In the game of probabilities, PSG can fear the worst. The only French club still in contention after the elimination of Olympique de Marseille from the group stage, the Parisian club will meet this Monday, November 7, around noon, its opponent for the knockout stages of the Champions League (14 -15 and 21-22 February 2023). Despite their success on the lawn of Juventus Turin (1-2) last Wednesday, the Parisians only finished 2nd in their group behind Benfica Lisbon. As a result, Kylian Mbappé and his partners will come across a big client.
On paper, there are 7 possible opponents: Bayern Munich, Naples, Manchester City, Tottenham, Chelsea, Porto and Real Madrid, defending champion, who had released them at this stage of the competition in March. The regulations in force prevent two clubs from the same country from meeting in the round of 16, just as two teams from the same group cannot face each other. Paris will therefore not be able to inherit Benfica while Manchester City, Tottenham and Chelsea will not be able to draw Liverpool. This rule of the game necessarily directs the probabilities during the draw.
According to Julien Guyon, professor of applied mathematics at the École des Ponts ParisTech, the most likely opponent for PSG is Bayern Munich (19.46%), ahead of Naples (17.11%). The English clubs of Chelsea (13.9%), Tottenham and Manchester City (13.88%), as well as Real Madrid (10.98%) and FC Porto (10.79%) are themselves a little further behind in the ranking of probabilities. The expert adds that the most likely poster for the round of 16 is Liverpool – Bayern Munich (37.12%).
Led this season by Christophe Galtier, PSG is once again one of the most anticipated teams this season in the Champions League. The capital club will want to do better than last season (round of 16), after having chained a lost final in 2020 and a half against Manchester City in 2021.
