The volatility in the exchange rate (peso/dollar) will be temporary and will last until the rest of April, as long as a crisis is not generated financial in States Joinedanalysts agreed.
James Salazar, deputy director of economic analysis at CIBancosaid that for the third two months of this year the exchange rate could return to a level of 18 pesos per green tickete, but it could reach the peak of 19.50 pesos per dollar.
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“If there is no other effect that impacts the financial markets, the exchange rate could return to 18 pesos by mid-year,” he said. Salazar.
The depreciation of the Mexican peso can be explained by the uncertainty that exists in the financial market after the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank in the United States, as well as the insolvency of Credit Suisse in Europe.
“Doubts of possible collapses of more banks in the United States and that a financial crisis is caused are generating turbulence in the exchange rate,” said the deputy director of CIBanco.
Doubts about the possible collapse of more banks in the United States and the triggering of a financial crisis are generating turbulence
James Salazar, analyst at Cibanco
Despite the uncertainty, The Mexican currency closed the session on Thursday with an appreciation of 1.33 percent at a level of 18.73 pesos per dollar. However, the level is 75 cents above its best record in almost five years, since on March 8 it reached 17.98 pesos per greenback.
Gabriella Siller, deputy director of economic analysis at Banco Base, the appreciation was the result of a drop in “risk aversion” in the mercado fglobal financialas the largest banks in the United States agreed to make deposits totaling $30 billion in First Republic Bank, in an effort to prevent the collapse of another bank and a financial crisis.
“JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will each contribute $5 billion, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will contribute $2.5 billion, and PNC, BNY Mellon, Truist, US Bancorp, and State Street banks. they will make deposits for a billion each,” said the economist.
For James Salazar, there are some factors that could drive the appreciation of the peso, which may be the decision of policy Federal Reserve Currency, In this case, he explained that a slight or no increase in the interest rate could boost the Mexican peso. However, he pointed out that a higher rise could play against the Mexican currency.
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“The expectation is that it will be coyuntural, that in a couple of weeks the uncertainty will dissipate. Yes there will be volatility but to a lesser extent. You have to be vigilant.”
