Kevin C. Cox / Associated Press
Let’s call the NBA race for eighth and ninth place in the Western Conference what it is: pure, total, mind-boggling anarchy.
What makes it great.
And extremely confusing too.
Removing the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings from the Fracas did little to simplify the range of results. The Memphis Grizzlies (currently eighth), Portland Trail Blazers (ninth), Phoenix Suns (10th) and San Antonio Spurs (11th) compete in the final two games of the regular season, with only one game between them when they lose each other separates column.
Each of them can technically take eighth place. Or ninth. Your possible routes to any of these locations seem endless. The Athletic’s John Hollinger did a fantastic job figuring out what needs to happen for any squad to crack the play-in tournament. I can’t do better and won’t try.
Given this maze of logistics, I’m more interested in answering the question everyone has been asking since the league unveiled the restart format: which two teams are now best positioned to qualify for the play-in tournament ?
Ashley Landis / Associated Press
Remaining opponents: Houston Rockets (August 11), Utah Jazz (August 13)
Counting the spurs is not for bad nincompoops. You’re the damn spurs. You work with 22 post-season gigs for a reason. They are here, alive for one of the play-in spots ever, because they aren’t the pushover artists that were no longer tenable in the past. Many painted them as a pre-bubble.
Sincerely, was one of those Cretans who predicted the return of San Antonio to the lottery. Could also be consistent.
Of course, I don’t throw wet toilet paper on the wall and hope it sticks. Not entirely, anyway. Your Disney World romp just doesn’t feel sustainable.
Derrick White was white hot but left Sunday’s win against the Pelicans with an injury to his left knee. Keldon Johnson hasn’t missed an open three since roughly the Tim Duncan era. Drew Eubanks actually plays and does party crash recordings on the edge and hanging in space. Only the Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers shoot a better percentage of three.
Losing white or not having it at its best is enough to cast doubt on the Spurs. Even if he’s okay, your most likely route to the play-in tournament is to win. This is … a medium sized order.
Houston has nothing to do Really play for, but don’t sit every Tuesday. James Harden and Eric Gordon don’t play;; It should be Robert Covington, PJ Tucker, and Russell Westbrook.
Jazz is more of a wild card. So obviously they have no interest in finishing fifth and playing the Rockets, and then they taught a master class in tanking during the game on Monday. But if they want sixth seed and the Dallas Mavericks have a chance to win, they may be concerned about the bottom line of Thursday’s matchup with the Spurs, which again would be bad news for San Antonio.
Kevin C. Cox / Associated Press
Remaining opponents: Philadelphia 76ers (Aug 11), Dallas Mavericks (Aug 13)
Writing down Disney’s undefeated world’s best suns feels like basketball treason.
Mikal Bridges deletes opposing players from the planet at will. Jevon Carter takes up his defense duties outside of their hotel room. Cameron Johnson hits three and makes quick passes, barely serving as a cement prop on the less glamorous end. Cameron Payne is actually one of the best shooters in the world. Ricky Rubio hits 44.4 percent of his Treys. Deandre Ayton looks like a viable number 2.
Oh yeah, and Phoenix has this Devin Booker. It turns out he’s pretty good. He averages 30.3 points and 6.0 points in the bladder for absurd efficiency:
And favale @danfavale
NBA players with a USG%> 30 and TS%> 60 at Disney (at least three games): Giannis Antetokounmpo Devin Booker James Harden Kawhi Leonard https://t.co/avX8uoshto
You can understand why this is such a tough call. It’s even harder to know that Booker played less than 30 minutes in Monday’s win, and Ayton, who didn’t come to the Suns until after being told about missing a coronavirus test, logged a little over 17. You should being fresh for the second end of the back on Tuesday – against the Sixers who will miss Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and possibly a number of other people:
Whether the Mavericks play at full throttle on Thursday depends on their desire and ability to finish sixth. Avoiding the Clippers in the first round would register a win, but Dallas must win their last two games and need San Antonio to beat Utah for this to happen.
