A little ahead of time for much of a DFS MLB recap for Saturday night’s Main Slate action, but it’s at least fair to say the Angels need to get things going fast for some of us. With a start at 12:35 pm on Fan Duel and an afternoon Main Slate at 01:05 am on DraftKings tomorrow, we’ll get right into the thick of things. The slate oddly splits between the sites, both have an 8 game Main Slate, FanDuel includes the Orioles at Nationals game but excludes the Braves at Phillies game which the next DraftKings list includes.
MLB DFS Fast Hits: Better HR options, stacks and launchers
Home Run Ratings
Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS choices. Finding the right combination of slackers who will knock one, or rather two, out of the park to lead teammates with them is key to winning GPP. Identifying likely home runs is more complicated than looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a mixture of different predictive statistics for the hitter-pitcher match, I will provide one of the best choices for each team.
Scale: 5-10 medium; 10-20 good; 20-25 very good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: n / A
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman – 13.35
Baltimore Orioles: Renato Nunez – 6.64
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers – 7.66
Chicago Cubs: n / A
Chicago White Sox: n / A
Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto – 4.54
Cleveland Indians: n / A
Colorado Rockies: n / A
Detroit Tigers: CJ Cron – 8.23
Houston Astros: n / A
Kansas City Royals: Ryan O’Hearn – 6.12.2019
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani – 6.48
Los Angeles Dodgers: n / A
Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson – 4.49
Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich – 6.73
Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz – 15.67
New York Mets: Pete Alonso – 11.41
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge – 6.47
Oakland Athletics: n / A
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper – 20.40
Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco – 8.77
San Diego Padres: n / A
San Francisco Giants:n / A
Seattle Mariners:n / A
St. Louis Cardinals: n / A
Tampa Bay rays: Hunter Renfroe – 8.30
Texas Rangers: Todd Frazier – 10.06
Toronto Blue Jays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – 12.46
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto – 12.82
DFS MLB Picks: Proprietary Stacks and Reproductions
(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify the points)
We are picking some exceptional places and teams to consider for potential play here. Be sure to check the property projections for critical updates and monitor the core stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals (FanDuel only) – 1-4 – Trea Turner – Adam Eaton – Starlin Castro – Juan Soto
The Nationals will face the Orioles at home tomorrow early in the game and appear to be in an exceptional position with Asher Wojciechowski on the hill for Baltimore. The right-hander has not been very successful at the major league level and does not offer much hope of a rise on the pitch tomorrow. In his 139 innings as a starting career, “Woj” has allowed 33 home runs (2.14 HR / 9) and has a career of 5.34 xFIP while hitting just 21.9% of hitters. This is not a good pitcher.
The Nationals offer a lot of quality with Juan Soto again at the center of this formation. The dynamic left-handed bat provided by the 21-year-old outfielder is a must in this stack. Soto has a career of .289 / .418 / .559 with a WRC + 53% above the championship average for his career, while he scored 43 of his 56 career home runs in the division. With three batters ahead of him in the intended lineup all doing an effective job of getting to base, Soto could see a huge opportunity to lead tomorrow.
The top six hitters in the domestic formation are all projected for strikeout percentages in teens at the 20% league average that Asdrubal Cabrera leads, this is a relatively demanding hitter formation. Trea Turner has been a home runner in under 20/35 (hr / sb) seasons each of the past two years, offering an enticing mix of power and speed on top of this lineup and filling shortstop well on both sites. Adam Eaton is a slower pace than he once was, but he has maintained a WRC + well above the championship average for the past six years and brings a career percentage based on .367 in this one. The pair makes a great combination over Soto. Starlin Castro had a bad year with the Marlins last season but bravely responded to his best chance with the Nationals so far in 2020. The second baseman has a .361 / .378 / .500 cut on the young season and is a another key piece at the top of the national lineup.
The choice between Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera in formation here would likely be a batting order and ownership decision and I would have gotten shares of both in multiple national formations. For his career, Cabrera has gotten more of his power and RBI production from this side of his division, which would propel me in his direction for an education. I like to pick one of the others and also include Eric Thames in some builds here. Thames is basically an all or nothing home run hitter with its 30% and above strikeout rates coming as reliably as its ISO .258. Each of the three offers the opportunity to fill this national stack with some differentiated play.
