Happy Holidays Tireheads! We’ve got a celebration of NBA goodness scheduled for Christmas Day with five games scheduled between 12:00pm ET and 10:30pm. So to mark this special occasion, we’ve decided that in addition to our weekly column featuring the best NFL bets, we’ll also host an NBA edition! Whether you prefer bet spreads, money lines or over/under we have you covered. Talk about a holiday miracle!
Let’s get straight to our favorite bets from a phenomenal basket-fest.
All spreads, moneylines and over/under are from BetMGM
The NBA’s best Christmas bets: Against the spread
Milwaukee Bucks (+4,5) bei Boston Celtics
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks won seven of their 10 preview games and 10 of their previous 14 games before Friday, ultimately overtaking Boston for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics, meanwhile, have slipped after a blistering 21-5 start to the season under interim head coach Joe Mazzulla. Boston had lost five of its last six games prior to Friday and hit a low point for the season when it lost two straight to the Magic and one to the Pacers, two teams with a combined win rate of .430).
Robert Williams III’s recent return from a knee injury in late summer was originally intended to bolster a Celtics defense that was already among the best in the league. Time Lord has yet to shake the rust from his long absence, however, and Boston’s D-ranks last in December.
Celtics top scorer and MVP candidate Jayson Tatum recently told the Boston media that he and his team “must learn to win again”. However, this appears to be more than just a collective mindset issue. The Celtics lack open shots and look half-assed on both ends of the floor, and they also let their opponents dictate the pace of games while crushing in transition and clutch situations.
Whatever the cause of these burglary-related problems, Boston likely has Milwaukee licking its chops. The Bucks have one of the best defenses in the NBA, ranking third in D rating and fourth in points per game. They also executed the quick break with efficiency, and they’re scoring nearly seven more points in the paint per game than Boston.
That last wrinkle could make all the difference in this game. Even with Williams back in the lineup reuniting Boston’s NBA Finals starting with Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford and Marcus Smart, this roster hasn’t played as big as it did in its run for the title. Milwaukee’s massive forecourt — perennial DPOY contender Giannis, current block leader Brook Lopez and the ever-annoying Bobby Portis — could give the Cs even more fits this season than Cleveland’s twin towers.
Prognose: Bucks 112, Celtics 109. We’re only betting the Bucks’ spread for insurance reasons, but all indications are that Milwaukee is putting a lump of coal in Boston’s green stockings for the second straight year.
Other NBA Christmas Spreads We Like: Grizzlies (-4.5) at Warriors, Lakers (+7.5) at Mavericks
Best NBA Christmas Bets: Moneyline
Phoenix Suns (+120) bei Denver Nuggets
Every Christmas needs at least one good surprise. We bet the big fuss this year will come from Devin Booker and the Suns burning Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in Denver.
We understand the risks of backing a Phoenix team that’s 5-9 on the road against a Denver team that was 10-4 at home en route to Friday night’s game against Portland. We also understand that back-to-back MVP Jokic is almost impossible to tame and has a better supporting cast around him than he may have ever had. But the Suns had won three of their last four before Friday, with the only loss coming with Booker in street clothes, and they were playing big with DeAndre Ayton, who owns the suit.
The Nuggets have run one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA this season, with the third-best offensive rating and seventh-best points per game. However, their defense has also allowed sixth-best points per game and third-best field goal percentage. Denver also allows opponents to average the most offensive rebounds and second most boards overall, so we’re expecting Ayton and backup big Bismack Biyombo (let’s say that five times fast) to get their way deep.
If Chris Paul fluidly runs Monty Williams’ offense, the Suns avoid nasty troubles, and Booker, Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet shoot as well as they have of late, Mike Malone’s Nugs will struggle to avoid a rare home loss.
Prediction: suns 111, nuggets 107. A not-so-celebratory sentiment for the hometown team and their fans, as Booker and Ayton play like the All-Stars we expect to be in two months time.
Other Christmas money lines we like: 76ers (-140) bei Knicks, Bucks (+150) bei Celtics
Best NBA Christmas Bets: Over/Under
76s at Knicks: OVER 219.5 (-110)
This is a battle between two of the hottest teams in the NBA, with the Knicks winning eight of their last 10 games and Philly seven of their last 10 before Friday. We honestly don’t know how we’d bet this versus the spread, with the home court Knicks getting 2.5 points and the Sixers being narrow -140 money line favorites. What we do know is that both sides have been scoring effortlessly lately and we expect that trend to continue.
In Philly’s seven games leading up to Friday night, the Doc Rivers squad had averaged 120.4 points per game. During the same period, Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks have averaged 116.9 points, which is exactly the same as the season average at home (116.4). On the defensive side, we’ve seen something from New York that’s rare for a Thibs roster: New York is among the top six rosters allowing for the most points and the best field goal percentage in the NBA.
This is great news for NBA scoring leader Joel Embiid and co. After a slow start, JoJo has been cooking through this strong stretch. James Harden has shot well and created seamlessly for others since returning from his foot injury, and Tobias Harris has played some of his best basketball games this season as a sixer. Even side plays like Shake Milton, Georges Niang and (on a good day) even Montrezl Harrell have stepped up.
As for the Knicks, everything seems to be going well for Thibs’ offense. Widely criticized by pundits as an inflated contract, the signing of Jalen Brunson could turn out to be one of the best deals of the 2022 off-season. He looks like an all-star contender at best and a most improved player contender at worst, and he’s got the scorers around him like Julius Randle and RJ Barrett playing inspired basketball. Don’t expect a defensive fight from this Christmas prelude.
Prognosis: 76ers 118, Knicks 114. The Sixers are proving too much for the Knicks, whose defensive woes continue.
Other Christmas bucks we like: Lakers-Mavericks OVER 225.5 (-110), Bucks-Celtics UNDER 223.5 (-110), Suns-Nuggets UNDER 230.5 (-110)
