After Round 1 of the PGA Championship, the top of the leaderboard includes names like Jason Day, Martin Kaymer, Zach Johnson is Paul Casey. What year is it again?
However, promising Scottie Scheffler is Xander Schauffele they are also exactly in the mix. They enter Round 2 in a very busy draw for third place with other big names like Brooks Koepka is Justin stood up.
And of course we too Brendon Todd, which ruined the evenings of bettors who were sweating a leading first-round bet of the day.
What can we expect for the rest of the tournament? Let’s dive into Thursday’s data and take a look.
But first, a quick note on Gained Strokes, which I will mention often in this article.
(Click here to go to the analysis section.)
Explanation of the traits obtained
Strokes Gained can provide golf bettors, DFS players and fans with much more detail about how a golfer is truly playing measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball into the hole from any distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he earns shots on the court.
Every situation in golf is different: Strokes Gained measures the way players behave in relation to the situation.
In this article, we will touch on a number of Strokes Gained metrics …
- Hits Earned: Off-the-Tee
- Hits Earned: Approach
- Hits Earned: Around Green
- Hits Earned: Put
- Hits Earned: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Hits Earned: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, ball stroke and tee-to-green are the most stable over the long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find advantages in live betting by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well but simply failing to drop putts. Likewise, players with a high SG: Putting numbers can regress moving forward.
Read more about the strokes obtained here.
3 golfers to buy in the second round
Let’s talk about the big picture before diving into specific players.
It is important not to overreact after each opening round. Golf can be quite random over the course of just 18 holes, so you definitely still rely on the pre-tournament data when moving forward with the handicaps.
This is not to say that the first round was not important; it certainly adds more relevant data into the equation. How much you enjoyed it Matthew Fitzpatrick or Rickie Fowler Upon entering, they are unlikely to overcome an eight-shot deficit in such a crowded and talented field.
Likewise, Todd will almost certainly not hit 5-unders in the next three rounds. Read the leaderboard, keep your priors and make small adjustments if necessary.
Anyway, let’s talk about golfers. My final four bets before the tournament were active Jason Day (great), Xander Schauffele (great), Collin Morikawa (well) e Rory McIlroy (Meh).
Jason Day
Day’s performance gave me no reason to hesitate from my pre-tournament position. The former number 1 in the world has looked like himself in recent weeks, not only in terms of all-round play and ball shots, but his health as well. And when Day is right, he has the talent of any golfer in the game.
Additionally, Day’s metrics were encouraging in Round 1 – he earned 4.32 hits earned: Tee-to-Green, the third best score on the field behind only Bernd Wiesberger is Tony Finau. He was fourth on the court in SG: Approach, and if his putter overheats – which is always a possibility given his skills there – he can absolutely go flush and win this tournament.
Tony Finau
Many people will not believe Finau due to prejudices: It cannot close. He has never won a big event before. First, it’s a stupid thought. Secondly, he is absolutely talented enough to win and his metrics after the first round are incredible. His ball hit was as good as it ever was, as Finau reported the best 4.02 hits on the field.
Sure, he’s been pretty mediocre with the rest of his game, which I think he can improve given his recent form and long-term talent. He should be able to take shots off the tee, and if the short game comes back … yahtzee.
Brooks Koepka
And another player to buy by entering Round 2: Brooks Koepka it is in its usual main form. He’s been up and down for the past month, but he’s made contact and is in contention.
Koepka was solid but somewhat insignificant in most areas, but still ended the day tied for third place in the standings. His first-round 66 is particularly encouraging, as his metrics suggest he still has ample room for improvement.
There are many other readers worth buying, especially in DFS, but for the sake of brevity I have limited it to three. Others include Justin stood up is Daniel Berger, but check out the full data below to spot some golfers.
One final note: DraftKings offers a 50% profit increase on all golf bets tomorrow, which means you can really get some nice + EV bets.
How it works: Suppose you bet a golfer on 10/1; if that bet wins, you’d get 50% more, essentially turning that +1000 bet into a +1500. Not bad.
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
3 golfers to vanish in round 2
In terms of player fading, my notes above apply here as well: don’t rely too much on a single round of data; keep largely your priors.
However, I will continue to spot golfers who are excessively hot with the putter but whose approach and play from the tee-to-green do not match. Three examples on Thursdays include Scottie Scheffler, Zach Johnson is Kevin Kisner.
Scottie Scheffler
Scheffler tops the standings after a great first round. And to be fair, Scottie was stellar out of the game, which he is able to replicate.
But I’m not just buying that it’s more than three shots better than the short club court; it has historically been a fairly mediocre putter.
The youngster is also an incredibly volatile golfer and the stakes are now raised to the top of a major. Look at the Rocket Mortgage a couple of weeks ago: in its two rounds, it shot a 79 and a 65.
That’s the question with Scottie: will one of those explosions happen?
Zach Johnson and Kevin Kisner
ZJ and Kisner are a little more complicated. They led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Thursday, but it could go on. They are both great putters every week – the question is whether they are good “four hits”.
The real reason I’m skeptical though is that the greens were the only place they really stood out on Thursday. They’ve each posted Average SG scores: Tee-to-Green, and if this continues they won’t stay long.
Think of it this way: Johnson and Kisner dominated the field on the greens and are still a shot or two back. They just have a lot more room for error if their games keep their shape.
Okay, just talk. Here is the data of all the players for Thursday.
Data earned hits for each player in round 1
(Note: The graph below is interactive. Click / hover to view the data.)
