Japan firmly denied last week information according to which it would study the annulment of the Tokyo Olympics, already postponed last year due to the pandemic. But six months after the planned opening, doubts persist.
When the country, partially under a state of emergency, faces a violent third wave of COVID-19 infections, these are the main questions raised regarding an eventual cancellation.
What do those responsible say?
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga repeated on Friday that he was “Determined” to host the Games this year, while a government spokesman assured that there was “nothing of truth” in the information of the British newspaper ‘The Times’, according to which Japan had already secretly resigned from the event.
The president of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), Thomas Bach, had stated the day before that he had “no reason to believe that the Tokyo Olympics will not open on July 23”, however admitting that a limited number of viewersEven without an audience, they were possible options. The decision on the eventual presence of the public, including those from abroad, must be made in the coming months.
What do athletes think?
Pressure from athletes was seen as the trigger for the postponement in March 2020, shortly before the IOC’s historic decision to postpone the Games by one year.
This time, Several National Olympic Committees announced that they are preparing to send their athletes to Japan, as planned, and the Greek Olympic pole vault champion Katerina Stefanidi, one of the leaders of the sports movement that defended the postponement of the Games last year, is in favor of its maintenance in 2021, behind closed doors if necessary . American gymnast Simone Biles also hopes that the Games can take place, “even if you have to be in a bubble.” However, Japanese gymnast Kohei Uchimura believed that would only make sense if Japanese public opinion, which is currently opposed to maintaining the Games this year, changes its mind.
How much would the annulment cost?
The organizers in December reassessed the budget for the Games to 13,000 million euros, 2,300 million euros more than the previous estimate, due to the costs of postponement and health measures. The total sum could be higher, making Tokyo 2020 the most expensive Summer Olympics ever.
However, its cancellation would not really affect the third world economy, since lThe necessary infrastructures have already been built and “the cost of organizing the Games is probably less than 0.1% of the Japanese GDP,” Tom Learmouth, from the Capital Economics research firm, told AFP.
Some sectors such as tourism and the hotel-restaurant industry would suffer losses in the event of cancellation, although the doping effect of the Games on consumption is not evident, and less in a pandemic period.
What is the government’s room for maneuver?
Yoshihide Suga, prime minister since last September, saw his popularity plummet due to his acting too slow and confusing in the face of the pandemic.
When a vast majority of Japanese people oppose holding the Games this year, an annulment would be the lesser evil politically, estimates Tobias Harris, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence. “The political risk of organizing the Games and thus causing an aggravation of the pandemic seems to me heavier than admitting that holding it would be too dangerous and working with the IOC on a more tailored solution,” Harris judges.
What consequences does it have for sport?
The IOC has considerable financial reserves that have enabled it to cope with last year’s postponement of Tokyo 2020, but experts estimate that an annulment would have disastrous consequences.
Many national and international sports federations would find themselves in financial jeopardy, as some are heavily dependent on money from the IOC. Some athletes would see their hopes of participating in the Games gone forever, and a cancellation could also weaken the image of the Olympic movement, when the number of candidate cities was already in decline even before the pandemic.
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