The 2020 NBA draft lottery, originally scheduled for May 19, will now take place on August 20, two weeks from now. In addition to happening three months later than usual, this year’s lottery also looks a bit different, as the ongoing coronavirus pandemic will almost certainly make it impossible for the NBA to bring representatives of the last 14 teams to one place. .
While waiting to see what the league has in mind for this year’s event, here are some updates and reminders on the 2020 NBA draft lottery:
The bottom eight teams are already locked in their lottery seats
Much has been done in the past 24 hours on the Wizards (24-44), who are participating in the NBA’s summer recovery, slipping under the inactive Hornets (23-42) in the Eastern Conference rankings.
Fortunately for Hornets fans – and unfortunately for Wizards supporters – the lottery odds for these two teams he will not it depends on which team ends up with the best overall record. For the bottom eight teams in the NBA, a bright side of not receiving an invitation to Orlando this summer for a reboot is that their place in the top eight lottery teams has been blocked, based on the championship standings on March 11.
The Hornets will have the eighth best odds and the Bulls will have the seventh best odds even though the Wizards go 0-8 this summer and drop below both teams in the standings.
The race for seed no. 8 in the Western Conference could affect the lottery odds
With non-Orlando teams stuck in the top eight lottery positions, the other six places will be determined by two factors:
- Which six Orlando teams do not make the playoffs.
- What were their records on 11 March.
This is great news for a team like Phoenix. After winning their first three games in Orlando while the Grizzlies lost their first four, the Suns are very much alive in the race for seed no. 8 in the West. It will still take a good finish and some luck for the Suns to qualify for a play-in tournament, but we assume they do.
In that scenario, if the Suns win the play-in tournament and earn a post-season seat, their first-round pick would be 15th overall, the best of the playoff teams, as they entered the break with a record of 26-39, worse than Orlando or Brooklyn.
If they do to lose a play-in tournament, Phoenix would end up with the 10th best chance in the lottery, ahead of the rest of Orlando’s non-playoff teams in addition to the Wizards, which were the only one of 22 teams invited with a worse record than the Suns on March 11.
Essentially, if you want to determine the second half of the lottery standings, you just need to sort Orlando’s 22 teams based on their March 11 records, from worst to first, then remove the 16 teams that finish in the playoffs.
The Grizzlies could theoretically still keep their first round pick
The Grizzlies owe their choice for the first round of 2020 to the Celtics, but it includes the first six caps.
As long as Memphis makes the playoffs, that protection doesn’t really matter: Boston would get the pick. However, with the Grizzlies’ take on the No. 8 slipping, there is still an external possibility that they can keep the choice.
Let’s say Memphis drops from position 8 and loses a play-in tournament or loses qualification for a play-in altogether. In that scenario, the Grizzlies would have entered the lottery with the 14th best odds, as they had a better record on March 11 than any other lottery team. This would give them a 2.4% chance of entering the top four, where their choice would be protected.
Those aren’t good odds. In all likelihood, skipping the playoffs would only mean that the Grizzlies sent the Celtics pick number 14 instead of a selection in the 15-17 range. However, the external possibility of another better choice would be at least a little silver lining if Memphis can’t grab that No. 8. If the Grizzlies cling to this year’s pick, they should have an unprotected first rounder in Boston in 2021.
In the East, the Nets we owe a lottery-protected prize a Timberwolves and would keep it if they drop out of the postseason. However, the struggles of the Mages have essentially ruled out this possibility. Another win in Brooklyn or a defeat in Washington will ensure the Nets reach the playoffs and send their pick to Minnesota.
Current lottery odds
Listed below are the odds for teams not invited to Orlando, who will occupy the top eight places in the lottery rankings.
The numbers in the graph indicate the percentages, then the Warriors, for example, they have a 14% chance of getting pick number 1 and a 47.9% chance of finishing in number 5. If a team’s odds are listed as> 0, that percentage is less than 0.1 %.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSW | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CLE | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIN | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
| ATL | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.8 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – |
| THE | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.8 | 0.6 | – | – | – |
| NYK | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.6 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| WHO | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | > 0 | – |
| NO | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | > 0 |
The tentative odds for the last six places, assuming the Grizzlies cling to the No. 8, can be found right here.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
