Heat-Nuggets NBA Finals Betting Trends, Tips: Unstoppable Underdog Force Meets Immovable Household Object – Jugo Mobile

The 2023 NBA Finals matchup between the Nuggets and the Heat reminds us of an adage in sports when two strong teams go head-to-head in a deciding game or series:

An unstoppable force meets an immovable object.

The phrase itself comes from the “Paradox of the irresistible force“, a classic paradoxical theory that dates back to the Chinese philosophical text “Han Feizi” in the 3rd century BC. The paradox typically applies to conflicts between two abstractly defined opposite extremes.

It works perfectly in the case of this unlikely championship pair. The Heat, who fell underdogs in 14 of their 18 games during the playoffs, defied the odds virtually the entire postseason, going up 9-5 straight as a “dog,” 11-3 against the spread as a “dog,” and 7- 3 ATS as a street dog. The Nuggets, top seed in the Western Conference, went 8-0 straight at home and 9-1 SU as favorites this postseason.

Now, “Playoff Jimmy” Butler and the unstoppable underdog from Miami arrive in Denver to face two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the immovable object that was the Nuggets at home. Don’t let Denver’s odds of -400 to -500 fool you – this is a compelling matchup featuring two of the best players in the NBA, two of the smartest, longest-serving coaches, and two of the strongest supporting cast.

We talk about how digging into betting trends, especially for Games 1 and 2, can translate into betting success during this best-of-seven series between the Nuggets and the Heat.

NUGGETS-HEAT BEST BETS: Game 1 Bet Preview | Series betting preview

An Unstoppable Force: Butler and Spo’s Heat

Call him Playoff Jimmy, Jimmy Buckets, Himmy or HIM – it doesn’t matter. We all know the legend of Jimmy Butler by this point, and we know all about the Clutch Player of the Year nominee’s stoic and icy approach to every game, regardless of pundits’ picks or oddsmakers’ quips. Eastern Conference Finals MVP, like Western Conference Finals MVP Jokic, impacts the game in countless ways.

Also, like Jokic, Butler enjoys an embarrassment of riches in terms of complementary pieces. Caleb Martin’s breakout of late has been a sight to behold. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus both made timely three-pointers and made key stops or clutch passes. After dropping out of Miami’s rotation, Duncan Robinson was back to smashing huge threes under the bright lights. Kyle Lowry and even Kevin Love contributed in myriad ways. That’s four unregistered guys and two dudes who two months ago were widely regarded as over the top.

The common denominator, apart from Butler, is Erik Spoelstra. It’s no coincidence that Miami has been among the best in the league since 2008-09 in both the regular season and postseason success. An ex-movie boy and a protégé of Pat Riley, Spo reads opposing attacks as well as anyone else in the NBA, and always seems to get the most out of the players no matter what role he plays.

Of course, one of Spoelstra’s only Kryptonites during his career was Denver. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Nuggets have gone 6-0 against the Heat. Dating back to ’17, the Nuggets are 12-2 against Miami. In the 10 games these two teams have met since Jan ’19, Denver has gone straight 9-1 E against the spread. All-out domination.

Here’s the thing: Through the spring of 2023, Boston had also enjoyed a hot streak against the Heat, going 8-4 against its rivals over the course of a year. So Spo made some changes. As of Dec. 2, Miami is 6-3 against the Celtics and 7-2 ATS. The good old “Culture of heat”.

An immovable object: the Nuggets in the house

While “Nuggets Culture” doesn’t come out quite the same, what Jokic, GM Calvin Booth and head coach Mike Malone have done in Denver in recent years is nothing short of amazing. Like Miami, this team is perfectly built around its franchise player. It has shooters; has stud defenders; and everyone from the first five to the twelfth man knows their roles.

The scariest part about facing the Nuggets, other than the fact that they have arguably the best player ever in the sport in Jokic and a microwave scorer in Jamal Murray, is Denver’s insane success at the Ball Arena. The Nuggets have gone 8-0 in altitude this postseason and now boast an NBA best 42-7 home run record since the start of the 2022-23 season. Only the Warriors have enjoyed a better home run record since the start of the regular season.

The Nuggets also went a staggering 9-1 straight favorites, so don’t even think about following the reckless crowd who gambled Miami’s +280 Game 1 win line (76 percent of ML bets and 60 percent of the ML handle were on heat). Recent history has shown this to be a bad idea, almost as bad as heating Wendy’s burger in the microwave without removing the foil wrap.

As mentioned, Spo and the Heat were possessed by the Nuggets in recent years, and now Malone and Jokic have had 10 days off following their win over the Lakers. That’s 10 days of prep, intrigue, film review, and strategy versus just a couple of days off for Miami. When they enjoyed a rest lead over their opponents from the start of the regular season, the Nuggets posted an NBA best 18-4 SU and 14-7-1 ATS.

The fact that Denver also went 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against Miami also likely contributes to the Nuggets’ series money line of somewhere between -400 and -500. We get it – that’s a pretty significant stat – and as we mentioned in our betting preview, we’re winning all of Denver and covering the spread in Game 1. However, there are a couple of betting trends that suggest betting blind against the Nuggets spread in every Ball Arena game could be a mistake.

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Dive deeper: The trends bettors should follow before betting

While Denver has been outstanding throughout the postseason, especially at home and as a favorite, it’s important to understand that the market has already adjusted to the Nuggets’ dominance. Denver has won nine of their last 10 games straight as a favorite, yes, but they’re only 6-4 against the spread in that span.

Even worse, Denver is just 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games as a favorite by at least seven points. Reduce the sample size between late March and now and the coverage rate gets even worse: 2-5. We love Denver to win this series – both my colleague Nick Musial and Steph Noh have Denver winning it all in five or six games, and yours really has Denver in six too – but, if you voted all three, they would probably all stay three away from betting on the Nuggets at -8.5 or better before every Ball Arena game.

Bet on the Nuggets to win and cover in Game 1, but bet Miami will cover in Game 2. If Denver blows the Heat doors down, Spo’s unit will score plenty of points next time out. Miami is up 28-17 after a loss since the start of the 2022-23 season. We’re not saying the Heat will win Game 2, but they definitely won’t be blown away after making changes after the series opener.

Here’s the most compelling reason to consider betting Miami against the spread, at least in Game 2: As of December 2019, the Heat have gone 23-7 against the spread when listed as underdogs by seven or more points. Since Nov ’21, 15-3 ATS have gone as “dogs of +7 or worse”. As Butler would say, “they have dogs” and they also know how to cover themselves like “heavy dogs”.

Keep that in mind before blowing your bankroll on Denver’s huge home spreads in this series. We’re not saying Denver’s immovable won’t prevail as a champion; we’re just saying that Miami’s relentless underdog force probably isn’t done defying expectations.