The season of the pandemic reached the Playoffs, and the first round the NFL has called it “Super Wild Card Weekend.”
The reason is the new extended postseason format, in which seven teams from each Conference qualify and only two are entitled to a bye week, in this case Kansas City and Green Bay, favorites to play Super Bowl LV, on February 7 in Tampa, Florida.
I am very struck by how the local teams in these Playoffs. In the regular season, with the stadiums empty or semi-empty, the visitors closed with a balance of 128 wins, 127 losses and a draw. And there is no reason to think that the trend will change in January.
In Wild Card games, only two visiting teams are favorites: Baltimore and Tampa Bay.
Six of the 12 teams playing this weekend are looking rematch of a regular season loss against the same rival: Ravens, Bears, Steelers, Browns, Seahawks y Rams.
Those teams are 35-37 since 1990 in the Wild Card round, but against the spread they are 41-27-4, a fact to take into account if betting is your thing.
Let’s go to the picks:
INDIANAPOLIS EN BUFFALO (-6.5)
To win, the Colts must… find a way to stop Josh Allen (4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns and another eight on the ground) and a Bills attack that averaged 47.7 points in the most recent three. Indianapolis doesn’t have the staff to get caught up in a shootout with the Bills, so their best bet is to rush with rookie Jonathan Taylor (1,169 yards, 11 touchdowns) and use up all the clock they can to keep Allen on the bench.
To win, the Bills must… attack the perimeter of the Colts, who in December allowed 331.7 yards a game. Stefon Diggs (1,535 yards, 8 touchdowns) will be the main problem for the Indianapolis defense, but add Cole Beasley, John Brown and even Isaiah McKenzie, who can also hurt special teams. DeForest Buckner and Justin Houston must pressure Allen to give their teammates a chance on the perimeter.
El pick: Buffalo is – with all due respect to the champion Chiefs – the team that enters the Playoffs in the best form in the AFC. If Allen and Sean McDermott’s offense is capable of scoring two quick touchdowns, the game will be where it doesn’t suit coach Frank Reich: in the hands of Philip Rivers. Bills 31-21 Colts
LOS ANGELES RAMS EN SEATTLE (-3.5)
To win, the Rams must… dominate with their defense, because their attack has eight quarters without being able to score a touchdown and it’s not certain that Jared Goff can start this game, so we’ll probably see John Wolford again. The situation worsens if wide receiver Cooper Kupp (COVID-19) cannot return either. So Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and the rest of the Rams defense will have the responsibility, including scoring points so the visitors can surprise in Seattle.
To win, the Seahawks must… protect Russell Wilson, particularly from Donald, who has 13 quarterback sacks in 14 games against Seattle. Ramsey has kept DK Metcalf (8 receptions, 87 yards in two games) very low-key this season, so Wilson will have to rely more on Tyler Lockett (1,054 yards, 10 touchdowns in 2020) for the passing game. On defense, the plan is very simple: stop the running attack and force Goff or Wolford to throw the ball more than the coach wanted. Sean McVay.
El pick: McVay is 5-3 against Seattle, but his offense wore off at the end of the regular season and there is no indication that he can revive in the Playoffs; Seattle’s defense has improved dramatically since November, meaning coach Pete Carroll’s team (11-9 in the postseason) is ready for a dogfight at Lumen Field. Seahawks 22-15 Rams
TAMPA BAY (-8) EN WASHINGTON
To win, the Buccaneers must… protect better than ever Tom Brady. The front of the Washington Football Team is the best in the league and we all know that if you push and hit him, “TB12” becomes an unspectacular quarterback, so to speak. Brady is going to miss Mike Evans (knee), so Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski will have more prominence in the Playoffs. On defense, Tampa Bay must be ready not only for Alex Smith, but also for Taylor Heinicke, who coach Ron Rivera could use.
To win, the WFT must… win the battle in the trenches and dominate with the front. Chase Young, Montez Sweat and the rest of the Washington rushers must hit Brady all night to stand a chance. The exchanges of the ball will be very important and that is another department in which Coach Rivera’s team must have a favorable balance. The WFT offense, with Smith or Heinicke, does not have enough “punch” to compete with Brady’s arsenal, so going down by two touchdowns could sentence the locals.
