The second-placed Boston Celtics and third-placed Milwaukee Bucks meet in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston and Milwaukee beat the Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls, respectively, in the first round.
how they got here
Boston Celtics (51-31)
The Celtics had one of the biggest season changes in recent memory, going from a marginal tournament team in 2021 to the best team in basketball in 2022 statistically. Their defense is impeccable under first-year coach Ime Udoka, and Jayson Tatum has emerged as a true MVP contender at the helm of a full-length, versatile eight-man rotation at both ends of the court.
It was all seen in their first-round series against the Nets. Swarming over both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, Boston challenged Brooklyn’s somber supporting cast to make enough games to stay competitive, and even then the Celtics didn’t make it easy for anyone. The result was a first round that had all viewers wondering if Tatum had passed Durant, 32, in the NBA pecking order.
The Celtics rehired Robert Williams III three weeks after his meniscus surgery, added a roster to one of their best defensive figures, and then gave him another week off. Their starting line-up of Tatum, Williams, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Al Horford has lost once (with just one possession) since January. No other team goes into Round 2 with the continuity and momentum Boston has.
Milwaukee-Bucks (51-31)
The Bucks put their regular-season title defense on cruise control, hitting the gas when needed and eventually hitting the brakes to avoid a first-round streak against the Nets. The approach allowed Grayson Allen to get comfortable with the system and Brook Lopez to take every precaution with his back injury. That’s the luxury of having Giannis Antetokounmpo, the best basketball player.
They expectedly handled the Bulls in the first round, lost just once in DeMar DeRozan’s inevitable 41-point loss, and still posted a 94.4 defensive rating — at least 10 points per 100 better possessions than the rest of the playoff field. Antetokounmpo averaged 29 points on 57% shooting, living on the sidelines and getting enough defensive attention for his teammates to shoot 38% on 37 3-point attempts per game.
Apart from Khris Middleton’s MCL sprain, which should prevent the three-time All-Star for the second round, the plan worked perfectly. George Hill’s status also remains uncertain as he struggles with abdominal and back problems that have sidelined him since April 8. Milwaukee’s midseason trade of Donte DiVinencenzo for Serge Ibaka, who failed to play a significant role against the Bulls, plays a big part in their absence.
face to face
The Celtics and Bucks drew 2-2 in their regular season series.
None of their games offered a glimpse of what this series would look like. Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Jrue Holiday missed their first meeting on November 12 as the Celtics won in overtime, and three of their four games came when Boston still conceded big minutes to Dennis Schroder, Josh Richardson and Romeo. Langford, among others, who are not on the team or rotation. Likewise, Tatum, Williams and Horford were all on the bench for their fourth and final meeting on April 7th.
close queues
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have options off their starting lineup of Tatum, Brown, Smart, Horford and Williams beating their opponents by a whopping 24.6 points per 100 possessions in 443 minutes of the regular season. It will all come down to whether Williams and Horford, given their respective health and age, can help defend Antetokounmpo and recover from perimeter gunners. Grant Williams can spell both up front and Derrick White is an alternative in the small lineups. Any combination can be devastating on both sides.
Milwaukee-Dollar
Middleton’s absence means Antetokounmpo and Holiday are the only Bucks guaranteed to finish games. Lopez and Pat Connaughton were the mainstays of Milwaukee’s critical schedules last season, and they still have coach Mike Budenholzer’s confidence until both proved ineffective against Long and Boston Athletics.
PJ Tucker was the tie that tied the final lineup last year and he’s gone. Bobby Portis has size and started alongside Lopez, but together they could struggle to continue Boston’s ball movement. Allen and Wesley Matthews are options in smaller suits that come with their own limitations. The Bucks will spend much of the series searching for the most capable quintet and piloting what suits them best each night.
game to watch
The Celtics will use the same defensive wall against Antetokounmpo that held up against him in the 2018 playoffs and collapsed in 2019. Horford would sprint to the free-throw line as a second line of defense while Tatum, Brown, Smart and co ran him through the middle. Robert Williams provides a third layer of protection that covers the corner for added rim protection. Nothing will be easy for Antetokounmpo.
How much help Boston’s leading defenders have in showing the two-time MVP will determine how open his teammates are — and likely determine the series. Grant Williams defended Antetokounmpo more than anyone in the Celtics during the regular season with some success, just as he did against Durant in the first round. Tatum has shouldered the responsibility of defending Durant and may see it as his calling to stop another Superstar if he wants to establish himself as an alpha. Most likely, Antetokounmpo will see a variety of defenders on the ball, including Brown and Smart, all capable of putting up considerable resistance.
If one of the Celtics or a changing lineup can stop Antetokounmpo from getting two or three defenders in play, the Bucks’ title defense will come to an end in the second round of this playoff.
Boston Celtics (-185)
Milwaukee-Dollar (+150)
forecast
Celtics in sechs.
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Ben Rohrbach is a senior editor at Yahoo Sports. Do you have any advice? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach
