“The predictions were made based on more than a million simulations. We poured the result into a knockout phase that looks like this,” Gracenote says.
The “Elo system” used for this, which is known for ranking the best chess players in the world, saw the light of day in 2002 and is fine-tuned daily with new data.
For example, teams are given a value based on results they achieved in important – eg World and European Championships – competitions and less important matches such as friendly international matches. The former weigh more, the value of the opponent and home or away matches also determine the number of points a country receives if it wins.
The renowned statistics agency estimates the chance that Belgium will reach the final against Brazil is high. Against Germany, the Red Devils have a 57% chance to push through, against Portugal and France it gives us an advantage of 54%. Can we dream of a satisfying revenge for Russia 2018?
Certainly not from a world title. After Brazil sends Spain and arch-rival Argentina home, it is also the top favorite against the Belgians: in 64% of the cases the Divine Canaries beat our compatriots.
Don’t worry, because the table can still change. “When the World Cup is in full swing, new simulations will be made every day based on the latest information,” Gracenote assures.
The success rate of the Red Devils can therefore still rise considerably. Do De Bruyne and co give the statisticians a blow?
