One of Orlando’s biggest stories right now is the great work the Dallas Mavericks are doing against the Clippers in the first round, mostly courtesy of Luka Doncic.
Normally a team doing better than expected and a young player emerging as a legitimate superstar would only tangentially affect Spurs. In this case, however, the team in question not only shares a conference with San Antonio but also a division, ensuring that the silver and black will have to suffer Luka at least four times a year, which is scary.
If the Mavericks were the only threat in the Southwest to Spurs’ playoff aspirations, that would be fine. Unfortunately, the bubble showed that the entire division is likely to be a gauntlet in the coming years.
The Rockets haven’t made as many waves as the Mavericks so far despite being arguably the best team, because the NBA world has gotten used to their expertise. Yet James Harden, despite his somewhat disappointing playoff performances, remains one of the best players in the league. Russell Westbrook has found his place in a small five-elimination unit that allows him to slash and smash offensive boards, and the daring experiment of essentially playing without big men makes Houston a difficult opponent to plan the game against. The Rockets are expected to win nearly 50 games for the foreseeable future, making them a playoff staple and a hard-to-reach squad for the Spurs.
In addition to the two superstar teams, the division hosts two of the league’s most promising young cores. Neither the Pelicans nor the Grizzlies made it to the postseason this year, but both had good seasons led by the league’s top rookies. Ja Morant has proven he can be the engine of a good attack and by virtue of his health will pick up the hardware, but Zion Williamson also showed superstar potential in the games he was available in. Both rookies also have two other potential stars flanking them in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Ingram, other good young bits and some young veterans around, which should make their transition into trustworthy cornerstones easier.
Then there are the Spurs. Silver and Black have actually set a record of winning against the Southwest this season, but it will be a challenge in the future. San Antonio has no one who can come close to the level of Harden or Doncic, and the young players on the roster, while promising, haven’t shown the kind of potential or production that Morant and Williamson (or even Jackson Jr, and Ingram) have displayed. Assuming the rosters remain the same, it would be optimistic but possible to rank Silver and Black as the third-best team in the division for next season, but any look to the future doesn’t seem so encouraging.
The current landscape would suggest that next season would be the perfect one to bathe in. Basically no team from the West will be in rebuild mode unless someone (the Thunder?) Unexpectedly decides to blow it up. The Spurs could just shift their veterans and give young players all the minutes they can manage and get a high pick, even if the prospects take a step forward. The 2021 draft should be stacked and a good selection would catapult the young core of the Spurs into the same orbit as the Pelicans and Grizzlies.
At the same time, planning for the future at this time comes with its own problems. In addition to the potentially threatening pandemic next season, Spurs don’t really know what will happen with DeMar DeRozan. If he decides to participate, it might be tempting to just go for the postseason in what will likely be one of Gregg Popovich’s last seasons to wander the sidelines, especially considering the important questions surrounding the rest of the division. Kristaps Porzingis’ health is always a concern, and not even Jaren Jackson Jr. has been able to stay on the pitch consistently. Williamson and Morant have the kind of explosive athleticism that can lead to potentially serious injuries. The new Rockets property doesn’t seem as committed to winning as the previous one, and with both Harden and Westbrook it can be hard to get along. Anything could happen in 2021.
The only certainty is that the Southwest is bound to be madly crowded for the next few years. It’s something that has happened before and as recently as the 2014/15 season, when all five teams in the division entered the playoffs.
The biggest difference between then and now is that San Antonio could potentially be the weakest of the bunch unless something changes. Hopefully, there will be a plan in place to prevent the Spurs from becoming the littlest litter in the Southwest after being the best dog for so long.
