Wimbledon: For Rafael Nadal, the worst may already be over

17 – 0, ongoing series. Here is the record (victories – defeats) in Majors of Rafael Nadal in 2022. Like his great rival Novak Djokovic last year, the Majorcan is more than ever in the race for a feat that has not been achieved since. Rod Laver in 1969: the calendar Grand Slam. For the first time in his career at 36, and while his body continues to play tricks on him, he checked off the first two stages in Melbourne then in Paris, and for the third in London, he went halfway. , or almost. And paradoxically perhaps not the least complicated.

Don’t see that as a provocation. It is obvious that the more the rounds pass in the tournaments (in Challenger as in Grand Slam), the more the level and the difficulty increase. This is true for Rafael Nadal as for all the players on the circuit. But the Majorcan has a special relationship with grass, a paradoxical relationship between a deep love – he dreamed of winning Wimbledon more than anything when he was young – and a certain apprehension.

A dreaded lawn… when it is not worn out

Seven games dropped (6-1, 6-2, 6-4) for an almost perfect performance and with an expeditious character which seems to validate the thesis of a rise in power. “It was my best game, without a doubt, since the start of the tournament. I did things much better than in the previous rounds and I’m very happy about that. I improved in a lot of areas: the determination, the way I managed to be more aggressive by coming to the net a lot of times. It’s a good win against a great player“, has also detailed the Mallorcan.

Kyrgios excepted, his board has (significantly) cleared

On crutches at the exit of Roland-Garros before a new treatment to soothe his nagging pains in the left foot, Nadal now flies on the court. He also asked that the issue not be raised at a press conference, as the subject no longer seems to worry him. And the permanent miracle of this 2022 season for him therefore continues with a table which has also opened up considerably since the draw. Take a look at what the Majorcan could logically expect at the start of the fortnight:

• Theoretical round of 16 against Marin Cilic, finalist in 2017
• Theoretical quarter-final against Félix Auger-Aliassime, quarter-finalist last year and who had seriously hooked him at Roland-Garros
• Theoretical semi-final against Matteo Berrettini, finalist last year and winner of 20 of his last 21 matches on grass
• Theoretical final against Novak Djokovic, three-time defending champion and six-time champion

In this projection, there is only one stage still potentially relevant: the last. And if it does take place, then it will perhaps be the most difficult challenge to overcome. But in the meantime, the road to a sixth Wimbledon final is looking more and more like a highway. As if the gods of tennis had intervened to clear Nadal’s horizon, Berrettini and Cilic forfeited because of the Covid, and Auger-Aliassime was surprised in the first round.

Among the candidates still in the running to bring him down, only one, Nick Kyrgios, reached a quarter-final at the All England Club in 2014. Alex de Minaur, Brandon Nakashima, Jason Kubler, Taylor Fritz and Botic van de Zandschulp, the next opponent of Nadal (whom the latter has already beaten at Roland-Garros), even discover the second week on the London lawn, Cristian Garin having been in the 8th finals last year. In terms of experience, the ascendancy of the Mallorcan is therefore immense.

More than 50% of finals when he plays the second week

Certainly, the prospect of potentially finding a confident Nick Kyrgios in the semi-finals can represent a threat. The Australian had also blocked his way at Wimbledon eight years ago in the round of 16. But the further the tournament progresses, the more the playing conditions suit the Mallorcan. Already worn prematurely by the training sessions authorized on it for the first time before the start of the competition, the grass of the Center Court is more and more earthy at the level of the end line. Defensive runs and support recovery are facilitated and the balls bounce more, making Nadal’s topspin more effective.

Nadal can then express the fullness of his tennis. And the figures say nothing else: out of his 9 previous appearances in the second week, the Majorcan reached the last four seven times, including five finals. Statistically, when he found himself in this situation, he scrapped last Sunday more than half the time. With the confidence that animates him at the moment, we can also estimate that his chances are even greater. But all these considerations, however objective they may be, should not turn the head of the principal concerned.