Every NFL season has surprises, and never more than this 2020 campaign, but we usually have a good idea of how each team is performing. We looked to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) to determine how good and bad the 32 teams could be this year.
Using 90% of the 20,000 FPI simulations for the season performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, we identified a cap and a bottom for the expected performance of each NFL team in 2020. Worst Win-Total Projection Scenarios . In other words, about 90% of the sims have the Bills ending with between six and 11 wins.
What can we expect for every NFL team this year? And what will determine which end of this win-win spectrum each team ultimately falls? FPI crosses the numbers, and our NFL Nation reporters say the most important factor in each team is at the top or bottom of the range.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | INDIANA
JAX | KC | LAKE | LAR | LV | MIA | MY
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Ceiling: 11-5 | Ground: 6-10
The biggest variable: So Josh Allen has taken the next step. The third-year quarterback is the biggest catalyst for a team that has made improvements in attacking and returned a top-three defense from 2019. With the addition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Buffalo attempted to create an attack capable of keeping pace. with some of the most powerful units in the conference. On paper, the Bills should be able to do that, but that will also depend heavily on Allen’s development as a passer. – Marcel Louis-Jacques
Ceiling: 8-8 | Ground: 4-12
The biggest variable: Offensive online play. The Dolphins had the worst O-line in the league last season, which played a big role in allowing them to have the lowest-ranked race offense and drop a league-high in the sacks . Whether it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa out there for much of the season, the Dolphins’ QB1 is going to need a lot more help from the running game and better pass protection up front if the team are hoping to move closer to a .500 record in 2020. Miami could have four new starters on the offensive line, including two rookies, so how this unit freezes in an unusual offseason will be a huge variable on the record. of the Dolphins. – Cameron Wolfe
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