By Ole Frerks
Continuity is a rare commodity in the NBA. While it is recognized how valuable it can be, it is often not achievable because of the many challenges associated with it. Continuity depends on human factors (team and player side), it needs trust, it’s expensive. And the common thing is: even if you are patient and do almost everything right, there is still no guarantee of success. Finally, the luck factor (among other things) also plays its part.
The Denver Nuggets were “rewarded” in 2023 for their patience and faith in a duo that has been playing together since 2016 and has since been stellarly complemented. A trust that hasn’t crumbled despite Jamal Murray’s injuries. They are a prime example of continuity, but also an exception. For every Denver there is at least one Portland, probably more.
Damian Lillard’s trade request is a more likely event than Nikola Jokic’s championship at the team that drafted him. The last three Finals MVPs belonged to this category, but before that only Kawhi Leonard (2014) and LeBron James (2016) made it since Dirk Nowitzki (2011). Both have played for other teams since then, LeBron had previously spent four years in Miami. As a rule, teams and their superstars don’t stay together forever (anymore).
In this respect, the focus is currently on two teams that only made a sign-and-trade deal with each other last week: The Mavericks and Celtics. Not just because of the deal that brought ex-Celtic Grand Williams to Dallas, there are some connections between their situations.
Dallas Mavericks: (too) impatient for years
Dallas has had its franchise player since 2018. Every move the Mavs have made since then has aimed to build the team around Luka Doncic. There was almost nothing patient about it – the old “regime” around Donnie Nelson took a massive risk in Doncic’ rookie season with the trade for Kristaps Porzingis and the subsequent maximum contract extension, his successors around Nico Harrison have continued seamlessly to date .
Dallas often acted in an actionist manner. There are four players left from Doncic’ rookie season (Doncic, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Tim Hardaway Jr.). Even the team that reached the Conference Finals in 2022 is now just those players plus Josh Green. The Mavs lost the best Doncic teammate, Jalen Brunson, who was specially drafted in the second round, to the Knicks without replacement.
Sometimes the Mavs were unlucky with their moves, sometimes they gambled (e.g. in the early negotiations with Brunson). In any case, the result is that Dallas has already exhausted many of its team building opportunities and is slowly but surely under a lot of pressure. Sure, Doncic is still under contract for at least three years (plus player option for 26/27) – but it is foreseeable how much that will be worth if Dallas should even miss the play-in again.
Mavericks with good offseason
On paper, the Mavs’ offseason has been very successful so far. Kyrie Irving’s expiring contract was extended (below the maximum possible sum and term), which was almost without alternative after last season’s trade. Brunson would have been more reliable and cheaper, but this error could no longer be rectified. The supporting cast has been transformed.
In the course of the draft, the Mavs brought athleticism and length into the squad, in particular Olivier Maxence-Prosper (easier: O-Max!) should play a role fairly quickly. Richaun Holmes can play minutes on the five until No.12 pick Dereck Lively II is “ready”. NBA returnee Dante Exum should bring defense in the backcourt, Seth Curry should throw.
And then there’s Williams: the beefy combo forward is the de facto replacement for Dorian Finney-Smith, who was traded for Irving last season. On the four he is supposed to defend, hit spot-up threes and play out overpower situations that arise from the penetration of Doncic and Irving. His responsibility with the ball should be greater than last time in Boston.
San Antonio bets against the Mavs
That can be a good fit, although Williams isn’t the (wing) stopper the Mavs arguably need, and while he’s a good but not always willing spot-up shooter. He’s still a capable two-way roleplayer, a type of player the Mavs are still short of. So it had its price.
Dallas didn’t just give up Reggie Bullock for him, who was on the court for almost 40 minutes per game in the 2022 playoff run and was the best backcourt defender in the squad. The Mavs also agreed an unprotected 2030 pick swap with the Spurs. That’s a bet that Doncic and the Mavs will be successful together over the long term – the Spurs are betting against it.
There are reasons for this too. There is a lack of draft assets and financial leeway to continue maneuvering. Doncic’s designated co-star is, well, not always available. The most interesting young players in the roster have “good role player” rather than “star” upsides. The defense is still suspect, especially since the Mavs did not get Matisse Thybulle.
Dallas: The risk remains high
This begs the question of how much better the Mavs have really become as a result. The offseason isn’t over yet: the midlevel exception is still available (candidates would be Kelly Oubre Jr., Terence Davis or (RFA) PJ Washington) and a hardaway trade is still to be expected according to Marc Stein. But does this change anything fundamental?
