Bet on a Tampa Bay rebound

Just when it looked like the Rays might rewrite the record books after a perfect 13-0 start, the Blue Jays ended their historic winning streak on Friday to open a weekend streak.

But I wouldn’t bet against Tampa Bay who will have a laugh last Sunday with their ace on the mound.

For all the heroism we’ve seen from the Rays’ rotation this year, Shane McClanahan is still the crown jewel of that staff and one of baseball’s most feared pitchers.

And he’s been virtually untouchable in his first three starts of the season.

Entering the weekend, the 25-year-old left-hander had the third-highest strike rate in MLB (17.8%) and the eighth-best % in CSW (32.2%), and his contact rate of zone (75.9%) ranked second only to teammate Jeffrey Springs.

It’s no surprise McClanahan posted a 1.59 ERA ahead of his scheduled Sunday departure – even better than his mark from last year (2.54), when he finished sixth in Cy Young’s vote .

Conversely, there are legitimate reasons for concern for the third of 2022, Toronto’s Alek Manoah, who was already a clear candidate for regression after posting an xERA (3.31) well above his ERA real (2.24) last year.

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Sure enough, Manoah’s current xERA (8.01) is far worse than his already screaming ERA (4.91), and he’s one of only two qualified starters with a strikeout rate (15.9%) equal to or lower than his walking rate (15.9%). Because of how powerful this Rays roster is all season, I’m all-in at Tampa Bay scoring the outright upset in a minor revenge spot.

The game: Rays, -110.