Only three teams are in the right shape to win the AFL premiere 2020. This comes from a statistic that helped predict the last three premieres.
The Fox Footy team On the couch have announced which teams have achieved the Premiership profile in the last six rounds – and the two best teams on the ladder Port Adelaide and Brisbane have not.
They revealed that only West Coast, Geelong and Richmond are currently ticking the correct boxes to win the flag.
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Proof Dons are “confused”
3:08
The Premiership Profile analyzes teams in five key statistical categories.
If you are in the top five in the AFL in this area, tick this box. If you have three or more ticks, adjust the profile.
The statistics are:
– Points from sales difference (how much you get from sales compared to your opponent);
– Points from the front half (how many points do you get with chains starting in the front half);
– Points from the back half (how many points do you get with chains starting in the back half);
– Opposition values per inside 50 (how inefficient opponents are when they go against you within 50);
– Different possessions after the release (how many disputed possessions you gain compared to your opponent outside of the interruptions).
“These are the aspects of the game throughout history that will best help create a formula for success,” said Nick Riewoldt, the great St. Kilda Fox Footy.
“You will most likely win if you are good at these areas.”
For the past three seasons, the Premier has consistently achieved the Premiership profile, while five of the six Grand Finalists have achieved it.
WHO HAS REACHED THE PREMIERSHIP PROFILE?
2019 – Richmond, Geelong, Collingwood
2018 – West Coast, Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Geelong
2017 – Richmond, Adelaide, Sydney, Port Adelaide
Note: These teams have reached the profile throughout the season.
How are the 2020 competitors doing in the past few weeks?
West Coast and Geelong currently tick four of the five boxes each while Richmond ticks three.
Brisbane and St Kilda just miss, ticking two while Port Adelaide Only one box has been checked in the last six weeks.
“We think there are three teams that are really high,” said Riewoldt.
“Three teams that you can reach in two ways. So if you take away one method, they can reach you in another method.”
Star Tiger’s “swinging arm”
1:03
As the Melbourne champions Melry Lyon explained, the ladder leaders showed that they had no other method in their big 12th round loss to Geelong.
“Port Adelaide is the interesting thing there. Your supporters will “wait a damn minute, we’re at the top of the ladder and have been for a long time”. However, you only tick one of those boxes, ”Lyon said Fox Footy.
“It could suggest that they are a little one-way or have a way to do so, which is good enough to win big games, but if it doesn’t work like it did on Friday night (against Geelong), it doesn’t Case was, whether you have an alternative plan to which to go is the question. “
WHICH TEAMS TICK THE PREMIERSHIP PROFILE BOXES ON?
Points from sales difference: West Coast, Geelong, Richmond, Brisbane
Points from the front half: West Coast, Richmond, Brisbane, St. Kilda
Points from the back half: West Coast, Richmond, Geelong
Opposition values per inside 50: West coast, Geelong
Difference in ownership contested after clearance: Geelong, St. Kilda, Port Adelaide
AFL admits mistakes to Carlton
1:03
Jonathan Brown from Brisbane said, “This is a big deal. Do you have a plan to go to when you’re not having your biggest day?
“I think Richmond is the best example of a team that can win both ways and have two modes. In last year’s final series, the first two finals, they had to score a large part of their goals from the back half.
“It’s not their ideal MO, but they won anyway, and then of course they had the game on Grand Final day on their terms and just wiped GWS out of the park. So you won with two different brands throughout September. “
While Geelong made the Premiership profile last year, according to Brownlow medalist Gerard Healy, there is a key difference this year.
“Geelong were a great team in the front half last year, they turned the ball and got great groundballs, but they missed the game in the back half because they could score,” he said.
“This is one thing they turned upside down – now you can win either way.”
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