ESPN Aug 27, 2023, 10:40 AM ETRead: 8 min.
NBA: who will be the most valuable, the rookie of the year and the best defender?
Sebastián Martínez Christensen comments on who his candidates are to win three of the most important individual prizes in the competition.
How many wins will the defending champions of the West get? Can the revamped Suns defeat a dominant Denver? Our panel of experts reveals their projections for 2023-24.
If our NBA summer forecast predicts anything, it’s this: An all-out fight awaits us in the Western Conference as teams try to chase down the defending champion Denver Nuggets after their dominant 2022-23 campaign.
With most of the Nuggets’ core healthy and back, that task might not be so easy. Then again, this is the conference with Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors reloaded; Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and the Phoenix Suns; and Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and the Dallas Mavericks.
And who could forget LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers?
And that’s not to mention the up-and-coming Sacramento Kings or the LA Clippers on paper. Will Victor Wembanyama have a significant impact for the San Antonio Spurs? What kind of jump will the Oklahoma City Thunder enjoy? Can Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert pull it off together?
Welcome to the 2023-24 Western Conference. Team by team, this is how our panel of experts sees how the situation breaks down.
Western Conference standings
The Nuggets swept the Lakers in the Western Conference finals before defeating the Heat in the NBA Finals.Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
the contenders
1. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
2. Phoenix Suns: 51-31
3. Golden State Warriors: 47-35
4. Sacramento Kings: 47-35
5. Los Angeles Lakers: 46-36
6. LA Clippers: 45-37
The Nuggets are our clear pick to lead the West after a dominant conference performance in 2022-23. Their 16-3 playoff run ended in Denver when they hoisted the Larry O’Brien NBA Championship Trophy for the first time in franchise history.
The dynamic duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are back for more, as Denver remains the favorite to repeat, according to 2024 title odds at Caesars Sportsbook. The question is: who in the West can stifle what the Nuggets hope will be a dynastic run?
Phoenix, according to our experts, constitutes the biggest threat within the inner circle of title contenders. The revamped Suns feature a recently acquired Bradley Beal alongside Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton. If the Suns can develop their depth and stay healthy, they’ll certainly demand attention in the West.
But don’t despair of the No. 3-ranked Warriors. They return with one of the deepest teams in the conference, led by franchise stalwarts Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. Now, with the addition of Chris Paul, the Warriors add a different dynamic to their All-Star lineup.
Not far behind them, however, are the Kings, who exceeded all expectations last season under first-year coach Mike Brown, who was later named Coach of the Year. After making their first playoff appearance in 16 years, the Kings led the defending champion Warriors to an epic seven-game series. Sacramento’s rise should continue, as long as it tackles its 25th defense.
Our panel ranks the Lakers in fifth place after an unexpected playoff run that brought them face-to-face with the Nuggets in the conference finals. The Lakers barely made the postseason, but they maintained their roster depth this offseason by retaining Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura and standout guard Austin Reaves.
And the Clippers, perhaps perennial contenders, brought back Russell Westbrook and Mason Plumlee to team up with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. As has been the variable for years: if they stay healthy (perhaps the biggest case in basketball) this projection could be too low.
The Thunder lost their play-in game last season to the Timberwolves.Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
The play-in group
7. Oklahoma City Thunder: 45-37
8. Memphis Grizzlies: 44-38
9. Dallas Mavericks: 43-39
10. Minnesota Timberwolves: 43-39
The thought of Luke Doncic, Ja Morant and Anthony Edwards fighting for play-in spots tells us, once again, about the depth of the Western Conference: no team in the top six will be comfortable facing any of these players in the first round. of the playoffs.
For Doncic and the Mavs, returning to the playoffs seems imperative after missing out last season. More than that, a deep run is expected after reaching the conference finals in 2022. Kyrie Irving extended his stay in Dallas and the team boosted two problem areas (defense and shooting) by trading Grant Williams and bringing back Seth Curry.
Doncic is with Slovenia at the FIBA World Cup, so the preseason conditioning problems that have dogged him in past seasons could abate. But Jason Kidd is under pressure to get Doncic and Irving in sync early on.
The Grizzlies, for their part, might have to dig out of an opening hole with Morant suspended for the first 25 games. And when he returns, his supporting cast will be different as Tyus Jones (to Washington) and Dillon Brooks (to Houston) are gone.
But Morant’s absence will be mitigated by the addition of Marcus Smart, who gives Memphis a mainstay in the backcourt to maintain stability.
Could this be the year for Wolves to jump to the top tier? Edwards signed a five-year, $260 million contract this summer and, based on his performance at the FIBA World Cup, he could go one step closer to becoming one of the league’s star players. The team’s hopes will likely depend on how well Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns mesh together during the season.
The Thunder project as another team with a lot of potential, particularly if center Chet Holmgren makes a productive debut after missing all of last season with injury. The Thunder revolve around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but his teammate Josh Giddey should be among the league leaders in assists. There’s plenty of talent on Mark Daigneault’s bench, but it could be another season or two before it all clicks.
Zion Williamson played just 29 games for the Pelicans last season, missing the last 45 due to a hamstring injury suffered on Jan. 2.(Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
the bottom five
11. New Orleans Pelicans: 42-40
12. Utah Jazz: 37-45
13. Houston Rockets: 29-53
14. San Antonio Spurs: 27-55
15. Portland Trail Blazers: 24-58
The Pelicans project to fight for a place in the play-in tournament, while continuing to deal with injury after injury after injury. New Orleans is two different teams when Zion Williamson is on the field; he ranked eighth in offense and was 10 games over .500 before his departure in early January. Improving the team’s 21st offense should be a top priority.
The Jazz, after their blistering start last season, are still looking for ways to support All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen and rookie center Walker Kessler. In an effort to do so, they acquired John Collins, but they still project to miss out on the play-in.
Our panel thinks highly of the Rockets and projects a seven-win improvement from last season. With one of the youngest rosters in the NBA and a new coach in Ime Udoka, the Rockets will rely on recently acquired veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to run their defense along with young lottery picks Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. .
The Spurs have their next franchise player in Victor Wembanyama, but that doesn’t mean his jump will be immediate. However, the No. 1 overall pick, the best prospect in decades, will accelerate this rebuild, along with a core of young players including Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Malaki Branham.
The Trail Blazers project to land at the bottom of the Western Conference as they remain stuck in Damian Lillard limbo. The team got off to a strong start to their 2022-23 campaign, going 10-4, but finished the season 23-45, working their way up to the No. 3 pick and Scoot Henderson.
2023-08-27 14:40:00
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