Think Before You Take Matt Olson In Your Fantasy Baseball Draft

Before you hit ‘draft’ in your virtual draft room or shout out your chosen name in your buddy’s basement, be sure to ask yourself these questions: Is this player worth picking? at this stage ? Who else is available? Can I get more for my money later?

As for first basemen, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt will be the first four selected. The last of the best at the position is Matt Olson, a big power hitter who is stuck in the middle of a loaded Braves lineup.

The most important number to consider when writing Olson is this: 35.28. That’s his average draft position, according to Fantasy Alarm. He’s a top five baseman, but that doesn’t mean his ADP gives your team the best value there.

Now ask yourself these questions:

1. Is this player worth taking at this stage?

In his first year as Freeman’s backup in Atlanta, Olson ranked eighth in RBIs (103), 11th in home runs (34), and 24th in slugging percentage (.477). His average exit speed ranked in the top 3% in the league, and his hard-hit rate was in the top 4%.

While his BABIP of 0.276 indicates there was room for improvement, be aware that his average (0.240) has fallen more than 30 points after hitting 0.271 in 2021. His walk rate (10.7%) was down from 13.1% in 2021. His strikeout rate fell from 16.8% in 2021 to 24.3%. He stole no bases after having had four in 2021.

Olson’s numbers also dropped in the second half for a second straight year. After hitting .255 with 17 homers, 60 RBIs and an .828 OPS in the first half in 2022, he hit .219 with 17 homers, 43 RBIs and an .765 OPS after the break. That includes hitting .193 with a .695 OPS over the last 31 games — when fantasy owners needed him the most.

2. Who else is available?

For around the same ADP, you could have well-rounded players such as Francisco Lindor (36.65), Randy Arozarena (39.97), or Cedric Mullins (47.58). They may not offer Olson’s power or total RBI, but offer better averages, runs and something Olson will do Never provide: stolen bases. You can also catch a top-15 starting pitcher — like Spencer Strider (35.2), Max Scherzer (40.07), Brandon Woodruff (40.3) or Carlos Rodon (42.68).

3. Can I get more for my money later?

Worried about the first basemen available if you round Olson? Do not be. The first base is a deep position – like, absurdly deep.

You can wait about four rounds and catch Houston’s Jose Abreu (79.92). Nearly 60 picks after Olson was ripped from the boards, you can nab a youngster with tons of upside in Roto Rage favorite Vinnie Pasquantino (94.52) – who hit .346 with seven homers, 21 runs produced, 16 points, a 15-21 at-bat walk rate and .960 OPS in the Royals’ last 43 games of 2022.

Nathaniel Lowe of Texas (100.25), CJ Cron of Colorado (119.98) and Christian Walker of Arizona (121.22) – the darling of 2022 who broke more home runs (36) and still averaged slightly better (.242) and OPS (.804) than Olson – are solid mid-range options.

White Sox Andrew Vaughn (141.03) can be had for a good price, as can Cleveland’s presumptive cleanup hitter Josh Bell (166.62). Roto Rage also thinks Milwaukee’s Rowdy Tellez (170.32), who homered 35 and had 89 runs, should have a huge target on his back. Sure, he hit .219 in 2022, but his BABIP (.215), xBA (.252) and xSLG (.479) indicate a guy who was unlucky.

Boston’s Triston Casas (218.05) is an intriguing late-round option, as are Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson (260.13), Cincinnati’s Wil Myers (262.27), Jared Walsh of the Angels (291.27) and Harold Ramirez of Tampa Bay (350.9).

There will also be chances of snagging this year’s version of Walker, or a late-season hero such as Joey Meneses, off the waiver wire during the season.

Olson is undoubtedly a great, fantastic option, but Roto Rage thinks the price is steep, especially when you figure out what else is there.

First base

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tor
2. Freddie Freeman, LAD
3. Pete Alonso NYM
4. Paul Goldschmidt, StL
5. Matt Olson, athlete
6. Vinnie Pasquantino, cr
7. Nathaniel Lowe, Texas
8. José Abreu, Ho
9. Rhys Hoskins, Phi
10. CJ Cron, Col
11. Christian Walker, Ari
12. Ryan Mountcastle, Bal
13. Josh Bell, key
14. Rowdy Tellez, Mille
15. Anthony Rizo
16. Andrew Vaughn, SCF
17. Jake Cronenworth, SD
18. Ty France, Mer
19. Jose Miranda, Min.
20. Josh Naylor, key
21. Brandon Drury, AAL
22. Luis Arraez, Mia
23. Seth Brown, Chêne
24. Houses Triston, Bos
25. Miguel Vargas, DAL
26. Trey Mancini, ChC
27. Spencer Torkelson, that.
28. DJ LeMahieu, NYY
29. Wil Myers, Cin
30. Isaac Paredes, TB
31. Joey Meneses, Was
32. Dominic Smith, was
33. Brandon’s Belt, Tor
34. Wilmer Flores, SF
35. Jared Walsh, LA
36. Luke Voit, FA
37. Garrett Cooper, Mia
38. Jesus Aguilar, Oak
39. Joey Votto, Cin
40. Carlos Santana, Fosse
41. Harold Ramirez, TB
42. Ji-Man Choi, Pit
43. Eric Hosmer, ChC
44. LaMonte Wade Jr., SF
45. Bobby Dalbec, Bos

third base

1. Jose Ramirez, Key
2. Manny Machado, SD
3. Austin Riley, ATL
4. Bobby Witt Jr., KC
5. Raphael Devers, Bos
6. Nolan Arenado, StL
7. Gunnar Henderson, Bal
8. Alex Bregman, Hou
9. Max Muncy, LAD
10. Jose Miranda, Min.
11. Matt Chapman, Tor
12. Alec Bohm, Phi
13. Ryan McMahon, Col
14. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Fosse
15. Eugenio Suarez, Mer
16. Brandon Drury, AAL
17. Anthony Rendon, AAL
18. Justin Turner, Bos
19. Josh Jung, Tex
20. Josh Rojas, Ari
21. Yandy Diaz, TB
22. Luis Urias, Mille
23. Jeimer Candelario, Was
24. DJ LeMahieu, NYY
25. Yoan Moncada, SCF
26. Ha-Seong Kim, SD
27. Eduardo Escobar, NYM
28. Luis Rengifo, LAA
29. Isaac Paredes, TB
30. Jon Berti, Mia
31. Josh Donaldson
32. Brendan Donovan, StL
33. Wilmer Flores, SF
34. JD Davis, SF
35. Rodolfo Castro, Fosse
36. Gio Urshela, LAA
37. Brian Anderson, Mil
38. Jace Peterson, Oak
39. Spencer Steer, Cin
40. Jordan Walker, StL
41. Kyle Farmer, min.
42. Ramon Urias, Bal
43. Joey WendleMia
44. David Villar, SF
45. Brett Baty, N.Y.M

Team of the week name

Paredes by the dashboard light