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Every penalty shootout puts your nerves to the test. They are, however, the illustration of a problem of probabilities. Immerse yourself in the wonderful world of game theory.
Haris Seferovic missed his face-to-face with Peacock-Farrell last September in Belfast.
AFP
If only a shot on goal was unmissable. Swiss fans got to see it with Seferovic in Belfast, last September, but also throughout the extent of Euro 2020: not easy to put the ball to the bottom. There are players known to be good at the drill. A Ronaldo, a Zidane or a Bruno Fernandes. The economists, them, are through game theory. The principle is simple.
The keeper has two solutions: dive to the righte or left. The shooter must also choose to shoot between right and left. In the end, if the player puts the ball in the net, it is logically that the goalkeeper did not stop it. The probability of stopping the ball is the opposite of the probability of a successful shot, this is called a zero-sum game. As for the shots to the centers, they do not contradict the model. They appear in too few to be counted in the same way as the others. However, this is likely to change since the environment which represented less than 5% of shots 20 years ago years now account for nearly 10% of shots on goal.
Where are the right-handed people shooting?
Soccerment Research.
Expectations vs. reality
The prediction is shown to be close to reality. Researcher Palacios-Huerta, who largely contributed to this theory, compared the data with observations made in the Spanish, Italian and English championships. 1417 penalties are listed in the database. «This is the advantage of these studies: there are a lot of figures available», explains Mehdi Farsi, professor at the University of Neuchâtel. While there are preferred sides of some shooters or intoxicating on the part of the goalkeepers, the comprehensiveness of the shots leads to results close to Nash’s equilibrium – an economic concept. The holder of the chair of microeconomics specifies that the model is not used so much to predict, but rather to understand. «Add emotions to the equation», launches the professor again.
In other words, pure mathematics will be insufficient to understand the entire penalty shootout. The context of the match, the state of form of the players, the intopposing imidation or even supporters are all variables that vary the predictionsstics.
Not totally deterministic, but useful enough that one of the figures in game theory is hired by a football club. Ignacio Palacios-Huerta was in fact hired in addition to his work as a professor at the London School of Economics. On his CV, he mentions that he is part of the Athletic Bilbao.
The moment of the match during which the penalty is shot is also important. The London researcher indicates the shooter’s success rate according to the goal gap between the teams. Yes a team leads by a goal, the attacker tends to miss his shot more than if the score is tied.
The best strategy is …
To succeed in your shots on goal, you just need to diversify them. A player known to always shoot from the top right makes the job of the opposing goalkeeper easier. If he varies his strikes, he increases his chances of scoring. An example of a good shot is Zinédine Zidane. Nicolas Eber, author ofu book “Game theory», note that the Frenchman shot 21 times right and 19 times left on 40 penalties observed. Its success rates are 76% and 74% respectively. Football has since had better shooters. Bruno Fernandes has for example a conversion rate of 95,8%. He made 45 of his 47 attempts in the data released by Soccerment. It too tends to vary between left and right.
Sometimes on the left, sometimes on the right: the Portuguese knows how to vary his attempts.
Soccerment.
Be careful, however, since the list of «best shooters of the 2020-2021 season» has its share of surprises. Sportskeeda placed in swe rank Kylian Mbappé (author of the failure against Switzerland) and Jorginho (he also missed the boat against the Nati, in September). At Goal.com, Marcus Rashford was placed among the best shooters, which did not prevent him from missing out in the final against Italy.
“There is a psychological warfare that takes place between the shooter and the goalkeeper,” said Patrick Foletti, goalkeeper coach for the Swiss football team. The goalkeeper must succeed in destabilizing the opponent, in making him understand that he will not score. Cit happens through looks, movements or even little words when the shooter takes the ball. “
CLike what, all the technique in the world is not enough if the pressure takes over. Or if you come across a guardian who is stronger than you.
Yann Sommer proves match after match that he is comfortable in exercise. The Swiss doorman arrested 20 Shots on goal in his career, he’s let 63 go. Among world-class goalies, he’s doing pretty well. “There are a thousand little details to look at,” says Patrick Foletti. The Nati goalkeeper coach talks about a mix of rational work and mental and emotional factors. “I always tell my caretakers to listen to their intuition. If we have every reason to think that the player will shoot to the left but the goalkeeper wants to go to the right, he must listen to himself, ”he says.
Some goalies are particularly good at exercising.
Figures: transfermarkt.
