Don’t hate Dianna Russini for being right about the Tampa Bay Bucs

Sometimes, most of the time, whenever you express an educated opinion on TV, uneducated trolls wriggle out of the holes they live in and spit venom at you. Not because they have statistics or facts to back up their belief. No, that would be too much to ask. Their anger exists simply because you say something they don’t like and their only defense is to go on the attack and yell inconsistently in your general direction.

Enter ESPN NFL analyst Dianna Russini. She appeared on Get up this morning and explained why she thinks Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t make the playoffs this year. She used stats and facts about their division rivals to back up her argument, highlighting the Saints ‘recent dominance and long-term cohesion as well as the Atlanta Falcons’ 6-2 season ending. She also pointed out that QBs who play in Bruce Arians’ system are often hit, which Brady hasn’t faced much recently.

Despite her good reasoning, she faced the firing squad on social media.

It all makes sense. The Saints are a Super Bowl favorite. They have continuity. They have a great QB-trainer combo with the offensive weapons needed to dominate. She didn’t mention defense, but she was tied for 13th place in the NFL in points allowed last year. And yes, the Falcons finished the year 6-2 and also have a lot more experience together than the Bucs and their new quarterback. Everything becomes clear. And yet, here are some of the answers to Rusinni.

The Saints have won the division for the past three years, so not really up for grabs every year, Ernie.

Good point, Jeff. There is an extra place for the playoffs this year. The only problem is that the NFC is stacked, with the 49ers, Seahawks, Packers, Vikings, Eagles, and Cowboys all among the top 15 Super Bowl teams this year. The Bucs are too, but their path to the playoffs is anything but easy.

Beyond their two games each against divisional opponents this season, the Bucs face NFC North and AFC West, arguably the two best divisions in football outside of NFC South. They will host reigning Super Bowl champion the Kansas City Chiefs, travel to Denver to face the upstart Broncos and also face the Packers and Vikings playoff teams. Compete in games against the Rams, Raiders, and Bears, and it’s not hard to envision 8-9 losses.

Finally, someone who brought some solid stats to the party. These are all facts. Winston was a machine to spare, the defense improved late in the season, their kicker was not great and Brady is an exceptional leader. But the reality is, he’s also 43, has been taken a hard time in the past few seasons, and has seen his passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage and passer rating decline over the past two years. He’s playing in a new system under a new coach for the first time in 20 years and while he has a lot of talent around him, it takes time to develop the kind of chemistry he had in New England. It won’t be a turnkey system with no pre-season to fix the issues. It will take time for Tampa Bay to be on the same page.

The Bucs could make the playoffs this year. They could also easily not. Fans are hoping Brady will be excellent for a full season, but men his age get injured more easily than younger guns. And I’m not talking about a big hit. Wear and tear can be just as debilitating. If he breaks down, the Bucs replacement is Blaine Gabbert. It’s not really a great insurance plan. So go ahead Bucs fans, tear Russini up whatever you want. But listen to the facts as you do it and realize that it’s a 50-50 chance (at best) to qualify for the playoffs despite winning the offseason.