 12-4 on the ML following a bye week in his Steelers’ coaching career. After last season’s bye week, Pittsburgh won six straight, going 7-2 after a 2-6 start last year. The Rams are 0-3 in their last three games facing a team coming off a bye week.
The Rams are a step up in passing offense for the Steelers, but the extra prep time as well as T.J. Watt being cleared to play helps. When Stafford has been under pressure the season, the veteran QB has completed 39.4% of his passes (30th) for 6.1 yards per attempt (16th) and one touchdown pass.
The Steelers are averaging 5.6 sacks + takeaways per game, the third-most in the league, so I assume Pittsburgh will blitz heavy, get some sacks, and force turnovers to make life easier on Kenny Pickett and this offense.
I grabbed the Steelers +3.5 at -110 odds and sprinkled the ML at +140.
Pick: Steelers +3.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Follow on X @Vmoneysports for my Lamar Jackson prop.
Season Record: 28-16-1 (63.6%) +10.0 units
National Tight End Parlays
A bunch of sportsbooks are offering boosts for anytime touchdown parlays or first touchdown scorer bets on tight ends for National Tight End Day. Here are my two anytime touchdown parlays sprinkled in for National Tight End Day.
+3036
Mark Andrews (BAL) vs. Lions
Cade Otton (TB) vs. Falcons
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. Chargers
+2026
Mark Andrews (BAL) vs. Lions
Tyler Higbee (LAR) vs. Steelers
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. Chargers
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2023-10-22 15:54:29
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