With each passing date, the anguish grows in the fans of two historic clubs, Once Caldas and Deportivo Cali. The poor results of 2023, added to the accumulated campaigns of the last two years and the rising performance of clubs like Huila and Boyacá Chicó, make relegation a real threat for both.
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It should be remembered that in Colombia the last two teams of a table that accumulates the points of three years are relegated. An average is used, which is obtained by dividing the number of points by the number of games played, counting only the round-robin phases (not home runs or finals).
However, in a regulatory modification that came into force last year, the teams that are promoted are only averaged with the points they have obtained since they arrived from B. Thus, Unión Magdalena only counts matches and points of 2022 and 2023, and Huila and Boyacá Chicó, what they have done so far this year.
Why Once Caldas and Deportivo Cali are so low in the table
Once Caldas and Deportivo Cali are victims of bad campaigns, some more distant than others. The Manizales team is still suffering from the burden of a very bad 2021, in which they only scored 37 points in 38 games. Last year he improved that average, with 56 points in 40 games, but this year it’s going very badly: 10 in 11 games.
Cali is no worse off thanks to the 62 points he scored in 2021, the year in which he was champion in the second semester. But the 2022 and 2023 campaigns have been calamitous: he was penultimate in the first half of last year, 18th place in the second semester and today he is the bottom runner of the championship.
The bad news for these two teams is that the two that were promoted are campaigning to stay. Huila, who started very badly, beat Cali on Sunday and already passed it in the permanence table. And Boyacá Chicó is making enormous savings: today it is first, but it still has to face several of the greats.
The threat of relegation for Once Caldas and Cali is real: today they only have two teams below: Unión Magdalena and Alianza Petrolera. But the differences have been greatly reduced in 11 dates.
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With Alianza Petrolera it is easier to compare how much it has cut, since it also accumulates three years for the average: it had started 10 points behind Once Caldas and 13 behind Cali. Today, that difference was reduced to six with those from Manizales and seven with the sugar growers.
The accounts with Unión Magdalena are more difficult to explain, but, although the Samarios’ campaign has not been good, this year they have scored two more points than Once Caldas and four more than Cali.
Historically, no Colombian team has been relegated with more than 1.25 points per game. The average of the lowest average to be saved, in the last ten years, is 1.07. Last year, Cortuluá fell to B with 0.78 and Patriotas, with 0.90.
But the bar is higher today. Unión Magdalena has 1.04 and Alianza, 1.10. Once Caldas is at 1.16 and Deportivo Cali, at 1.17. And there are still 29 dates to go, 9 of this semester and 20 of the second, for the two historic teams to react and save themselves from relegation.
If saved, Cali starts 2024 with an enormous threat
Another problem will be 2024, for which the Dimayor club assembly has already approved that the same relegation system be maintained: Deportivo Cali today would have the worst average of those that remain in A.
Doing the accumulated score account, the ballast is enormous: it loses the 61 points of 2021 and today it is 10 points below Unión, 15 behind Jaguares, 18 from Alianza Petrolera and 24 from Once Caldas, which would start something next year. Calmer. The issue of Cali is critical.
This is how the 2024 relegation table would begin, without counting the teams that ascend.
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Gone are the times when Once Caldas won the Libertadores and when Cali reached two finals in the same tournament. Permanence is uphill.
Jose Orlando Ascension
sports deputy editor
@josasc
