Picks: 49ers to win at Dallas; Tom Brady will advance and the Patriots will be eliminated

Unlike last year, the Playoffs will be played with the public in stadiums and that should be a factor to consider.

In 2020, four out of six visitors won at Super Wild Card Weekend. Will history repeat itself in 2021? At least the oddsmakers don’t believe it, as all the locals are favorites.

They probably don’t expect a lot of upsets because four of the five quarterbacks making their Playoffs (Derek Carr, Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts y Kyler Murray) They will do it as visitors. The other is Joe Burrow, de Cincinnati.

There are three aspects of the game that are magnified when it comes to the postseason: the defense, the running game, and the turnovers.

Of the classified teams, Buffalo comes in with the best defense; Philadelphia is the best rushing attack and Dallas has forced more ball exchanges.

Las Vegas at Cincinnati (-5.5)

Playoff Series: Raiders 2-0

The Raiders defense will face the best version of Joe Burrow. In the most recent four, the young Bengals quarterback has completed 74.7 percent of his passes, averaging 369 passing yards, with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

In wins over the Browns, Broncos and Colts, Las Vegas allowed 147 passing yards or less, but Justin Herbert had 355 on the final Sunday Night of the season.

Pick: Maxx Crosby is key to the Raiders’ aspirations, because if Burrow has time to throw the ball, there isn’t a cornerback on the Las Vegas perimeter who can handle rookie Ja’Marr Chase the entire game. Bengals 28-24 Raiders

New England and Buffalo (-3.5)

Playoff Series: Patriots 1-0

In Week 13, New England won 14-10 at Buffalo, and in Week 16 the Bills defeated the Patriots 31-21 at Foxborough.

At the end of December, Josh Allen destroyed Bill Belichick’s defense with 314 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Bills need more of the same if they are to stay alive in the Divisional Round.

Defenses in Buffalo (17.0) and New England (17.8) ranked first and second, respectively, in points allowed per game. Bills and Patriots also finished with 30 turnovers, tied for third in the NFL.

Pick: Buffalo must do a better job of stopping New England’s running attack, which in Week 13 added 222 yards (111 from Damien Harris) and force the rookie Mac Jones to pitch more than Belichick and Josh McDaniels want. Because Jones, like it or not, is the Patriots’ weak point. Buffalo 23-17 New England

Philadelphia en Tampa Bay (-8.5)

Playoff Series: 2-2

Pese a perder al wide receiver Chris Godwin (anterior cruciate ligament) Four weeks ago, Tom Brady closed the regular season with six touchdown passes in the last two games on the schedule.

Mike Evans (hamstring) is not 100%, but the good news for Tom Brady and the rest of the Bucs offense is the return of Leonard Fournette, a key piece in last season’s Playoffs.

The coach Bruce Arians He also awaits the return of the linebackers Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, super necessary when facing a quarterback with the mobility and running ability of Jalen Hurts.

Pick: And Miles Sanders (hand) does not play, it will be difficult for Philadelphia to establish the running attack and the Tampa Bay defense will focus on Hurts; Fournette’s return will help Brady, and that’s bad news for coach Nick Sirianni’s team. Bucs 28-17 Eagles

San Francisco at Dallas (-3)

Playoff Series: Cowboys 5-2

Dallas finished 6-0 against the NFC East Division and 6-5 against the rest of the NFL. That includes going 1-4 against teams with 10 or more wins.

In those five games against rivals who are in the Playoffs today, Dak Prescott threw 12 touchdown passes and suffered four interceptions. The problem for Dallas has been its inability to run the ball, averaging 62.5 yards in losses to Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Las Vegas and Arizona.

The Cowboys defense must find a way to contain Deebo Samuel, the most dynamic player in the 49ers attack, with 8 touchdowns on the ground and another 6 on reception. Micah Parsons y Trevon Diggs they will be key to completing that mission.

Pick: No one doubts the capabilities of Prescott and the rest of Dallas’ offense, but they have been left to duty to the contenders. San Francisco is a bad match not just for Dallas, but for any rival in the NFC. 49ers 28-24 Cowboys

Pittsburgh en Kansas City (-12.5)

Playoff Series: 1-1

On December 26, the Chiefs didn’t have to step on the gas to beat Pittsburgh 36-10 at home.

It’s true that the Steelers defense missed their best man, T.J. Watt, who practically did not play (a single tackle) due to a rib injury.

Also is true that Patrick mahomes threw three touchdown passes despite the absence of his most reliable target, the tight end Travis Kelce, who missed that game after testing positive for Covid.

Watt and Kelce will play Saturday night at Arrowhead.

Pick: The Kansas City defense has accepted 364 or more yards in four of the most recent six, so Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense are likely to be able to put more than 10 points on the scoreboard. Chiefs 31-21 Steelers

Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-4)

Playoff Series: Rams 1-0

These two divisional rivals split wins in the regular season and both lost at home.

The Rams want to be the second team in history to play a Super Bowl at home, but to do so Matthew Stafford he has to put a stop to interceptions (seven in the last three games of the regular season).

Pick: The Cardinals are underdogs, but if they can run the ball against a defense that struggled all season in that area, Kyler Murray and company could walk out of SoFi Stadium with one of the Super Wild Card Weekend upsets. Arizona 29-26 Los Angeles