The last two days have seen both No. 1, a seed no. 2 and a seed No. 3 lose a game in the first round. For the one round of the postseason that almost universally goes chalk, this kind of randomness should worry bettors to some degree. The bubble has apparently narrowed the gap between the best and worst teams in the playoff camp.
But it is worth remembering: these are individual games. Randomness can occur in every single game. The Toronto Raptors lost the first game of their first-round streak to the Orlando Magic last season. They wiped them out for the rest and won the championship. The Los Angeles Clippers and the Houston Rockets have both won two games against the Golden State Warriors, but no one in their right mind would suggest that this made them equal. These series won’t necessarily be walkovers, but randomness has been at the heart of most of the upheaval in recent days. Trust those teams to regress to the average. Here are the best bets on Thursday
All lines via William Hill Sportsbook
Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers: over 215
The Heat and the Pacers reached 214 points in Race 1, but the path they have taken has been somewhat unsustainable. Victor Oladipo only scored four points. Only two Pacers hit the double digits. Duncan Robinson only went 2 out of 8 from behind the arc. There are too many areas where a pop or two pushes this total over the edge to credibly conquer the under. The Pacers’ top scorer scored 22 points. Realistically, it will be approaching 30 most nights.
So who wins Pacers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread does it hit in over 50% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Heat vs. Pacers spreads to jump on, everything from the advanced model that’s up over $ 4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Rockets -2.5
Chris Paul upped his stats in the fourth quarter, but Game 1 was proof of something that should have been obvious in this series – this is a terrible bout for CP3. Paul’s pick-and-roll game is all about chasing big men, whether in the switches where he can blow from them or the drop cover where he can pull over for easy mid-range looks. The Rockets don’t have great men to hunt, and as Paul goes, the Thunder leave.
Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks: less than 227.5
Give credit to Magic. Their game plan was brilliant in their game 1 upset. The Bucks like to drop their big men in the paint, so Orlando told their big boys to shoot from behind the arc. Gary Clark Jr., who has taken 60 3-pointers all season, attempted 12 in Game 1. Nikola Vucevic tried eight. It was a brilliant maneuver, but it is entirely correctable. Giannis Antetokounmpo is more than capable of defending the perimeter, and if he needs to move to the center, the Magic won’t punish him for it. Milwaukee has offensive issues to work on right now, but Orlando’s move won’t pay off twice in a row. Milwaukee’s defense will do well in Game 2.
Los Angeles Lakers v Portland Trail Blazers: Lakers -6.5
The Lakers defense kept the Blazers just 100 points in Game 1, but the Lakers offense is what ultimately kept the Lakers down to just 93. Portland gave them an open shot after an open shot, but the Lakers they failed to do them. No team is bad enough to go 5 of 32 from behind the arc consistently. It was bad luck and will be corrected in Game 2. The Blazers weren’t exactly lucky on offense, but playing one of the best defenses in the NBA tends to make an offense look worse. What happened to them is far more sustainable than what happened to the Lakers.
