There’s an alternate universe in the NFL. One where Texans quarterback Davis Mills doesn’t connect with tight end Jordan Akins for an improbable touchdown on 4th-and-20 with a minute left against the Colts in the 2022 regular-season finale. Where Mills and Akins don’t connect again on the ensuing two-point conversion, propelling Houston to a dramatic 32-31 victory.
In this world, the Texans don’t make those clutch plays. Their win expectancy was 2.7% before the 4th-and-20. In 97.3% of scenarios, they would secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
What does that mean for Houston? What about Chicago? Carolina? Indianapolis?
FOX Sports NFL writers teamed up to play ‘what if’, breaking down the ramifications of the Texans — and not the Panthers, thanks to a trade with the Bears — holding the top overall selection with six impacted teams: Carolina, Houston (which holds the No. 2 pick), Arizona (No. 3), Indianapolis (No. 4) Seattle (No. 5) and Chicago (No. 9).
Houston Texans alternate timeline
The Texans get to select their clear-cut No. 1 quarterback — whether that’s Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, or even Florida’s Anthony Richardson or Kentucky’s Will Levis — to be their hopeful face of the franchise, as opposed to being at the mercy of the Panthers’ choice.
The chances of Houston entertaining offers for the No. 1 overall pick should be close to zero. Its need for a franchise quarterback is too great — Mills in 2022 proved that he’s not the long-term answer — and knowing the possibility of the Bears and Cardinals trading back as well as the quarterback-needy Colts right behind them, keeping the top pick might be the Texans’ only chance of getting one of the top four quarterbacks.
With the No. 1 pick all but certainly being used on a quarterback, the Texans have flexibility at No. 12 (their other first-rounder acquired from the Browns in last spring’s Deshaun Watson trade). They can add to the defensive line — Houston had the worst run defense in franchise history last season — or take a wide receiver at the spot, or trade down and still do the same thing, only armed with more draft capital. General manager Nick Caserio did the latter with his second first-rounder last year, moving down from No. 13 to 15 to take Texas A&M guard Kenyon Green. —Ben Arthur
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Impact score: 9 out of 10
Seattle Seahawks alternate timeline
Seattle received this pick as part of the blockbuster trade of Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. A Denver loss to the Los Angeles Chargers and a Chicago win over the Minnesota Vikings in the final week of the regular season would have propelled the Seahawks to the No. 2 overall pick. However, the Seahawks dropped to No. 5 with Denver defeating the Bolts, even with L.A. head coach Brandon Staley playing his frontline players for most of this one in a meaningless game for the playoff-bound Chargers.
There has been speculation that the Seahawks are interested in moving up to the No. 3 selection, presumably to select a quarterback. However, it’s hard to believe the Arizona Cardinals, who hold the third pick, would make a trade with another team in their own division. And Seahawks GM John Schneider has never traded up in the first round during his time in Seattle.
With Houston losing and Seattle getting the No. 4 overall selection, the Seahawks are in a slightly better position to take one of the top defensive players in this year’s draft — Alabama defensive end Will Anderson Jr. or Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. And with quarterbacks in demand, the Seahawks are one pick closer to selecting a developmental prospect to groom behind starter Geno Smith, like Will Levis or Anthony Richardson. —Eric D. Williams
Impact score: (6 out of 10)
Indianapolis Colts alternate timeline
With the divisional-rival Texans in control of the draft, that all but rules out a potential trade up to No. 1 for the Colts. But they certainly make that call to the Bears, who have the second pick and are looking to trade down. It’s something Indianapolis could seriously consider. The price to move from No. 6 to No. 2 would be steep, but less so than a jump to No. 1, which we know the Colts balked at.
Indianapolis is not in an ideal spot to find its franchise quarterback — three signal-callers will likely be selected before it’s on the clock — and quite a few teams could move ahead of them if they stay put.
For a shot at the top quarterbacks, the Colts would likely have to trade up to the second or third selection in the draft, whereas in the real world, there’s a real chance one of the top three makes it to them and they wouldn’t need to give up a bounty to move up. New coach Shane Steichen last week appeared to shut down Lamar Jackson speculation, saying the team is now focused on the draft when asked about the quarterback market. Previously, the team wasn’t ruling out a pursuit of Jackson. Owner Jim Irsay also sent his own… unique tweet about the team’s options.
