What happens to River? The theorem of 49 shots and zero goals: where is the problem with Marcelo Gallardo’s team

Can a shot from outside the area be a clear scoring chance? Of course yes. It even ends up being the most recurrent strategic variable of leading teams against rivals who usually defend themselves with two lines of four and stops near their goalkeeper. In the absence of spaces to attack, medium distance attempts may well work.

Also, if there was a team that made a cult of goals with shots from outside the area, especially in 2022, it was River. Until Enzo Fernández he had become a specialist for the goals scored against Platense, Fortaleza (for the Copa Libertadores) and even for the other attempts that hit the crossbar or the sticks. But Barco and De la Cruz also scored in that way against Racing; Pochettino against Sarmiento (and Palavecino to Central, at the end of 2021); those of Julián Álvarez to Alianza Lima, to give a few examples. The best of all, for the control with the left foot and the definition with the right, the one that Enzo Fernández did to Tigrein the Monumental, to the upper right corner of Marinelli.

The problem that River is having today, the only team that could not convert in the three matches of the Professional League (draws against Defense and Justice and Atlético Tucumán 0-0 and the defeat against Colón 0-1), is in the making. On top of the lack of efficiency, Gallardo’s team lacks clarity to solve in the final meters, it has more difficulties for the penultimate pass than the last touch to the net.

If the presentation of River in Santa Fe is taken as a reference, the clearest chance, inside the area and in front of the goalkeeper almost without opposition, was the one that Julián Álvarez had with his left foot, in the penalty spot and that he finished off wide against Burian after the Barco’s center back at the end of the first stage. But later his game had more rush and acceleration than a filtered pass for a teammate to come from behind “attacking space” or with triangulations.

River is the second team with the most shots in the Tournament with 49 (59 Workshops, first) and the second that most finishes from outside with 23 (26, Patronato), according to data from choose. River accumulates 3.6 expected goals, which are calculated from the probability of the shots ending in a goal, in that statistic it is thirteenth (first Colón, with 6.03 expected goals; second Barracas, with 4.9). That is to say that, although he finishes off a lot, he does it from positions and situations of low probability.. The definition of “chances created” of Opta refers to the passes for auction, in that section River has 35 and is third, behind Talleres 46 and Boca 40.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbnjE__L-rw

Faced with the low level of Braian Romero and the injury of Matías Suárez, Gallardo decided some time ago to play with Julián Álvarez of 9 and a scheme 4-1-4-1 with attacking midfielders who have a good pass, imbalance and goal. James Simon, Enzo Fernandez, Nicholas De la Cruz and Ezequiel Ship ahead of Bruno Zuculini (replacing Enzo Pérez against Colón). The four mentioned have the technical and tactical capacity to add movements that generate cracks in the rival defenses. All four have the ability to convert with a shot from outside the box.

The four who were in the bank (two of them entered), also: Augustin Palavecino, Thomas Pochettino, Jose Paradela and Cristian Ferreira (who runs from behind in consideration but also has a great mid-range punch). Not to mention Juanfer Quintero, who is recovering from an injury. The most important goal in the history of River was made in Madrid, against Boca, and from outside the area. While Gallardo seeks to reinforce the squad with forwards, he can be offensive and have a goal share with the sum of midfielders with arrival and imbalance. The issue is when a resource is abused or a resource becomes the only avenue of attack.

This is being seen today in River. There is a rush, nervousness to win and find the goal. It’s as if the team was out of steam, as if the players were looking to celebrate before scoring a goal. The offensive vocation is maintained, Gallardo’s DNA too. It is not the first time that the coach has opted for this tactical structure and these characteristics of footballers, what is missing is “connection”, a greater search for partnerships between them and in relation to the laterals. Because not always the best alternative to finish the play is a shot from outside the area, not always if Barco receives in front of the goal and in the crescent of the area he must finish it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t605maOL2tc

In the current competition, the footballers who tried the most with shots from outside the area are Julián Álvarez and Enzo Fernández, with 6 eachfollowed by Barco, De la Cruz and Simón, with 2 each.

When you raise your head and seek to finish all the plays with shots from the outside, you run the risk of minimizing the best resources that each player has. In the case of Barco, the gambetas for one on one (he is one of the Argentine soccer players who receives the most infractions); with De la Cruz, the short game for a wall and the split inside to reach the small area, to achieve the short path to the goal; with Palavecino, the attack into space coming from behind to receive a cross from the sides, like that goal he scored against Racing at the Monumental, or a shot from the front, like the shortcut of Agustín Rossi before the header of the mouthpiece in the last superclásico against Boca, in Núñez; Simón also seems to associate better from a short game and a triangulation and then come from behind to step on the area and unbalance. Enzo Fernández many times unconsciously “rested” with a great goal or a very good shot from outside, but then he did not have the continuity in ball touches that River needed from him during the 90 minutes. And the filtered pass from Enzo Fernández to Julián Álvarez is one of the tools that can offer greater clarity.

“Sometimes the emotional state, when we can’t solve our good moments with a goal, generates a certain state of mind. We had good passages in the game, it was vibrant, for a long time we were in control, it was difficult for us to make good decisions. We still need to confirm the good moments with goals, so I can’t say that the team played poorly, at times they played well, had dynamics and scoring situations. The same thing happened to us again, we had no aim,” said Gallardo after the defeat with Colón.

The lack of goal (from the reinforcements and on the pitch) creates a rush for River that confuses him. Today when River stands in front of the mirror he sees himself with a desperate attack and throwing excessive crosses or finishing from outside the area, but without so much clarity in the short game. Especially in recent years, the main potential of River de Gallardo was the elaboration of the interior game (the interior attacks). That was generated with the opening of the wings but not as play finishers, they were not the ones who overflowed and threw the centers (although they also did it, of course) but the priority was that they function as ‘supports’ to widen the field and go back inside so that the midfielders are the assistants and definers.

River’s focus, while waiting to add firepower with forwards, should be adjusted first to rework better. With more pause and without much haste. The “Dress me slowly, I’m in a hurry” of Napoleon could be applied to the current context of Gallardo’s team.