WTA Madrid: Iga Swiatek – Aryna Sabalenka: The rivalry also settles on earth

The context

It’s the perfect final. The one between the two main seeds of this WTA 1000 in Madrid who are also the two best players in the world in the ranking. Often criticized in recent years for its instability at the top and a certain permanence of surprises, women’s tennis seems to have found in Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka two sure values ​​for several months, and this visibly whatever the surface.

Eclipsed by the Aryna Sabalenka-Elena Rybakina duo during the first quarter on hard courts, Iga Swiatek approached the spring on clay with a lot of pressure. But in two tournaments, she showed that she was capable of assuming it. After defending her title on the indoor clay courts of Stuttgart, the Pole made the trip to Madrid, unlike last year – she was then on a series of 23 victories and had decided to rest to skip – and chained.

The altitude (660 meters), which is perhaps less favorable to her, did not seem to disturb her. With the exception of a tense round of 16 against Ekaterina Alexandrova which took a set from her, Queen Iga has never dropped more than three games per set in her other four matches of the tournament. The steamroller is therefore back and he will again face Aryna Sabalenka whom she had dominated for the title in Germany.

Not really known for her qualities as an earthling, the Belarusian was no less impressive. She passed her test of the week against the Egyptian Mayar Sherif in the quarter, then also giving up her only run in the competition. His power in service and exchange wreaks havoc in these conditions which make the ball “fly” more, Maria Sakkari was able to verify it in the half. In great confidence since her first Grand Slam title in Melbourne, she dreams of defeating Swiatek on her home turf. All the ingredients are there to attend a great game.

Face to face

• Iga Swiatek leads 5-2 in her duels against Aryna Sabalenka. The advantage is therefore clearly in favor of the Pole who recently beat her rival in the final in Stuttgart (6-3, 6-4), what is more.
• Nevertheless, the matches were close between the two players at the end of last season. After being beaten in three sets in the semi-finals of the US Open (3-6, 6-1, 6-4), the Belarusian had taken her revenge in the semi-finals of the Masters (6-2, 2-6, 6 -1).
• On clay, however, Swiatek has never lost a single set in three confrontations (Stuttgart and Rome 2022, Stuttgart 2023).

Their journey

Every Swiatek

2nd round: beats Julia Grabher [AUT] 6-3, 6-2
3e tour: bat Bernarda Pera [USA/28] 6-3, 6-2
Round of 16: beat Ekaterina Alexandrova [RUS/16] 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3
1/4 final: beat Petra Martic [CRO/27] 6-0, 6-3
1/2 finale: beat Veronika Kudermetova [RUS/12] 6-1, 6-1

Aryna Sabalenka

2nd round: beat Sorana Cirstea [ROU] 6-4, 6-3
3e tour: Bat Camila Osorio [COL] 6-4, 7-5
1/8e finale: bat Mirra Andreeva [RUS] 6-3, 6-1
1/4 de finale : bat Mayar Sherif [EGY] 2-6, 6-2, 6-1
1/2 final: bat Maria Sakkari [GRE/9] 6-4, 6-1

They said

Every Swiatek : “Every game is different and every duel against Aryna is hard, above all. I’m just going to focus and be as disciplined as possible to do my job. It does not matter how she will play or the conditions in which this final will take place.”

Aryna Sabalenka : “I really want to have this revenge. It would be really great to be able to beat a player like Iga on clay. After the Australian Open, everything changed. I feel like a different person, I see tennis differently. I have so much confidence in myself right now.”

Three stats to remember

9. It had been 9 years since the world numbers 1 and 2 had not faced each other in the final of a WTA 1000 on the circuit. It last happened in Miami in 2014 and American Serena Williams beat her Chinese runner-up Li Na (7-5, 6-1) at the time.

25. Before this final unlike Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka had to face a member of the Top 10 in the person of Maria Sakkari. By winning easily 6-4, 6-1, she won her 25th victory, one of the 10 best in the world since she opened her counter at Easbourne in 2018. A record in almost five years ahead of… Swiatek (24 ) which could therefore equal it on Saturday.

1550. This is the number of points ahead of Sabalenka in the Race (since January 1) over Swiatek. The Pole certainly still has 2084 units more than the Belarusian in the technical classification, but the next few weeks on clay will be fundamental in the race for the throne. If Sabalenka continues to excel also on ocher, she could melt on Swiatek, outgoing champion in Rome and Roland-Garros.

Our opinion

On clay, it is difficult to bet against Iga Swiatek. She may not yet be as favorite on the surface as was (and still is when he is physically fit) Rafael Nadal, her idol. But the Polish is technically above the competition on this surface, indisputably. In Madrid, she thus reached her 8th final in a tournament on ocher in 14 attempts, no one had done so well since Monica Seles between 1989 and 1992 (13/14 at the time!). This is to say its hegemony.

His qualities of movement and his ability to slide on earth are unrivaled on the WTA circuit. His kicked serve and topspin forehand also work particularly well. In all these sectors, she has a clear advantage over Aryna Sabalenka, whom she also dominated just two weeks ago in Stuttgart. For all these reasons, Swiatek has the cards in hand. But be careful, Sabalenka does not leave beaten.

Its large size allows it to suffer less from the high rebound of the Polish balls and favors it in the service. The clear progress of the Belarusian in this area – she is formidable on first and commits far fewer double faults – in recent months has made her more dangerous, especially in these altitude conditions which are well suited to her powerful tennis in a few strikes. Mentally, she has also passed into another dimension since her coronation in the Antipodes. It is therefore able to compete, but could give way to wear and tear.

Our prediction: Iga Swiatek en trois sets.