—Ben Arthur
Impact score: 7 out of 10
Carolina Panthers alternate timeline
If the Texans don’t win and get the No. 1 overall pick, they’re much less likely to trade that pick. They need a quarterback themselves. So Carolina’s huge trade to move up from No. 9 to No. 1 is gone. Would the Panthers still make a play for the No. 2 pick with the Bears to land the second-best quarterback in the class? Perhaps, but that deal doesn’t likely happen until draft night (when they know who they can take) so there isn’t the same buzz and excitement around the Panthers having control of the draft and their choice of all the quarterbacks. That lucky rookie quarterback picked first isn’t going to nearly as good a team, so their NFL career has a tougher start than it would in Carolina. The Texans’ unlikely victory completely enabled the Panthers to become the story of the draft. —Greg Auman
Impact score: (8 out of 10)
Arizona Cardinals alternate timeline
A Houston loss doesn’t change anything for Arizona. The Cardinals remain in the same spot at No. 3 overall in the draft and in good position to help change their fortunes on the field. According to reports, at least six teams inquired with the Cardinals about trading up in the draft for the No. 3 overall selection. With a new general manager in Monti Ossenfort and a new head coach in Jonathan Gannon, the Cardinals are in rebuild mode, looking to replenish their roster talent. The No. 3 pick could serve as a trade chip to recoup more draft compensation and more picks to help build around quarterback Kyler Murray, or the Cardinals can stay put and take one of the top defensive players in the draft. —Eric D. Williams
Impact score: 2 out of 10
Chicago Bears alternate timeline
The entire city of Chicago rejoiced as former head coach Lovie Smith gifted the Bears a rare occurrence. This author has perhaps never been more proud to have named our family dog Lovie.
Had Smith made just one different decision in that final drive of the Texans’ game against the Colts in Week 18, the Bears are not looking at a haul like the one they got from Carolina. They definitely don’t have the leverage to acquire Moore along with all that valuable draft capital.
By trading up to the first overall pick, Carolina paid a premium to choose its quarterback. Even if a team like the Panthers, or one of the myriad others in need of a starting signal-caller, traded up to the second overall spot with the Bears, having that choice wouldn’t have been possible with the Texans in front. Houston would have its pick of the litter and whatever team came next wouldn’t have total control over its options.
Having the second overall pick drastically would have changed the Bears’ draft strategy in more ways than just the haul they could get in return. It’d be less, of course. Depending on which team traded up, Chicago could still snag a future first, but beyond that? Maybe another mid-round pick this year and a future second- or third-rounder. The Philadelphia Eagles gave up a similar haul when trading up from No. 8 in 2016 with the Cleveland Browns.
But the critical part of this is that there is no extra player, meaning the Bears certainly don’t get the Panthers’ best receiver for the No. 2 overall pick. Bears general manager Ryan Poles even said following the trade that getting Moore was a significant factor in choosing Carolina as their trade partner.
If they didn’t get Moore, they would still have a dire need for a No. 1 wide receiver who would aid in their evaluation of quarterback Justin Fields this coming season. And where are they supposed to get that player?
The trade from No. 1 overall also gave the Bears another second-round pick, which semi-compensates for the one they gave up for wide receiver Chase Claypool during last season, thereby neutralizing most of the pressure Poles was under to answer for it. If Claypool pans out, great. If not, no big deal. With Moore, they have their top wideout and a great supporting cast either way, plus multiple second-round selections.
If the Bears were trading down from No. 2 overall, getting another second-round pick this year may not have happened. They also wouldn’t have Moore. That means there would be much more pressure and eyes on the Claypool trade. He has to hit, otherwise it’s a major wasted resource for Poles.
Trading from No. 2, there would also simply be fewer resources for Poles to work with over the next couple years, meaning it could take longer for the Bears to complete their rebuild.
But that’s not the case. Chicago has a top-10 pick, a young star wideout, a hefty amount of draft capital now and in the future. The Bears are perhaps just one to two years out from contention.
And it’s all because Lovie Smith went for it. —Carmen Vitali
Impact score: 10 out of 10
This alternative history was penned by:
AFC South reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
NFC South reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
NFC West reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)
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