Why read this article? The Moneyball revolution is underway at Milan. No longer the history and charisma of Paolo Maldini, but artificial intelligence and an algorithm. But are we sure that the statistical analysis of player performance, applied to baseball, also works for football?
The art of winning. This is the Italian translation of Moneyball, a 2011 film by Michael Lewis, back in the limelight for the thriller developments of the summer of the Italian transfer market. For once, the Italians could find themselves discussing under the umbrella not about the signing of players, but about the departure of managers. After Paolo Maldini’s bombastic farewell, AC Milan seem willing to go down a Hollywood road. But we are sure that the transposition of Moneyball – from the big screen to reality, e from the diamond of the baseball field to the green rectangle of football – turns out to be a winner?
What is the Moneyball Effect?
To begin with, what is this juxtaposition Moneyball-Milan? The film tells – with the inevitable Hollywood aftertaste, which however manages not to lead to Americana – the transposition of “Miracle on Ice” with a bat and glove. Specifically, the sporting miracle is that of the Oakland AthleticsMajor League Baseball mattress team which, under the leadership of the general manager Billy Beane at the beginning of the 2000s he manages to set the record for consecutive victories. How did the worst team in all of MLB go from rags to riches? With the “Moneyball method”.
More precisely it is called sabermetricsda SABR – Society for American Baseball Research. As analyzed by Valerio Moggia of Ballonate in the facethe real creator of the “Moneyball method” is Bill James, who set out his theory in a book in 1977. According to James, with an in-depth study of the statistical data it was possible to extrapolate objective analyzes on the value of baseball players, discovering things that observers and coaches were not able to see. Long ignored, James – after the success of the Athletics – became a consultant to the Boston Red Sock. Thanks to moneyball they won the World Series again in 2004, avoiding a curse that had lasted since 1918. Thanks to moneyball, James was listed by Time as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. While, it is news of these hours, that Billy Beane will be AC Milan’s new market consultant. And here we come to the chiaroscuro behind the summer football revolution.
Moneyball in football did not work out
Yes, because for some years now, even football clubs have begun to look with interest at sabermetrics. Mainly because data and algorithms can allow you to be competitive without stellar economic expenses. The results, however, were not the same as in baseball. The non-football Moneyball effect does not appear to have occurred. The first “hook” between baseball and football came from the owners of the Oakland Athletics. In 2006 they bought the San José Earthquakes, with the faithful Billy Beane called to develop a “Moneyball method” for football. However, the story did not have a happy ending. In 2010 the club decided to shelve the project of Beane and his team.
From America, the Moneyball method moved to England. With Arsene Wenger all’Arsenal: team with a good game, but with few trophies. In the 15 years after the Premier League of the “invincibles” in 2004, Wenger’s Arsenal he won only three Fa Cups and two Community Shields. An observer of Wenger, the compatriot Damien Comolli, is considered one of the pioneers of analytics in player recruitment. Hired as manager by Tottenham and Saint-Étienne with good results, in 2010 he was called up by Liverpool. Operation Moneyball in the MErseyside was badly shipwrecked. Reds fans remember Comolli only the purchase of Andy Carroll: paid 42 million euros to Newcastle (second most expensive English ever, at the time), it was a disaster across the board. Not to mention the 50 million euros for bins like Charlie Adam, Stuart Downing e Jordan Henderson.
Moneyball only works small
To find encouraging results in the Moneyball Method you have to go down to the smallest detail. Very small, as in the case of Brentford at Matthew Benham. An Oxford graduate physicist who founded SmartOdds, a betting company that exploits original mathematical models. Benham in 2012 bought his Brentford in the English third tier, taking him to the Premier League…but in ten years. Even if, it must be admitted, always having the lowest budget in the category available.
Moneyball is also operated in Denmark, col Central JutlandHere too, there is an eccentric character behind the application. The writer Rasmus Ankersen, passionate about statistics and with a brief past as a footballer interrupted by a serious injury. In 2014, together with Benham, he bought Midtjylland, leading them to win in 2015 the first Scudetto and to reach the Champions League rounds.
Recently, the Moneyball method has found application in Olanda, all’AZ Alkmaar. In 2014 the club incredibly chose Robert Eenhoorn as general manager. A man with no soccer experience but a background as a baseball player. Punctual as death, our Billy Beane reappears, still as a consultant. In recent years, however, AZ has not won any trophies. If not the Youth League with the spring.
Football is not baseball
This brief overview of the Moneyball method therefore seems to confirm that the football is not baseball. The American one is a sport made up of continuous one-on-one duels and with strictly codified positions and movements. It is the mask of a team sport. In the film Brad Pitt takes three mediocre players to replace a strong one at a lower cost. In football it is not possible to replace a striker with 15 goals per season with three strikers with 5 goals each. And then, unlike the constant one-on-ones of baseball, the continuous interaction of 22 players on the football field creates a number of statistics that can be considered enormous. Let’s add the fact that, unlike American sports, football statistics (even the most advanced ones) return a slice that is still too small of analytical “truth” of an event. The wish in conclusion is that Milan’s Moneyball revolution doesn’t end up like Brad Pitt, protagonist of the film that was burned by Jean Dujardin for the Oscar for Best Actor.
