why Jonas Vingegaard’s performance is (or is not) believable

No rider in the modern cycling era achieved a better performance in a time trial than Jonas Vingegaard on Tuesday in the Tour between Passy and Combloux. This logically raises many questions, but they can also be answered.

Let’s start with the raw numbers. Jonas Vingegaard won the 22.4 km time trial with a lead of 1 minute and 38 seconds over Tadej Pogacar. He set the third, Wout van Aert, at 2 minutes and 51 seconds. This made him 4.38 seconds per kilometer faster than the Slovenian, and 7.63 seconds per kilometer faster than the Belgian.

Expressed in speed: Vingegaard achieved an average of 41.227 km/h, Pogacar 39.260 km/h (just under 2 km/h slower) and Wout van Aert 37.913 km/h (3.3 km/h slower).

Those are immense differences that have not yet been recorded in the modern cycling era. According to statistics website Procyclingstats, the previous biggest difference between first and second in WorldTour time trials in the last ten years was 2.43 seconds per kilometer. That feat was accomplished this year by Filippo Ganna, when he won the 11.5km Tirreno-Adriatico time trial by 28 seconds, helped in part by better weather conditions.

Fabian Cancellara did a fraction better in the prologue of the 2009 Tour de Suisse: 2.44 seconds per kilometer ahead, over 7.8 km, for a difference of nineteen seconds in total. The Swiss, perhaps the best time trialist of this century, never finished second at a longer distance in a time trial at WorldTour level.

Merckx in co

Even more impressive is Vingegaard’s lead when you dive into Tour history, and his time trial to Combloux next to the toughest time trials of the greatest time trial specialists in The large loop since World War II: Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins, Lance Armstrong

Jan Ullrich, Miguel Indurain, Bernard Hinault, Eddy Merckx, Jacques Anquetil in Fausto Coppi.

This century, only Lance Armstrong came somewhat close, admittedly with banned fuel, when in the climb time trial to L’Alpe d’Huez, in the 2004 Tour, he beat Jan Ullrich 1 minute and 1 second over 15km, or 3 .93 seconds per kilometer. That victory was also later taken away from the American.

Ullrich in turn set Richard Virenque in the time trial of the 1997 Tour to Saint-Etienne at 3 minutes and 4 seconds, or 3.34 seconds per kilometer over 55 km.

The record lead of Indurain, Hinault and Merckx in a Tour time trial was even less than 3 seconds per kilometer. For the Spaniard the record performance was 2.77 seconds per kilometer (Luxembourg 1992, 65 km), for the Frenchman 2.91 seconds per kilometer (Avioriaz 1979, 54 km) and for the Belgian 2.89 seconds per kilometer (Paris 1971, 53.9km).

Remarkable: except for Armstrong’s climbing time trial, they were all time trials of plus 50 km.

For an even bigger lead than that of Vingegaard (4.38 seconds per kilometer) you have to go back to the early sixties. In 1962, Federico Bahamontes won the climb time trial to Superbagnères, over 18.5 km, ahead of Jef Planckaert by 1 minute and 25 seconds, or 4.59 seconds per kilometre.

The year before, Jacques Anquetil completed the toughest time trial in post-war Tour history: from Versailles to Versailles, over 28.5 flat kilometers, he set Albert Bouvet at 2 minutes and 32 seconds, or no less than 5.33 seconds per kilometer. The third, Graziano Battistini, finished at 2 minutes and 39 seconds, or 5.57 seconds per km. Vingegaard put his teammate Van Aert (third) at a greater distance, albeit in half a climbing time trial.

????️Jonas Vingegaard ????????: “Yes I’m really really happy with the victory today and really proud of it. It’s my first time trial victory in the Tour de France, so yeah I’m really proud” ????️Jonas Vingegaard ????????: “Yes I’m really super happy with the victory today, and I…

pic.twitter.com/4TRJd0zTIu — Tour de France™ (@LeTour)

July 18, 2023

Is Vingegaard clean?

The logical question that burns on the lips of many cycling enthusiasts and journalists: how credible is that lead, especially the best driver in the world, Tadej Pogacar, and a time trial machine like Wout van Aert? Isn’t there a doping smell to it?

Based on the past, you can assume so. Many trainers of other teams will express their suspicions off the record. Perhaps they would even doubt Jumbo-Visma if another rider achieved such a performance.

Lees yesterday went over the Tour de France 2023

Nevertheless, cases also argue in favor of the Dane. Not only is he extremely talented physically, but he has also come to the Tour in his best form ever. He was in better shape than last year when his preparation was disrupted by illness. This time everything went smoothly. The wattages that Vingegaard has kicked in the cols in the past two weeks also prove that high form. He also has exceptional endurance, which has made him the best rider in the first two weeks of the Tour and is currently the freshest rider.

Moreover, it is sometimes forgotten how good Vingegaard is at time trial. Last year he would have already won the last time trial of the 2022 Tour, with much less altimeters, if he had not held back at the end to give Van Aert the victory.

Watts per kilogram

Why does the Dane excel so much in that discipline? Not because he puts so much pure power on the pedals, but because his watts per kilo, as a rider of less than 60 kilos, is higher than any other rider. This links the Jumbo-Visma rider to an exceptionally aerodynamic cycling position, he has a so-called CdA value that can be compared to that of Remco Evenepoel. That value is so low that Vingegaard can even cycle faster on the flat than Wout van Aert, as he did towards Combloux.

Vingegaard and his team are also maniacally working to perfect that position. His equipment gets just as much attention, from the bike to his helmet and shoes, to his outfit (although Vingegaard wore a suit from the Tour sponsor in this time trial, which may have cost him a few seconds).

The Dane made the biggest difference on the eight kilometers uphill. On the Côte de Domancy, only Gulio Ciccone rode up six seconds faster than him, but the Italian spared himself for that climb and sprinted all the way up with an eye on the King of the Mountains classification. The third best, Simon Yates, finished 23 seconds behind Vingegaard on the 2.5 kilometer long Côte de Domancy.

Vingegaard also made the best choice by not changing bikes for the Côte de Domancy, which Tadej Pogacar did, but also cost him time. Even with a normal road bike, he could no longer make up time on the Jumbo-Visma runner.

Trail from outside

In addition, the Dane also whizzed through the corners, also in the descent. According to the data of the Tour, he even reached the fastest speed of all riders (81.9 km/h). His steering skills, especially on his time trial bike, are therefore underestimated. Vingegaard is one with his time trial bike, because he also trains so much on it.

He has also been focusing on this time trial and the course for months. As early as March, he analyzed a video with trainer Mathieu Heijboer about how they would draw up the pacing plan (the wattages and speed per part of the course).

Vingegaard also really explored the course in May, again on the rest day, and again on Tuesday morning. He could visualize every centimeter of the 22.4 kilometers in this way. You could see that in the way he took every corner, while big competitor Tadej Pogacar was clearly less aggressive. Pogacar also acknowledged that he didn’t have his very best legs. While Vingegaard says he felt great.

Benefit of the doubt

It is up to you to judge whether Vingegaard’s performance is credible or not, and whether that should be linked to prohibited substances. We don’t put our hands in the fire for anyone, but based on what we’ve described above, we’ll give the Dane the benefit of the doubt. Sometimes exceptional achievements by an extremely talented sportsman, who receives the very best guidance, are simply exceptional. Without a doubt.
2023-07-18 20:07:40
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