CLEVELAND, Ohio – It’s the latest edition of Hey, Chris!
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Hey, Chris: Among the top three wings of the draft – Isaac Okoro, Deni Avdija and Devin Vassell – who do the Cavs seem to like most? Who do you think they would have taken?
Everyone wants this answer. And I don’t think the three wings will be there only players considered at number 5. What if someone from the first tier – LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman or Anthony Edwards – were to fall more than expected? What would Obi Toppin’s Cavs do, who doesn’t satisfy a need but could be considered the best player available at the time? Could they consider another guard: Tyrese Haliburton or Killian Hayes? Where does USC’s Onyeka Okongwu belong in their rankings?
He is so early in this process and is a difficult class to assess. Even just fixing the first three wings will be a challenge. But given the composition of the roster and Cleveland’s desperate need for a two-way winger, starting the draft of the conversation with Okoro, Avdija and Vassell makes more sense. Any of these three will be the best combination of talent and fitness.
“All three are very close,” a source said recently. “They are all winners and intangibles.”
Ask a Cavaliers front office member and they’ll have a leaderboard starting with Avdija, the 19-year-old forward who started answering questions about his tentative outside shot after the restart. Ask another and the wing list will start with Okoro, the relentless and sturdy defender who is also a formidable finisher on the edge. There are also supporters of Vassell, the late flourishing and analytical darling who was underutilized in the state of Florida.
The Cavs have done extensive work on this class project. They saw these three perspectives for themselves. They spent time on campus (or abroad in Avdija’s case). My first favorite in this scenario, if the Cavs are harvesting with all three available wings, is Okoro. He is a ready-made defensive player and the Cavs believe that shooting, in many cases, is a correctable flaw. But the pre-drafting process will be important, just like it was with Collin Sexton in 2018 and Darius Garland last year.
Hey, Chris: Can you imagine the Cavs using the mid-level exception in free agency?
All signs indicate that the Cavs use it, if there is a player worth signing. This offseason is going to be wild. But after finishing with the second worst record in the league, the Cavs want to step up and push for a place in the playoffs. There are two ways to do this: internally, with the continued growth of young players, better coaching and strong chemistry. And externally, through the project, free agency and sale.
The Cavs believe they are well positioned in any trading scenario, possessing a combination of high-paying pieces and resources, including a top 5 pick in 2020, a bevy of former first rounders, and the future of Milwaukee first. In a vital offseason, with a lot of decisions in sight, this gives the Cavs – and here’s that word again – a choice.
Now, free will as a whole will be a little more complicated. Nobody knows what the salary cap will be. There are rumors about it falling from the initial screenings and the teams will have to adapt accordingly. Some may even be forced into cost-cutting maneuvers. Agents continue to talk about the possibility that both sign-and-trade and one-year deals are prevalent.
The Cavs’ main decision this summer is out of their hands. Andre Drummond checks their financial situation. With Drummond most likely joining, the Cavs will only have the mid-tier exception, valued at around $ 8-9 million. President Dan Gilbert has always given the green light to CEO Koby Altman. Free agency. Trades. Pay for the draft pick. Even in this climate, spending will not be limited. If there is a player that is worth using the entire MLE on and fits the style and culture of the Cavs, then the Cavs will explore it.
Miami swingman Derrick Jones Jr. is on the radar. Memphis swingman Josh Jackson makes sense as a remediation project. If the Cavs don’t draft a big one and Tristan Thompson leaves in free will, then it would make sense to take a risk on former first-round pick Harry Giles. The Cavs could also split the middle level and use a big chunk on one player and the leftovers on another. With Matthew Dellavedova and Thompson both free agents with no restrictions and Ante Zizic already signing overseas, the Cavs have a few places to fill before the 2020-21 season.
Hey, Chris: Are the Cavs looking into draft trade down scenarios?