Bringing the suns here is both a hedge against the Mavericks who may care about Thursday’s result, and the sheer difficulty of staying undefeated at Disney. They also need a little help – from Memphis or Portland – to secure a play-in slot even if they go 8-0.
Ashley Landis / Associated Press
Remaining opponents: Boston Celtics (August 11), Milwaukee Bucks (August 13)
The grizzlies cheese Turn off the must-see suns and I won’t feel good about it. You are here for sheer convenience. You could lose either of your last two competitions and still place a play-in bid, as Hollinger noted:
“Memphis will play the game with either one win or loss for Phoenix and San Antonio, or two losses for Portland and one loss for Phoenix or San Antonio.
“Memphis takes the eighth seed with two wins or one win and one loss in Portland. They are less likely to be the eighth seed if Portland loses twice and Phoenix and San Antonio both lose at least once.”
Perhaps this still overestimates the grizzlies’ chances.
They have neither Jaren Jackson Jr. (left meniscus tear) nor Justise Winslow (hip), and Tyus Jones is paused because of his own injury to his right knee. Hardly any of their constellations make more sense. They have an Indiana Pacers West vibe that compares better with talent on the floor, but they’re extremely thin when shooting outdoors, and Dillon Brooks is actively trying to give Grizz fans a heart attack:
Dropping each of the next two games is a distinct possibility – and likely depends on how the bucks get closer to Thursday’s showdown. The Celtics have the choice of the Grizzlies for the first round of 2020 (Top 6 Protection) and have every reason to aim for victory. Milwaukee will face Orlando Magic in the first round and has no incentive to play a cast against Memphis unless the recently returned Eric Bledsoe needs more reps with the starters.
Think of this as a lukewarm guess that the Grizzlies will find a way to go 1-1 in the next two games. Yes Morant’s efficiency is way down, but he’s still Yes Morant. Brandon Clarke and Jonas Valanciunas are way better than they showed.
Maybe Kyle Anderson has a big game in him. Or maybe De’Anthony Melton is forcing 37 steals against a semi-judicial offense by Bucks that may be missing Giannis Antetokounmpo. I dont know. That stuff is heavy. I regret everything.
Kevin C. Cox / Associated Press
Remaining opponents: Dallas Mavericks (August 11), Brooklyn Nets (August 13)
It speaks to the fragility and bol bol thin margin for failure of this entire process that I am most confident that the blazers will wrap up one of the two play-in spots.
Like the grizzlies, they control their own destiny. Winning secures their entry. Taking care of the networks shouldn’t be a problem. Your full-strength bubble roster isn’t even half of your actual full-strength roster. The Mavs, on the other hand, have something to play – insofar as they want to take sixth instead of seventh place. It could get ugly for the blazers if Dallas’ offense gets to the point.
On the other hand, falling on the Mavericks wouldn’t be the end of the world. Portland has other paths to eighth or ninth place – hypotheses that grow exponentially more likely if either Spurs or Suns loses on Tuesday.
Perhaps the blazers don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. she Rank 20 allowed in points per 100 possessions since restart and couldn’t find a way to beat a Clippers squad who were definitely trying to increase their postseason chances.
Even so, Portland has Damian Lillard, a 40- to 50-foot piece. CJ McCollum is a standalone offensive weapon. Jusuf Nurkic is already much better on the defensive. Carmelo Anthony shoots well. Gary Trent Jr. has never missed a three. Against crime, almost 46 percent of their open threesomes swing against them. That should normalize immediately.
This team just doesn’t seem like the most likely participant. It feels like the favorite to win.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference or Cleaning the Glass and current heading for Friday’s games. Salary and cap hold information on basketball insiders, early bird rights and Spotrac.
Dan Favale reports on the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@ Danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood knocks Podcast, moderated jointly by Adam Fromal from B / R.
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