In the days leading up to the resumption of the NBA season, there was a school of thought about the quality of basketball that we would see. “It will take some time for your offense to arrive,” TNT analyst Reggie Miller said during the first quarter of the Lakers-Clippers bubble opening on July 30. “And that’s why I think the defense will be ahead of your attack.”
But the exact opposite proved true in the seeding games. The 22 teams in the bubble averaged 113.17 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass, compared to the 111.95 they had on average before the close of the championship in March.
The offense was already up to historical levels prior to the closure of COVID-19. Instead of reversing this trend, as Miller et al. Predicted, the bubble seeding games accelerated it significantly. In fact, the average offensive efficiency in half-court possessions it went from 95 before shutdown to 98.7 in the bubble. In situations where offense and defense were on a level playing field, offense gained more advantage, not less.
It is understandable why Miller and other analysts were wrong. They were just following the recent NBA history. While there are no parallels to a four and a half month seasonal hiatus caused by a global pandemic, the 1998 and 2011 labor disputes at least shared some characteristics with the 2020 hiatus. In both subsequent seasons, efficiency average offensive dropped dramatically from the previous campaign before recovering the following year.
The offense decreased after previous work stoppages
League average metrics for regular seasons following work stoppages in 1998 and 2011 versus immediately preceding and following seasons
| Season | Offensive evaluation | Defensive evaluation | % Of real recovery | FG% effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997-98 | 105.05 | 105.01 | 52.38% | 47.83% |
| 1998-99 | 102.22 | 102.18 | 51.18 | 46.59 |
| 1999-00 | 104.05 | 104.04 | 52.29 | 47.83 |
| 2010-11 | 107.26 | 107.23 | 54.15 | 49.85 |
| 2011-12 | 104.59 | 104.60 | 52.70 | 48.73 |
| 2012-13 | 105.84 | 105.84 | 53.47 | 49.66 |
Like those seasons following the lockdown, this year’s COVID-19 hiatus was marked by a one-month layoff with no clear end date, separation from team training facilities, a shortened preseason, and a compressed schedule for adapt as many games as possible. “Most of these players don’t have legs yet,” Miller said during the same segment. “Remember, four and a half months of layoff! And now you are shocking, you are shaking the body. “The evidence seemed clear: those shortcomings would affect the crimes more than the defenses.
So why did the opposite happen in 2020? Two reasons: the defenses couldn’t stop fouling and the shooters couldn’t stop missing.
In fact, the referees whistled much more often after the restart than before. Each type of phallus was called more often in the bubble. There were more shooting fouls, but also more freedom of movement infractions that occurred before the shot. Offensive fouls, such as illegal screens, were also booed more often. The referees did not discriminate, which means that the teams spent nearly 30% of their possessions on the penalty bubble, compared to 26% before half-time.
The fouls are high up inside the bubble
Fouls committed per match in the bubble against before the 2019-20 regular season was suspended
| foul category | Before the break | From reboot | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shot | 19.47 | 20.92 | +1.45 |
| Other personal faults | 13.64 | 14.88 | +1.23 |
| Loose ball | 2.34 | 2.89 | +0.55 |
| charges | 1:20 | 1:43 | +0.23 |
| Other offensive fouls | 2.75 | 3.60 | +0.85 |
| Technicians | 0.72 | 0.75 | +0.03 |
| All the other fouls | 1:05 | 1.33 | +0.28 |
| Total | 41.17 | 45.80 | +4.63 |
The average free-throw rate – free throws made for every 100 field goal attempts – jumped from 20 before shutdown to 22.8 in bubble-sowing matches, an unmatched score over an entire season since 2010-11. Free throws, which were steadily declining in the 3-point era, are back in vogue.
The unique environment of the bubble has produced many theories for the rise of bad calls. Without the fans, referees could feel more clearly the contact they would otherwise lose during bang-bang plays, not to mention the complaints of players and coaches. Players needed time to regain their conditioning after being fired, and tired players tend to commit more fouls. The referees themselves were out of rhythm and needed time to readjust to the pace of the game.
There is some degree of truth to each of these explanations. As The Athletic’s Seth Partnow noted, league collective free throws rate returned to normal levels in the second week of the bubble after having skyrocketed in the beginning. Everyone just needed time to adjust to the new normal.
Yet the offense continued to reign even as the whistles became less frequent. At the same time, the dirty drawing fell on the earth, the accuracy of the shot shot through the ozone layer. The league’s average effective field goal percentage rose a full point on the bubble, and was 1.7 percentage points higher than the pre-bubble regular season in the final week of matches alone. This again goes against the trend of the two seasons following the lockout, during which shooting accuracy dropped dramatically before climbing back up again.
Those in the league were less surprised that the bubble environment turned out to be shooter heaven. “Every night is the same court” Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni said. “You get your footage, depth perception and everything in between.” The absence of fans not only eliminated distractions but also improved the players’ view. As Dallas Mavericks guard Tim Hardaway Jr. told The Ringer: “You can’t see through the board, from a shooting standpoint, as it’s obscured.” And don’t underestimate the impact of the benches moving away from the sidelines, costing teams a chance to scream at opposing shooters.
All of these factors certainly contributed to the increase in the 3-point shot. Bombs from the center accounted for a higher percentage of overall shot attempts in the bubble, and players made more of those shots than before. In a way, defense didn’t matter as much as the unique setting itself. Gamers snapped and achieved a higher percentage of open looks, but they also achieved a higher percentage of heavily contested looks.
The shooters were better regardless of the defense
Frequency and percentage of field goals of shots taken from the distance of the defender, in the bubble against before the suspension of the regular season 2019-20
| Strictly defended | wide open | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frequency | FG% | Frequency | FG% | |
| From reboot | 8.46% | 48.67% | 22.56% | 42.72% |
| Before the break | 8.71 | 46.24 | 21.96 | 42.01 |
| Difference | -0.25 | 2:43 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
In another sense, though, the defense was really behind the offense in a way that wasn’t specific to the environment. A better view might explain why the shooters done plus three corner, for example, but they don’t really explain why he took plus three corner. Defenses may have overreacted to dribble penetration, violating the cardinal rule of never helping out of the strong corner.
These are errors caused by many of the same forces that caused the increase in foul calls. Tired gamers make mental mistakes, especially when trying to process the many widespread threats present today. After all, in the face of a pandemic that requires social isolation, it is much easier to develop a jump shot than a coordinated defensive scheme that requires precise movement and teamwork.
In this way, the post-COVID-19 championship offensive explosion should come as no surprise. Body shaking after a four-and-a-half month layoff may have negatively impacted offenses in the past, but that was before the 3-point revolution transformed the sport and forced defenses to cover more ground with the same number of players. The style of play today is nothing like the one that has dominated most of NBA history. Why should the same historical post-dismissal standards apply?
Check out our latest news NBA Predictions.