It depends on what happens in the first four picks and who is on the board at that moment. Swapping means that a team is moving up. So who is the target for a team outside the top 5?
If Ball has an unexpected fall, the teams will call. Detroit and New York, sitting in seventh and eighth places, would be a match, depending on what the Cavs could get in return. Wiseman’s drop could lead to trading opportunities. But the Cavs would flip the card into themselves quickly rather than accept a deal. Either way, both scenarios seem unlikely. Maybe the Phoenix Suns get nervous, believing they are just out of range of the wings, and want to go up. But getting off at number 10 isn’t ideal for Cavs in need of a wing.
Another reality that works against the Cavs: the perceived drop-off is after the number 3, not the number 4. So, the Cavs are a point away from that marker.
Sure, trading lower makes a lot of sense for the Cavs. Their second level of perspectives is about six or seven deep. The first three wings are similar and not having to worry about that decision would be nice. Falling down, accumulating another asset or two, and still end up with one of those wings? It is ideal. But this is considered a weak project. It’s hard to see a team outside of the top 5 desperate to step up in place of the Cavs.
Hey, Chris: What do the Cavs have to challenge for a place in the playoffs next year?
Ask anyone in the organization and they will answer the same way. Start in defense. The Cavs finished last in the defensive standings, allowing for a whopping 114.8 points per 100 possessions. Of the 16 playoff teams, only Portland finished in the bottom third of the league in this category. The Blazers, who have faced countless injuries, also had one of the best offensives in the league, allowing them to overtake and barely sneak into the postseason in the wake of a wave of bubbles.
Translation: Bad defensive teams are generally not successful.
A year after ending up dead last on that end of the floor, the Cavs entered the 2019-20 season hoping to improve. Fighting former coach John Beilein has often tried to use the terrifying stat and overall team record as a motivational tool when punishing players. But little has changed. The small defense zone couldn’t keep the guards off the paint. The Cavs were in the last draw with the Atlanta Hawks, conceding 53.6 points per game in the paint. Having Drummond for an entire season should help. He can finish off goods with bounces, provide some resistance to the rim, and use his length and athleticism to get into passing lanes while discouraging drivers. But the best form of rim protection comes on the perimeter. The Sexton-Garland pairing has obvious limitations. Cedi Osman is a responsibility. Slow-paced Kevin Love needs protection for the circle next to him.
Defensive Player Impact Plus-Minus (D-PIPM for short) is a metric that combines the plus-minus luck-adjusted data with the value of the box score and a number of other interaction terms to estimate the value of a defending player . Only one player ranked worse than Sexton in this metric: Atlanta’s Trae Young. Garland wasn’t much better, sitting next to Damian Lillard with a -1.93. Looking ahead, the best defender of the league was Giannis Antetokounmpo, with a 4.46 D-PIPM.
This is only a metric of course, but it is in line with the vision test. The Cavs don’t have many positive defenders. They could lose two in free agency: Dellavedova and Thompson. JB Bickerstaff is known for his defensive skills. But the limitations of this list will continue to be problematic. The best remedy is not a new defensive coordinator or a different scheme. It is best to individual defenders. This should be the goal of the offseason.
Even then, making the postseason won’t be easy. Other Eastern Conference teams are more talented.
The nets will be reloaded, with a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant along with a new coach. The eighth seeded Orlando Magic is not going anywhere. The Chicago Bulls, a chic pick for the playoffs early in the season, have made some major changes. The Washington Wizards will get John Wall back.
Going from last to eighth is a steep climb.
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Alfonzo McKinnie has earned a contract, but he needs a more offensive consistency
Osman didn’t have a steady role during the season, but he had pockets of effectiveness
Darius Garland has had a hard time, but he could still be a future teacher
Larry Nance Jr. transforms into the great modern, solidifies as a fundamental piece of the future
Kevin Love let frustration and misery take over as they plummeted in value
Kevin Porter Jr. shows the potential to be a building block of the franchise
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