ESPN Betting AnalystsSep 29, 2023, 08:59 AM ET5 Minute Read
Will Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins keep smiling in the Week 4 matchup against the Bills?Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 4? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum and Seth Walder are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Miami at Buffalo (-2.5, 53.5). The Dolphins are coming off of a 50-point victory over Denver and the Bills have outscored opponents 75-13 during the past two weeks. Wow! Who are you taking in this huge early-season AFC East matchup?
Moody: Miami has the most explosive offense in the league, ranking first in total yards and points. While the Dolphins are fun to watch, they’ve lost nine of their past 10 games against the Bills, including the playoffs. It’s important for Buffalo to make a statement, especially because many people think its championship window is closed. With an average time to throw of 2.2 seconds, Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in that department, but the Bills’ defensive front ranks third in pass rush win rate. Buffalo will cover the spread here in what Vegas expects to be a close game.
Fulghum: This is a hard game to handicap. I don’t have a strong conviction on the side as I think either team could win the game. In that case, sometimes I think it’s just a wise bet to take the ML underdog. In this case, it’s far from uncomfortable to back the Dolphins given what they’ve shown this season. If forced to pick a side, that’s what I’d do.
The Dolphins moved from 12-1 to 8-1 to win the Super Bowl, giving them the fourth-shortest odds (behind 49ers, Chiefs and Eagles). They were 25-1 entering the season. At 8-1, is Miami still a good value bet to win the Super Bowl?
Walder: According to FPI, yes. We make Miami’s chances to win it all a whopping 29% — but I would caution on that number. The model does tend to be a bit jumpy early in the season and it falls fast for teams. That being said, the Dolphins were my preseason Super Bowl pick so, yeah, I’m pretty far in. It’s expensive given how much competition there is in the AFC so I don’t love it the way I once did. But if pressed, sure, I’d say go for it.
Fulghum: I think they do have betting value for the Super Bowl. The offense appears to be even more explosive than it was a season ago. Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive coordinators of this generation. CB Jalen Ramsey hasn’t even suited up yet, and it hasn’t mattered. Maybe they even make a move for RB Jonathan Taylor. I think the Dolphins are a legit threat to everyone in the NFL, including Patrick Mahomes and the defending champion Chiefs.
What games are you looking forward to betting this week?
Walder: Texans +3 is interesting to me. The Steelers have been led by their defense and the Texans’ rookie class is really showing up. Tank Dell looks like a real player, Will Anderson Jr. is tied for the second-most pass rush wins in the league and — not to bury the lede — C.J. Stroud is showing tremendous upside.
Fulghum: Rams/Colts is interesting to me, assuming QB Anthony Richardson is back for the Colts. The Rams have been one of the most surprisingly competitive teams in the league relative to expectation (2-0-1 ATS), and Richardson is already one of the most exciting talents in the league and third-shortest odds for Rookie of the Year. Vegas thinks this game is interesting as it has moved to a PICK ‘EM at Caesars. With the way the Rams’ passing attack has looked for most of this season and Richardson’s dynamic talent, it could be a tight and entertaining shootout in Indy.
Is there anything else you are playing on Sunday?
Fulghum: Almost every passing game OVER for the Bengals, Chargers, Rams and Raiders. The Titans are the biggest pass funnel defense in the NFL and the Bengals finally got Ja’Marr Chase back on track. The Chargers and Raiders both have awful pass defenses and hyperconcentrated distribution within their offenses. We know Herbert is gonna throw a lotand with no Mike Williams, Keenan Allen is going to eat. Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers have accounted for 79.6% of Las Vegas’ receptions through three games. I already mentioned the potential fireworks we could see with Matthew Stafford and Richardson squaring off.
Moody: Kirk Cousins over 1.5 passing touchdowns. It bodes well for Cousins and the Vikings’ passing game that the Panthers’ defense has been decimated by injuries at all three levels. Cousins has averaged 46 pass attempts and 3.0 passing touchdowns this season and should still meet or exceed those averages, even on the road.
Moody: DeVonta Smith over 59.5 receiving yards. In Week 4, the pendulum will swing back to Smith after A.J. Brown’s strong performance against the Buccaneers last week. The Eagles boast one of the league’s best offensive lines, with a pass block win rate that ranks among the top five. Smith has had success against the Commanders, and quarterback Jalen Hurts should have time to deliver the football to him. He’s averaged 7.7 targets and 75.5 receiving yards against Washington.
Moody: Evan Engram over 46.5 receiving yards. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the entire Jaguars offense will be anxious to bounce back in London against the Falcons. Engram is one player I project to be actively involved against Atlanta. He ranks first among tight ends in yards after catch, is second in receptions and third in receiving yards. The Falcons’ defense has allowed a number of tight ends to perform beyond expectation, including Lions Sam LaPorta most recently.
Walder: Michael Danna under 0.25 sacks (-125 at DraftKings). Danna has 2.5 sacks on the season but has never had more than five sacks in a year and has just a 6% pass rush win rate. Even though he’s on the team that’s heavily favored and going against Zach Wilson, the price is too good here on the under.
2023-09-29 12:59:00
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