The NBA is experiencing a constant scoring euphoria, epitomized in the individual ecstasy of recent days: the 71 points of Donovan Mitchell, the 60s, 51s and 50s of Luka DoncicGiannis Antetokounmpo’s 55, Lauri Markkanen’s 49… Spectacular performances so frequent that, more and more, the value of any great individual exhibition is already relative.
Abundant waste of quality that is nothing more than the most striking photograph of the landscape that prevails, the most scoring NBA in history. According to data from the Basketball Reference portal, the current average offensive rating –points per 100 possessions–, is the highest ever recorded with 113.6, much higher than the 97.7 of the 73-74 season, the first for which there are records. On the occasion of this phenomenon, MD has taken the pulse by asking several coaches and at the same time recognized figures from the NBA to explain the causes.
“There are extremely talented players,” he said. Jordi Fernandez, second coach of the Kings, in his interview to MD. They are game trends. I think that, especially in the regular season and the start, what prevails most is talent and you see it on a day-to-day basis, there are extremely talented players to score and they rule changes that there has been in the league also favor shooters”, says the Badalona coach. “There are very good players and it is increasingly difficult to stop them”, he agrees Jose Manuel Calderonnow a special adviser to the Cavaliers.
“What is happening? Well, I don’t know… It must be that with the start of the year everyone is ‘on fire’, Uncle!”, the Raptors coach began by jokingly answering MD, Nick Nurse. “I think there are a lot of incredible players, I saw all those performances and they did fantastic,” added Nurse, NBA champion with the Canadian franchise in that block with Sergio Scariolo as assistant coach and Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka on the roster.
“These notes? It must be that with the new year the whole world is ‘on fire’, man”
“You have to give all the credit to the players but also to the coaches”, he pointed out for his part, to a question from another medium, another coach with the ring as Mike Budenholzer (with the Bucks in 2021). “The NBA has elite coaching staffs, very creative coaches, every night I’m blown away,” Budenholzer said.
But, although not so many have raised their voices against the current trend, there are also opponents. The one who leads the critical current is none other than the oldest coach in the league and the one who accumulates the most victories in all of history, Don Gregg Popovich, who at the time already released that the fashionable basketball, the one with the triples, “it’s not basketball.”
“I just hope the league ends with a 4 or 5 point shot, so we can turn it into a real circus. It won’t even be basketball, it’ll just be a lot of garbage”, he snapped, with his usual all acid, ‘Pops’, 73 years old, more than 25 in the Spurs and up to 5 rings in his hand. The opinions of the experts, as well as the evolution of the data, warn, above all, of five fundamental factors to understand why we are facing an NBA that is increasingly scoring.
1. The triple expansion
It is no secret that the arrival of the ‘triple era’ is the principle that has governed the trend. Shooting from long distance has gone from being almost non-existent with 0.8 shots made per crash in the first season for which there are records according to Basketball Reference (79-80), to 12.2 current.
According to a study published by the NBA last year, in the 10-11 academic year, triples barely represented 22% of the shots attempted to go on to account for 39% of the shots last season, while the mid-range shot has fallen from 31% to 13% in this period. In the current campaign, the proportion of triples already amounts to 41.6%. “Three shots have taken the game to another level,” the Blazers coach stressed to MD, Chauncey Billups, NBA champion in 2004 as a player with those Detroit Pistons, the ‘Bad Boys’ gang.
Popovich always speaks his mind
“It is much more difficult to defend these days with so many people pulling three”, he assures Gregg Popovich. “And the amount (of shots) is massive and they come very quickly, so people are going to score. It’s just like that. You can still work on defense at half court, but, in transition, when people extend the court the way that the players can do it now and from the distance from which they shoot, is obviously”, highlighted the Spurs coach in one of his appearances these days.
