The Unpredictable Nature of the US Open: Can Alcaraz or Djokovic Break the Trend?

According to current trends, neither Carlos Alcaraz nor Novak Djokovic will win the US Open this year. It has been five consecutive years that the American Grand Slam has been offered to five different players and the Spaniard, defending champion, just like the Serbian, winner in 2018, are already in the lot. So, whose turn is it this year?

Obviously, the longer a series lasts, the closer it comes to the end. And this one, no doubt, especially. But the general idea is there: no other major tournament offers such a turnover among its winners, at least for a few years. And it is also valid for girls, with the exception of Wimbledon where seven different players have won the last seven editions (current series).

If we extend these figures to the entire history of the game, the finding is similar. The US Open is a tournament that is more difficult to tame than the others, including for the Big Three who, we talked about it here last year, never really succeeded in making New York their kingdom. , as Rafael Nadal knew how to do at Roland-Garros, Roger Federer at Wimbledon and Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open.

Federer, who managed to triumph there five times (in a row) between 2004 and 2008, remains the most successful champion at Flushing Meadows, but he must share this honor with Jimmy Connors and Pete Sampras. Believe it or not: since the Swiss’ last title 15 years ago, no other champion has managed to retain their title in the Arthur Ashe Stadium, which has seen ten different winners in the meantime. Uplifting. A little too much to be the mere fruit of chance.

Roger Federer during his coronation at the US Open 2008

Credit: Getty Images

At the US Open, not a quiet day, not a quiet night

In the geographical sense of the term, it is a certainty: the US Open is the most difficult Grand Slam to win. Located in the borough of Queens, far from that of Manhattan where most players stay during the tournament, the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center is only accessible after a journey that can take almost an hour, or even more if traffic gets involved, which is regularly the case in New York. Before even setting foot on the court, it’s tiring.

Fatigue. This is probably one of the words that comes up most often among players in New York. The US Open is a tiring tournament, in many ways. It is customary to say that Roland-Garros is the most difficult Grand Slam tournament on a physical level, Wimbledon on a technical level, the Australian Open on a meteorological level… The US Open is demanding on all plans. Absolutely all.

“All the Grand Slams have their specificities: the Australian Open has this very relaxing side, Roland-Garros is a tournament with a lot of emotions, Wimbledon has its traditions… At the US Open, it’s constant excitement, there is always a form of chaos, the public can go completely crazy… Honestly, it is one of the most difficult tournaments to win and especially for the youngest, because there are also lots of distractions in Manhattan”, analyzed last year the American Michael Chang who, as precocious as he was, had to “wait” until he was 24 to finally reach the final in New York, the fourth and last of his career. in Grand Slam, in 1996.

A controlled start and then Federer completely thwarted… The summary of an improbable defeat

Incidentally, his words only reinforced the performance of Carlos Alcaraz, who became last year, at 19 years and 3 months, the second youngest winner in the history of the tournament behind Pete Sampras, winner in 1990 at 19 years and 4 weeks. They also explain why Novak Djokovic chose, during his last visit in 2021, to settle in New Jersey rather than “undergo” the energy-consuming atmosphere of Manhattan.

We saw it again this year with the episode of this crazy supporter insulting in the stands former player Viktor Troicki, now coach of Hamad Medjedovic, during a match of his foal during the qualifications of the tournament: in New York, he there is not a quiet day, let alone a quiet night.

The atmosphere there is eternally electric, and if you add to that “the noise and the smell” – and even then, it was much worse when planes were allowed to fly above the stadium to land on a runway at the nearby La Guardia airport – we will understand how difficult it is to keep calm and concentrate at the US Open.

The heat-humidity “combo”, or the definition of hell

Especially when bodies and minds are tired – we come back to this – which is again often the case at the US Open. His position as the last Grand Slam in the calendar, at an already well advanced stage of the season, has earned him the appearance of a lot of players already a little on the rim, when it’s not downright at the end of the race.

Djokovic has himself reached the breaking point there several times: his last three appearances have resulted in an abandonment in 2019 against Stan Wawrinka (in the eighth round), a disqualification in 2020 against Pablo Carreño Busta (in the eighth round as well) and a crack nervous under pressure in the 2021 final against Daniil Medvedev, as he played a calendar Grand Slam match.

It is true, as we saw again recently in Cincinnati, that the Serb is not a big fan of the weather which often prevails at this time of the year in the American East, where the heat and the rate of he humidity reaches levels which, combined, sometimes border on unbearable. Also washed out by these conditions, Roger Federer will admit that he “almost passed out” during his 8th night final against John Millman in 2018.

Richard Gasquet, who is the type to sweat a lot, has also had a lot of setbacks there in the past. Also last year, when playing his first round against Taro Daniel in one of those moist heat he abhors, he had made his arrangements: “About fifteen polo shirts, six or seven pairs of socks, three pairs of shoes and I’ve used almost everything! When you get there, you know you’re going to suffer…”

Moment of eternity: on the edge of the precipice and applauded, Djokovic in tears on his chair

Alcaraz, winner of the New York Marathon

To win seven matches in a row under these conditions, it is better to know how to preserve your energy capital. Or, be young and dashing. In this regard, Carlos Alcaraz achieved another notable performance last year: he became the first player since 2001 to win the US Open after having played more than one match in five sets (three in this case) on the road to the final. The last to do so was Lleyton Hewitt who, in 2001, had won two matches in five sets before beating Pete Sampras in the final. The Australian was then 20 years old…

To say how rare the feat is: in 10 of the 22 editions played since the beginning of the 21st century, the winner has not even had to play a single match in five sets before the final. Before Alcaraz, the last winner to have escaped a “five setter” was Stan Wawrinka in 2016. The Swiss saved a match point against Daniel Evans in the 3rd round, before triumphing a week later against Novak Djokovic in the final.

A winning last serve and immeasurable joy: Alcaraz’s historic match point

In New York, it is therefore better to avoid marathons, which is not an easy task on a surface which is ultimately the most universal of all, and on which everyone is more or less comfortable. This is obviously much less true today, but grass and clay remain, more or less, a matter for specialists, where all styles can be expressed on hard court. This contributes to making the US Open a jungle from which it is particularly difficult to extricate oneself.

In the end, that Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are the big favorites to meet in the vastness of the Arthur Ashe stadium for a final that everyone dreams of, it is obvious. But despite the lead taken by the two men over the rest of the world tennis peloton, it is also a prospect far from being confirmed. It should be remembered that the US Open is the only major tournament where Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have never faced each other, even at the height of their hegemony. It is a lack, real, in their legendary rivalry. But in the end, it’s probably not entirely fortuitous.

Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz after their Homeric final in Cincinnati

Credit: Getty Images

2023-08-25 21:40:00
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