El pick: Washington’s defense will keep Rivera’s team in the game, but Brady has too many weapons to draw on, plus Tampa Bay won’t take many points from an anemic offense either. Buccaneers 24-17 WFT
BALTIMORE (-3.5) EN TENNESSEE
To win, the Ravens must… run the ball more and better than Tennessee. In losses in the 2019 Divisional Game and Week 11 of this season, Baltimore’s defense allowed 390 rushing yards, including 328 from Derrick Henry. Both teams win in exactly the same way, so the pressure is on the Ravens defense, which allows an average of 108.8 rushing yards per game. Can Lamar Jackson win a playoff game? Third chance for the young quarterback.
To win, the Titans must… repeat what they did in last year’s Playoffs, when they scored two quick touchdowns and took the Ravens’ running game out of the equation. At the start of the fourth quarter, Jackson had 49 yards rushing and 50 passing yards, with a 28-6 slab on the scoreboard. This year Baltimore has rookie JK Dobbins (805 yards, 9 touchdowns) and that complicates the task of Mike Vrabel’s defense. Another good game from Henry is necessary, but Ryan Tannehill has proven to be a more than adequate quarterback for Tennessee’s vertical attack.
El pick: Baltimore closed the regular season with five straight wins, scoring at least 34 points in four of them, while Tennessee’s defense allowed at least 430 yards in four of the last five (except against Jacksonville). Lamar Jackson will finally prove that he can win the big games. Ravens 27-24 Titans
CHICAGO EN NEW ORLEANS (-9.5)
To win, the Bears must… find a way to contain Alvin Kamara. In the Week 8 game, Drew Brees searched 13 times for Kamara; he connected with 9 passes for 96 yards; on the ground, he added another 67 yards. If Michael Thomas does not return for the Wild Card, Kamara will once again be Brees’ henchman.
To win, the Saints must… force Mitchell Tribusky to pitch all afternoon. The Chicago quarterback only attempted more than 26 passes once this season and it was in Week 17 against Green Bay. For New Orleans, the formula is simple: stop David Montgomery in the running attack and attack Trubisky with Trey Hendrickson (13.5 sacks), Cameron Jordan (7.5) and company.
El pick: Chicago entered the Playoffs through the back door and to surprise New Orleans their defense is going to need a perfect game and zero errors from Trubisky. Sean Payton’s team (8-7 in the playoffs) is much more balanced and his only home losses in 2020 were to Green Bay and Kansas City. Saints 28-17 Bears
CLEVELAND EN PITTSBURGH (-6)
To win, the Browns must… try to dominate with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the running game. Exposing Baker Mayfield – in his Playoff debut – against the Pittsburgh defense is not a good idea. Cleveland’s bench will miss their coach Kevin Stefanski (COVID-19); special teams coordinator Mike Priefer will serve as head coach and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will make the calls.
To win, the Steelers must… protect Ben Roethlisberger and trust the veteran quarterback to have a good day. Pittsburgh depends 100% on its passing attack, so this team needs the “Big Ben” of the second half against Indianapolis, not the one we saw in December (6 touchdowns, 5 interceptions). In Week 6, when the Steelers won 38-7, the Browns were without Chubb and on Sunday Cleveland will try to put the game in the hands of its best running back. Stopping that pair of extraordinary running backs is the first step for Mike Tomlin’s defense.
El pick: Cleveland’s most recent win at Pittsburgh was in 2003, so for the Browns this game carries the weight of history as well. The Steelers defense will force Mayfield’s mistake and “Big Ben” will finish off his divisional rivals with a pair of late-game touchdown passes. Steelers 35-21 Browns
TRIPLE OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles in Seattle UNDER 42.5
Tampa Bay en Washington UNDER 45
Cleveland en Pittsburgh OVER 47
PICKS RACE
Last week
DeTocho: 12-4
Pyrrho: 14-2
In the season
DeTocho: 179-77
Pyrron: 166-90
Against the spread
DeTocho: 121-129-6
Pyrrho: 108-132-16