2. Increasingly talented and complete players
The evolution of the player himself has had a decisive weight. Basketball is heading towards a game in which the positions are increasingly diffused because more and more players –regardless of their size– can do more things. The phenomenon that is to come, Victor Wembanyama, it is the paradigm, but the current league is already full of great examples. The double MVP Nikola Jokic –a 2.11 center– distributes assists like a point guard. The Bucks prepare Giannis Antetokounmpo, another big center (2.13), as if he were also a point guard and the Greek is also capable of running the counterattack as the fastest “small”. Y Luka Doncica game director of 2.01, has become the most efficient player this course by posting Today, it’s almost as important for a center to have a shot from three as it is to rebound.
“These guys are really talented and have a lot of ways to score,” Billups notes. Talent works better and better and the weight of statistics, of course, has also done its thing, as José Manuel Calderón warns. “The more statistics, the more knowledge of the game, and that leads to, if a player is good at something, do it more. There are better players and it is increasingly difficult to stop them”, emphasizes the former Raptors and Cavaliers player among others.
The offensive versatility has been accompanied by an increasing defensive versatility but the attacks are the ones that prevail. The Toronto Raptors themselves, packed with players with size but at the same time athletic -Juancho Hernangómez between them-, are one of the great examples of this versatility on both sides of the track. As the most obvious example, the starting pivot -Pascal Siakam-, he can be defending the rival point guard and, on the next play, he can start the action. And any player who catches the rebound is the same one who already runs in transition.
3. Greater ‘spacing’ and rhythm
The expansion of the triple has had its affectation in other areas of the game. The fact that there are more and more shooters and with a higher accuracy makes it bigger the track as Popovich points out. Defenders have to stick closer to attacking players to cover the shot and that directly opens up the path of penetration – both for the handler and the shooter – and gives more space for other moves like cutting.
The evolution of basketball towards a faster game has also had a major impact. The 92 possessions on average that were played per match in the 09-10 season have gone to 99 current. And the more possessions, the more points.
The progression that certain specific actions of the game have followed since 2015 -the first year for which the NBA has records- speaks very clearly of how vertical and accelerated the game has been. Teams shoot more than penetrations -from the 33.7 then to the current 46-, there are more possessions in transition -from 14.3 to 18.6-, and actions that tend to slow down the game more, such as post plays they have fallen by almost half in these less than 10 years, from 8.14 to 4.7. The number of possessions with rinses remains stable, from 7.7 in the 15-16 academic year to the current 7.6.
4. The rule change
Apart from the famous rule of 3 seconds, The NBA has been modifying others that favor the attack, such as the new sanction this course for fouls that stop counterattacks, which are punished with a free kick and possession. A change that has meant that the number of points per possession on fast break goes up from 1.12 to 1.16, which results in an average of 4 more points per 100 possessions.
Chauncey Billups, coach of the Blazers
“Is there a way to stop this offensive trend? No, it’s too hard,” says Billups. “Of course, you are going to do your best, but the rules are made for attack. You can’t play physically, and to stop the players you find yourself in foul trouble, you have to give in” says the Blazes coach. “The rule changes that have taken place in the league also favor shooters,” Calderón agrees.
Billups also refers to some free kicks that also have an impact, since the 78% The current average is the highest in history.
5. ‘There is no longer a small team’
The well-worn easy cliché, also known as ‘anyone can beat anyone’, is more true than ever and is another factor that explains the barbaric recent individual exhibitions, since almost all of them were about even matches. Without going any further, the games of Doncic’s 51 and 50 points came in very tight Dallas wins against teams from the ‘lower class’ of the NBA such as the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets.
Furthermore, there have been surprises in recent weeks, with the two victories for Orlando Magic against the Boston Celtics, the beating of the Oklahoma City Thunder without their star, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, against also some Celtics who had Tatum and Brown (150-117), the humiliation of the Charlotte Hornets inflicted on the Bucks (109-138) or the victory of the Pistons at the home of the Warriors (119-122).
“It can be said that there is more and more talent and also in role players, but, at the same time, anyone can beat you, there are no longer easy teams in the NBA,” warns José Manuel Calderón. Between quality, preparation and rules, the offensive ecstasy of the NBA seems like an endless phenomenon that grows out of control. Where is the limit?
read also
