ESPN staff
The NFL schedule for week 12 starts with a great football on Thanksgiving Day. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for every matchup, and the final score.
In addition, ESPN Stats & Information provides statistics that are known for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) includes a matchup rating (on a scale from 1 to 100) and a game projection. Kyle Soppe from ESPN Fantasy and Dave Bearman from ESPN Chalk are also handing out helpful nuggets. It’s all here to prepare you for a day of NFL football.
Let’s get to the full Thanksgiving Day, including a huge AFC North showdown.
Jump to a matchup:
HOU-DET | WSH-DAL | BAL-PIT
12:30 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 24.2 | Spread:: HOU -3 (51.5)
What to look out for: Is this Matt Patrick’s final position as Detroit coach? After three double-digit losses in the Lions’ last four games (and a 21-point lead if the team wins at this distance), it’s pretty bad for the third-year coach. How Detroit reacts to knowing how hot their coach’s seat is – in their only nationally televised game of the season – is the greatest story for either team in an otherwise memorable matchup. – Michael Rothstein
Courageous prediction: Texans running back Duke Johnson will hurry to a season high of 75 meters. The Texans’ running game has struggled all season and in his two games, which started for the injured David Johnson, Duke Johnson has played 69 yards with 24 runs. But this week the Texans face the 30th run defense in the NFL, with the Lions allowing an average of 139 rushing yards per game. – Sarah Barshop
Stat of knowing: Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson has already played five games with at least 300 passes this season, most of which have drawn in a single season of his career (2018). Only Matt Schaub had more games like this in a single season in Texan history (nine in 2009 and seven in 2010).
Injuries: Texans | Lions
What you should know for the imagination: Duke Johnson’s production in Week 11 wasn’t exactly underwhelming, but the fact that he got 76.9% of Houston’s return carries weight as the Texans face the league’s worst defense against fantasy RBs this season. See week 12 ranking.
Betting nugget: Detroit is 6-2 against the Spread (ATS) in its last eight Thanksgiving games (covered last season). Continue reading.
Barshop’s selection: Texans 24, Lions 17
Rothstein’s choice: Texans 31, Lions 17
FPI prediction: HOU 56.1% (average 2.1 points)
Relapse on Thanksgiving Day: The Texans and Lions met for Thanksgiving in 2012 in a game that was remembered for some controversy. The Texans running back Justin Forsett scored an 81-yard touchdown, despite replays showing several Lions players attacking him and his knee and elbow hitting the ground near midfield. But a challenge flag from Detroit coach Jim Schwartz negated the automatic scoring check, and the Texans won 34-31 on an overtime goal from Shayne Graham.
Matchup must be read: The Texans defense has a “great all-round game” against patriots … Where are the lions under Patricia? No improvement, no progress, no answers either … “Bassfield Boys” have a reunion in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day … Analysis of Detroit’s man defense against Zone
4:30 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 12.9 | Spread:: FROM -2.5 (46.5)
What to look out for: With first place in the NFC East on the line – at least until Sunday – which team will make fewer mistakes? The Cowboys have made at least one turnover in every game since the season opener and have 21 in the season, the second highest in the league. Washington has 17 freebies which makes it the fifth most ranked. While the teams’ 3-7 records show how bad the season has gone, there’s still a chance of making the playoffs by winning the division. Taking care of the ball is even more important when the margin of error is so low. – Todd Archer
Courageous prediction: In three home games against Washington, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott averaged 113.3 yards and 1.3 touchdowns. Of course, he’ll complete 113 yards and a touchdown on Thursday. Washington’s run defense has been inconsistent at best, partly because some of its linemen continue to use two-gap techniques in a one-gap system and then don’t attack linebackers often enough. Quarterback Alex Smith will keep Washington in this game, but if Elliott cracks 100 yards, Dallas will be 23-4. – John Keim
Stat of knowing: Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin has 120 receptions in 24 career games. It took McLaurin 11 against Dallas to play the most games in Washington franchise history. The product from the US state of Ohio is currently third on the list behind Jordan Reed (130) and Gary Clark (122).
Injuries: Washington | Cowboys
What you should know for the imagination: For the past three weeks, Washington’s Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic have both been top 10 running backs. See week 12 ranking.
Betting nugget: Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Thanksgiving games. Continue reading.
Germ choice: Cowboys 27, Washington 24
Archers selection: Cowboys 27, Washington 17
FPI prediction: WSH, 54.8% (average 1.7 points)
Relapse on Thanksgiving Day: In 1974, backup quarterback Clint Longley stepped up for an injured Roger Staubach with the Cowboys behind Washington 16-3. Longley took Dallas to victory, completing 11 passes for 203 yards. He ended the comeback with a 50-yard touchdown pass to Drew Pearson 28 seconds ahead, and the extra point kick gave the Cowboys a 24:23 victory.
Matchup must be read: Smith’s calming influence gives Washington hope … McCarthy inspired cowboys by smashing watermelons
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 90.1 | Spread:: PIT -4.5 (45)
What to look out for: The Steelers insist they don’t have Raven’s quarterback Lamar Jackson’s number, but they forced him to flip the ball four times in the previous session and throw three interceptions in their 2019 lone matchup (Jackson was removed from the game of 17th Week excluded). . The Ravens could still run all over Pittsburgh earlier this month, but the Steelers’ pressure and ability to make Jackson uncomfortable is very effective. Look for them to call back. – Brooke Pryor
Courageous prediction: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will throw four touchdown passes. Since 2013 he has been 4-1 against the Ravens at Heinz Field and throws 13 touchdowns and three interceptions (104.0 passer rating). And in Baltimore’s four losses this season, the defense has given up 10 touchdown passes and recorded one interception. – Jamison Hensley
Stat of knowing: The Steelers are the 14th team since the 16-game schedule was introduced (1978), which started with a 10-0 record, and only one of those teams ended with fewer than 13 wins (the 2015 Patriots went 12-4) . Pittsburgh can secure a playoff spot in Week 12, with a win on Thursday and a loss for the Raiders and Dolphins on Sunday. It would be the earliest clinching since the 1990 playoffs expanded to 12 teams (now 14 teams), but only one of the six teams that took a seat in Week 12 won the Super Bowl (Washington 1991).
Injuries: Ravens | Steelers
What you should know for the imagination: Marquise Brown, a Baltimore recipient, has seen a drop in his fantasy points in each of his last five games. See week 12 ranking.
Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS this season, the top grade in the NFL. Continue reading.
Hensley’s choice: Steelers 31, Ravens 23
Pryor’s Choice: Steelers 34, Ravens 31
FPI prediction: PIT 53.8% (average 1.3 points)
Relapse on Thanksgiving Day: A 2013 matchup – the only such meeting between these teams on Thanksgiving – ended in a failed 2-point conversion attempt for Pittsburgh, resulting in a 22-20 Ravens win. But the game is remembered for a 73-yard kickoff return. Baltimore returnees Jacoby Jones sprinted up the left and seemed destined to get him inside, but he nearly met Steeler’s trainer Mike Tomlin, who was very close to the pitch. Jones didn’t score and the trip ended with a field goal. Tomlin was fined $ 100,000 for the incident.
Matchup must be read: Ravens tumble after another painful and embarrassing collapse of the Titans … Comeback Player of the Year? Steelers’ Roethlisberger is also pushing for the first MVP … From creepy to simple: The free fall of Jackson and the Ravens … How good are the Steelers? Ranking Pittsburgh against other 10-0 teams
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