As of now, the Mavericks are still an outstanding offensive team with big defensive question marks that will remain very dependent on their two best players. They don’t have many ball handlers apart from Doncic and Irving (who played 60 games in 22/23 for the first time since 2019). Last season Doncic also missed 16 games and Dallas lost 11 of them.
This is not to say that the mix CAN’T work in Dallas. As mentioned, the offseason has been successful so far, given the possibilities, there is absolutely potential for 45+ wins. But there are, especially in the incredibly deep Western Conference, several scenarios that could land Dallas in the play-in ranks or even outside it again.
The Celtics are also getting impatient
Dallas has become a team with massive variance since the first Porzingis trade, a fact well illustrated by back-to-back seasons of Conference Finals vs. missing the play-in. The Celtics, on the other hand, have been a paragon of consistency over the past few years – since Jayson Tatum was drafted (2017), the Celtics have reached the Conference Finals four out of six years and the Finals once (2022).
In principle, of all current candidates, Boston would be the most likely to hope for a reward a la Denver, especially since the Celtics have come so close so often. On the one hand, they will do the same if Jaylen Brown signs his Supermax contract as expected. On the other hand, this offseason was also a decision against continuity.
The term actionism is perhaps exaggerated here – but the Celtics have now massively increased their variance and in the process turned their identity upside down. The farewell to Williams was to be expected, but of course the deal that brought Marcus Smart to Memphis and Doncic’s old acquaintance Porzingis to Boston weighs much more.
Boston relinquishes its leader
Smart has been the emotional leader of the Celtics for years. He was also the best passer in the squad and the key to the switch defense that was so strong, especially in 2022, because as a nominal point guard he was also able to defend bigs. It could be argued without a wink that at least situationally he is even a better center defender than the center he has now been sent off for.
From the front office’s point of view, Smart was still replaceable. Maybe because his minutes should go to Derrick White, maybe because he’s past his physical peak, maybe because of team dynamics. Maybe it was more because of Porzingis, who was not brought in as a superstar on an equal footing with Doncic, as he was in Dallas, but rather as the final piece of the puzzle.
In any case, the Latvian is a completely new type of player for the Celtics. He’s a big scorer, much more willing to throw than Williams or Al Horford, for example. He wasn’t a good Post player in Dallas, but he had much better success with it in Washington last season. If he can preserve that and consistently punish mismatches from now on, he’ll add another dimension to Boston, but also another player who isn’t exactly famous for his passing game.
Boston: The risky bet on KP
Defensively, it’s almost more interesting what Boston intends to do with him. He has his greatest value defensively as a drop defender or ring protector, which makes him massively different from Horford in particular. What coverage will Joe Mazzulla play with KP? How is it different when or if he’s on court alongside Robert Williams?
Boston has lost reliable rotation players in Smart and Grant Williams. In Porzingis there was probably more talent, but also more risk. Like Robert Williams, the Latvian is prone to injury, and Horford will soon be 40. Apart from all sporting questions, the question of whether the three Bigs (and Malcolm Brogdon) can survive a long season with a deep playoff run is at least as relevant.
The squad is not really deep now, but it is very close to the dreaded second apron. It remains to be seen if they are still using tools like the Taxpayer Midlevel Exception or the Williams Trade Exception that would break that limit. According to Spotrac, the Celtics are already facing a luxury tax of almost $22 million.
Boston: Very good, but good enough?
Boston will be pretty good anyway – the squad is still extremely strong at the top and Tatum in particular doesn’t usually miss many games. The key question is whether they are better when it comes down to it. According to all the indicators, this team was already good enough to become champions and has finished in the top 2 in the net rating three times in the past four years.
In 2022, Boston was a Stephen Curry explosion away from a 3-1 lead in the Finals. One cannot get much closer to the goal without achieving it. Against this background, it would have been understandable if Boston had continued to focus on continuity … but after the disappointing playoffs in 2023 (which were enough for Game 7 of the East Finals), trust, at least in parts of the squad, was obviously exhausted.
Now it’s the player whose trade Dallas started its current troubles over four years ago that’s destined to lift Boston over the threshold. While the Mavs are banking on a player who left his last three teams – including the Celtics – on the bad side. Continuity is also so rare because the teams, but also the players, are constantly looking for the right situation for them … and often get lost in the process. It will be interesting to see how these two teams and their players fare.
2023-07-10 21:41:13
#NBAKolumne #Boston #Celtics #und #Mavericks
