Ex-spies and Ukrainian officials have fueled speculation about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s poor health.
However, according to US intelligence and military experts, there is no clear or credible evidence that Putin is doing badly.
The rumors could be a sign of wishful thinking that Putin’s death would somehow end the brutal war, according to an expert.
In recent weeks there have been repeated rumors that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s health is not good and that he is losing control.
The strongman and former KGB agent, who is approaching 70, spent years trying to cultivate a macho image – riding shirtless on a horse, playing hockey and showing off his judo skills. During his roughly two decades in power, Putin was seen as a calculated, unemotional leader. But since he started the war in Ukraine at the end of February, the mind of the bare-chested rider seems to have changed. His cheeks are swollen, he is fidgety, and his speech is full of venom.
The war in Ukraine is going so badly for the Russian military that many are wondering why Putin miscalculated so badly. Some suspect that he is suffering from mental deterioration. Others have rumored that he is seriously ill and have drawn far-reaching conclusions from tiny aspects of his behavior. Even the shaking of the Russian leader’s foot was enough to spark a wave of speculation about his health.
But three US intelligence and military experts who spoke to Business Insider say they don’t give much weight to the ongoing speculation that the Russian leader is in physical decline — it’s a theory that hasn’t been corroborated by doctors or medical experts.
Jeffrey Edmonds, a former director for Russia at the National Security Council and a former CIA military analyst, told Business Insider he sees “nothing really credible” to support the notion that Putin is doing badly.
“What I and others have seen is a definite change in his demeanor,” Edmonds said, adding that Putin “is usually the voice of calm in Russia but has become more emotional and angry in public.” This suggests that Putin “isn’t comfortable with something.”
Putin is leading a war that has killed an estimated 15,000 Russian soldiers in a matter of months, possibly many more. A large number of Russian generals were killed. The streets of Ukraine have practically become cemeteries for Russian tanks. The Russian military, which was widely expected to roll over Ukrainian forces within days, failed to take Kyiv.
Meanwhile, the US and its allies have isolated Moscow both economically and politically, imposing a series of unprecedented sanctions on Russia that have led to inflation and supply shortages reminiscent of the Soviet era. The head of Russia’s central bank warned this week that the coming months will be “difficult for both businesses and citizens.”
But Putin shows no sign of giving up. He has been obsessed with Ukraine for years – he sees it essentially as a territory that belongs to Moscow. Leading Russia observers say Putin will never give up his goal of subjugating Ukrainians. As long as he sits in the Kremlin and has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, Ukraine faces an existential threat.
Because Putin wields so much power, his health is an understandable issue for the public and intelligence agencies. Nevertheless, this is an issue about which even the US espionage authorities are groping in the dark, according to the experts.
Speculation about Putin’s health could be wishful thinking
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The speculation about Putin’s health comes from a number of questionable sources. The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, claimed in mid-May in an interview told Sky News with no evidence that Putin had cancer and stated that a coup to oust the Russian leader was underway.
Meanwhile, former British spy Christopher Steele recently explained to Sky News‘, Putin was ‘increasingly ill’ and his leadership was in jeopardy. Steele — known for compiling the discredited dossier of salacious, unverified claims about Donald Trump’s Russia ties — cited unnamed “sources in Russia and elsewhere.”
Washington lawmakers such as Florida Senator Marco Rubio, the leading Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, have also spoken out. “I wish I could say more, but at the moment I can say that it is quite obvious to many that there is something wrong with Putin,” said Rubio in a tweet in late February
The fact that many of the recent claims about Putin’s health have come from the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, who may be trying to undermine the Russian leader’s authority and sow discord in the halls of the Kremlin, gives reason to question their veracity.
Reporting of the Russian magazine Project has found evidence that Putin has chronic back problems, that he has repeatedly disappeared from public view for several days, and that he was at times with a large medical team. But none of this behavior is particularly unusual for a 69-year-old autocrat who wants to remain in power for life.
The rampant speculation could also be a sign of wishful thinking that Putin’s death would somehow end the brutal war, according to Kevin Ryan, a retired US brigadier general and former defense attaché in Russia. Ryan said he has seen “no evidence” that Putin is near death or suffering from anything that debilitates him – also stressing that even his death would not necessarily result in a ceasefire or an end to the war in Ukraine . “His death could change the course of events, but the ruling circle that supported him will still be there.”
“These are all just indications”
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Much of the theories surrounding Putin’s health stem from discussions about his physical appearance and public behavior.
British tabloids and various commentators have suggested that Putin has Parkinson’s disease, as the Russian leader taps and twitches his foot during meetings.
Others see Putin’s face, which appears more bloated than usual, as a possible indication that his health is in poor shape. However, these are not in themselves signs of a serious health condition.
“I can find no evidence of Parkinsonism in Putin,” so Ray Chadhuri, a neurologist at the University of London, told DW in April after seeing a video of Putin with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told Business Insider he was amazed at recent pictures of Putin showing him with a swollen face. It raises the question of whether the Russian leader may be receiving any form of treatment, which is causing the swelling. However, Clapper stressed that this was only circumstantial and he doubted that US intelligence would know for sure whether he was ill or not
“This type of information has traditionally been very difficult to come by,” Clapper said.
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