After the emotional roller coaster of the transfer market, it’s time for the emotions and the little stress of the virtual transfer window which fascinates the 500,000 players of Mon Petit Gazon, “MPG”. As in every post-transfer window, the teams of Fantaleague, the SME behind the game of fantasy football, are busy fixing the market value of the players on which friends and colleagues will squander their 500 million euros of virtual money.
The game, which turns 10 this week, has evolved from the early Excel tables and the setting of odds with a wet finger. Here is how, with the help of in-house algorithms, the values of superstars or unknown players in Ligue 1, Ligue 2, Premier League, Liga or Serie A and Champions League are assigned. In all, 650 players per championship will go through the computer mill.
“We have been developing for 4 years a powerful algorithm to lay the foundations and offer a rating that is sometimes adjusted by hand according to our knowledge such as relations with the coach or the propensity to get hurt”, explains Martin Jaglin, the one of the bosses of Fantaleague, the Parisian publisher of the game.
The contribution of the human eye
The software benefits from the precedence of players in the MPG who keep their rating from the previous season and undergo a readjustment. But this becomes more complex for players transferred from a non-European club or neo-professionals.
British statistics specialist Opta provides extensive lists of players that sometimes need to be re-categorized by hand for more precision. A player classified, for example, “middle” by the system can evolve as sentry or behind the attacker. Sometimes with some hiccups – largely exploited by smart kids – like an attacker listed as a midfielder.
The task is sometimes complicated with a little more exotic squads like Sheriff Tiraspol, UFO of the Moldovan championship qualified for the group stage of the Champions League. “For little-known teams, this is done by hand with all the information available on the Internet. It is often a puzzle for the three people who work on it, ”confirms Grégory Rota, co-founder of the platform.
Holders highlighted
First crippling criterion: the player must be a holder in his club, regardless of its market value in real life. The best left-hander in the world who shines on the sidelines will thus suffer from a starving rating. In the same logic, a second knife in a big club will be less valued than a holder in a club that plays relegation.
A holder at his post will have a guaranteed rating above 10 million virtual euros while the number 1 goalkeeper will be at least above 13 and his replacement around 7. Similarly, the arrival of a almost certain holder, like Jérôme Boateng in Lyon, will mechanically lower the odds of the other defenders of the workforce.
The second criterion is performance-based and the processing software will take into account the MPG scores awarded over the last 4 matches. The odds are also automatically readjusted thanks to these ratings every 4 league or Champions League matches.
“Players who have scorer potential, regardless of their position, are also more driven and valued,” adds Grégory Rota. A central defender, a good header from a corner, or a field player who shoots the penalties will stand out on this one quality alone.
What about the wounded and the suspended? The odds of a player in the infirmary for several months logically fall but it will readjust all the more quickly if it is a performing player or a star of the championship. In short, the odds of a Neymar, a Messi or a Delort will only experience a temporary plunge from which users of the paid Expert mode could take advantage.
The game currently has 250,000 active players, a figure that is expected to double over the weekend following this eagerly awaited update, which will kick off the season for good.
