What Brandon Clarke’s snub says about the Rookie of the Year vote

The NBA intentionally awards its awards vague titles to promote debate. The MVP award has been around for over 60 years and there has never been a consensus on the definition of “value”. The other prizes are worse. What exactly does “Rookie of the Year” mean? Does it mean the best rookie of a given year? What provided the most value? Or what will be remembered as the most iconic rookie of that year?

By the latter definition, for example, Zion Williamson is a fully justifiable choice as a Rookie of the Year finalist just as Joel Embiid would have been a justifiable choice as a 2017 winner. No rookie, except perhaps Ja Morant, was memorable or thrilling. as much as Williamson. If the question is which rookie provided the most value, it’s Morant by a mile. He was the best player on a possible playoff team.

But the only constant here is the word “rookie”, and with those words come expectations. Generally, rookies shouldn’t contribute to victory. They should post blank numbers that suggest they might someday. This is how Tyreke Evans beat Stephen Curry in 2010 and how Michael Carter-Williams beat Victor Oladipo in 2014. Both were entirely justifiable statistical decisions at the time, but a little critical thinking either way could have. point us in the right direction. We should have known Curry was better than Evans. We should have known that Oladipo was better than Carter-Williams. We let counting the stats get in the way of measuring impact because rookies shouldn’t actually affect winning.

A rookie who has had an impact on the win this season? Brandon Clarke. Few first-year players have ever seemed a rookie quite like Memphis’s surprisingly versatile big man. In some cases, that statement was literal. Clarke, by virtue of his effective field goal percentage of 64.9, was the most efficient rookie in NBA history to shoot at least eight shots per game. He is the first ever rookie to shoot over 60 percent from the field and 35 percent from behind the bow on any significant champion. He is second to the Grizzlies by rebound rate among those who have spent the entire season with Memphis, holds up well from almost all defensive parameters and, above all, made the team materially better when he was on the pitch. Memphis outpaced opponents by 0.5 points for 100 possessions when he played and was overtaken by 1.3 possession points with him on it.

The same cannot be said for Miami Heat rookie Kendrick Nunn, who, by virtue of being named Rookie of the Year finalist, earned more votes than Clarke and will likely finish third in the voting, which was made by the members. of the media.

. This is by no means a slight against Nunn. He did exactly what a rookie should do. He put the numbers. Finishing third among rookies in scoring and fourth in assists is nothing to laugh about.

But most of the value metrics paint those numbers as the totality of Nunn’s contributions. Her VORPs, Box Plus-Minus, and Real Plus-Minus are all negative, while Clarke’s are all positive. Dunn is seventh on his (fairly skinny) team in Win Shares. Clarke is the second. Most importantly, the heat plays best with Nunn from the ground, beating opponents by 4.2 points for every 100 possessions when sitting compared to just 1.7 when playing. Those numbers are enhanced by his place in Miami’s stellar starting lineup. Miami’s starting five outperform opponents by 12.4 points per 100 possessions, for Cleaning the Glass, but remove Jimmy Butler and Nunn’s net score drops to neutral, while removing any other starters drops Nunn into negative territory.

Does this make sense. A young ball carrier couldn’t ask for a better ecosystem than sharing the track with an All-Star scorer (Butler), two of the league’s top shooters like Duncan Robinson and Meyers Leonard (42.9% from 3!) And one of the great men more versatile than Bam Adebayo. Putting the numbers with a defensive focus elsewhere, even on a winning team, isn’t inherently impressive. Being not just a participant but an active driver of that win means more.

It’s a concept we tend to grasp with veterans. The scoring champion doesn’t win MVP every year. Players like Adebayo and Draymond Green make up All-Star teams with no flashy numbers. But the lower standards with which we treat rookies almost punish the few who surpass them. Clarke was a better NBA player than Nunn this season. Apparently, he wasn’t a better rookie.