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Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals – Twins – 1-2-3-4-7 – Max Kepler – Jorge Polanco – Nelson Cruz – Eddie Rosario – Miguel Sano
The twins appear to be in a good position, drawing one of the highest starting totals on the list with a 5.2 which I expect will push higher against young star Brady Singer. Singer went five innings in each of his three starts and has seven and eight strikeouts on his ledger during that time, however he also gave up two home runs in each of his last two starts. This looks like a vulnerable pitcher that Homer’s Happy Twins lineup can take advantage of. Singer has a decent track record in the minor league but had never been above AA before this season, consistency is a lot to ask for in the beginning.
Twins 2019 record is in the books but they haven’t given up much, finishing fourth so far in 2020 with 22 home runs. They look excellent tomorrow in my home run model, with Nelson Cruz in the lead. With four players leading a home run score above 10 in my model, this is a team that I will definitely keep an eye on tomorrow in Awesemo’s top stack tool, I expect them to be top-notch, but I think the audience of the MLB DFS will also be on them, so we may have to be careful not to change with constructions. In addition to Cruz, the obvious names in this lineup are shortstop Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler, who are expected to hit two spots ahead of Cruz’s big bat. Eddie Rosario has 94 of his 109 career home runs against the right pitcher and draws a great spot here against a weak right foot.
Luis Arraez is by no means a potato masher in this lineup, but he will almost always put the ball into play with his excellent shooting tool and ridiculous patience at the plate. Over the course of his 408 career majors appearances, Arraez has only beaten 7.8% of the time and that rate holds up to over 1,000 or so minors appearances. He just doesn’t lead the ball, which limits overall fantasy production, but Arraez is a player you can work with in lineups for differentiation. Mitch Garver had what may have been his career season last year, but if you want to make it it’s fine as a catch player. I expect it to be popular, however, and prefer to get to the ridiculous power of Miguel Sano, or the quality works that we can find in Marwin Gonzalez and Byron Buxton here. Keep an eye on how all ownership and batting order shake up before making these decisions.
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (DraftKings only) – Phillies – 1-2-3-5-7 – Andrew McCutchen – Rhys Hoskins – Bryce Harper – Didi Gregorius – Jay Bruce
(NOTE: It is important to be aware that this is a seven innings game. There are no changes to the published scoring system, so this is an unusual approach to this list that probably belongs more to tomorrow’s column. We are significantly limiting the opportunities in the backend of the formation by cutting two innings out of the game, so the plays of the final formation become less advisable here. I still think there is enough benefit to leave the hint anyway)
Tomorrow the Braves will start Huascar Ynoa in the first game, although I’m not sure why. Meat for the mincer, I suppose. In 72 AAA innings last season, Ynoa recorded a 5.52 FIP and a 1.73 HR / 9. In AAA. This is a pitcher we can target with some of those big Phillies bats on DraftKings. The top four hitters in the planned Phillies lineup have an average ISO projection of .244 in the Steamer season. Of the four, Bryce Harper is getting both the biggest showing and the highest score in my home run model at 20.40, although Andrew McCutchen and Rhys Hoskins aren’t far behind with both over 17. JT Realmuto, Didi Gregorius and Jay Bruce are all well over 10 even on that scale, this team is projecting power for days against this starter. The Atlanta bullpen is one of the best in the league so far in 2020, but it has also been relatively overworked. If Atlanta is really giving the wolves an appetizer here, we might see it take a few extra lumps in the name of getting them some rest. I’m very curious to see what the seven innings game does to the overall popularity of the Phillies bats in this one.
There isn’t a club in the Phillies line-up that I wouldn’t field at least a little of at this point. Projected ninth hitter, 24-year-old left-handed winger Adam Haseley has a WRC + career well above the league average during his stint among minors and offers an intriguing potentially low-owned wrap-around for just $ 2,900 on DraftKings if this lineup. is seeing extreme popularity. Scott Kingery also offers an underrated MLB DFS quality since the end of this training. Did you know the second bsaeman scored 19 home runs with a .216 ISO in his 500 appearances in 2019? He hits too often and benefited from an overall .337 BABIP, but this is a player who has also stolen 15 bases and is always low-key in a premium position. For just $ 3,300 at DraftKings you can sign up for some stock, despite Kingery getting more of its quality on the other side of its splits.
Human Resources Call: Max Kepler (Gemini)
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